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发表于 2014-8-2 23:34
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JTWC 第23报 预测分析：
WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 11W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 75 KNOTS (60
TO 135 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 130-NM DIAMETER, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A 29-NM
ROUND EYE, THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND TRACK MOTION. A 021013Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH EXTENSIVE
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 KNOTS (T6.5) TO 140
KNOTS (T7.0). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, STY 11W HAS
MAINTAINED EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
SYSTEM TO INSULATE THE CORE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. STY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSES DEPICT A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR
POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING
FROM TAIWAN TO ABOUT 131E LONGITUDE. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS DUE TO
THE POSITION OF TS 12W, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STY 11W TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
UKMO, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH A 165-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. STY
11W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WITH GREATER SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, HOWEVER,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO VARYING
DEGREES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD
TOWARD KYUSHU DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 36 AND THE
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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发表于 2014-7-31 18:35
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