2011年2月西北太平洋扰动91W

yulouex

91WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-7.0N-144.0E

（饶了我吧，附件上不来）

附近就一小块风切较弱的区域，希望渺茫

北落师门

没希望的，正常的东风波。这种货色，可无视，等RSMC Tokyo编serial number再看。以后这种几乎没系望的系统等RSMC Tokyo编内部号再发也不迟。

phoonfan

楼上91W不是东风波，赤道西风和冷平流的撮合产物

yulouex

JTWC给了POOR的评级，螺旋性也略微好了
周围风切不强，未来被JTWC编号的可能性可能有10%

北落师门

WWPQ80 PGUM 242032
SPSPQ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
632 AM CHST FRI FEB 25 2011
PMZ161-171-251900-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
632 AM CHST FRI FEB 25 2011
...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST IN YAP STATE...
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN YAP STATE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AT 600 AM CHST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION OF THE DISTURBANCE
WAS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND 420
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR NEAR LATITUDE 5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140 DEGREES EAST.
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF KOROR ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREAS NEAR KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND NGULU IN YAP STATE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
KOROR...KAYANGEL AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND 2 TO 4
INCHES FOR YAP...NGULU...FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR NGULU...KAYANGEL AND
KOROR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.
WAVES GENERATED BY THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH AN EXISTING NORTH SWELL WILL MAKE BOATING
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU WITH COMBINED SEAS RISING TO
BETWEEN 14 AND 15 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR WEATHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AVAILABLE MEDIA SOURCES...THE
INTERNET...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES TO SECURE
SMALL BOATS AND ANY PERSONAL PROPERTY THAT MAY BE EASILY BLOWN
AROUND IS RECOMMENDED.
RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO REFER TO THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL
UPDATE THIS STATEMENT AS NEEDED.
$$
WILLIAMS

关岛发了个海上预警。

北落师门

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 139E WSW 15 KT.
JMA昨天00UTC起定为LPA，不过数值不看好。

北落师门

3# phoonfan

不好意思，我没看大气环流，只是评经验，2-4月热带系统以东风波居多。

yulouex

数值还是比较看好的,很多都认为能上TD了

北落师门

8# yulouex


TD在西北太没意义，等JMA发GW再说。

yulouex

5家数值支持