1411号台风“夏浪”（1411W）官方机构预报报文

将臣

JTWC 第 1 报：低信心预测，预报分析如下文。

本站相关追击分析帖：《土潤溽暑雙颱現，大雨時行一壺漿——1411、1412號颱風追擊帖》

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS GROWN IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 281016Z
PARTIAL TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS POORLY DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHILE THE LLCC
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
POSITIONAL FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF AMBIGUITY SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, DEPICTS A CHAOTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MODIFYING INTO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS
TROUGH PRESSING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED GROWTH IN THE
CONVECTION WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY LOW (05
TO 15 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
MID TO LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
STR THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF TINIAN AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY DURING THIS
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS JAPAN TRANSITS WELL NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
DRIVING TD 11W NORTHWESTWARD. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM PROCEEDS TOWARDS THE MARIANAS ISLANDS AS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING MODERATE VWS WHILE ALONG
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWEST ALONG THE STR TO THE NORTH. CONTINUED GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO TYPHOON STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL AND SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE. LIMITED MODEL
GUIDANCE TRACK GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH AT
GREATLY VARIED INTENSITIES. GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE, AND HWRF SUPPORT
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM
WHILE EGRR SHOWS THE SAME TRACK AT A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE.
NAVGEM DISPLAYS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO AS IT QUICKLY WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM AS IT BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING
THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ALL CONVECTION. DUE TO THE
CURRENT CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH, THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE SOME
VALIDITY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

li0627

中间报命名
      
台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年07月29日13時20分 発表
<29日12時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 12度35分(12.6度)
        東経 148度00分(148.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 280km(150NM)
<30日12時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
        東経 145度30分(145.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)

li0627

美军00Z已经升格TS 45kt

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 290008Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40 TO 45
KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAKER WINDS (25
TO 35 KNOT) OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

kitty8123

CMA跟进

SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 290300 UTC
00HR 12.6N 148.0E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 230KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 13KM/H
P+12HR 13.3N 147.1E 988HPA 25M/S
P+24HR 14.0N 145.6E 970HPA 35M/S
P+36HR 14.6N 144.0E 960HPA 40M/S
P+48HR 15.0N 141.9E 950HPA 45M/S
P+60HR 15.3N 140.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 16.0N 139.3E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 17.5N 137.7E 930HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 19.5N 136.5E 930HPA 55M/S=

li0627

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 290600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC
00HR 12.8N 147.8E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS WINDS 230KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 13KM/H
P+12HR 13.5N 146.7E 980HPA 30M/S
P+24HR 14.3N 145.3E 970HPA 35M/S
P+36HR 15.0N 143.6E 960HPA 40M/S
P+48HR 15.6N 141.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+60HR 16.1N 140.3E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 16.8N 139.1E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 18.5N 137.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 20.3N 136.9E 930HPA 55M/S=
NNNN

yz0330

** WTPQ20 BABJ 291200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC
00HR 13.2N 147.3E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS WINDS 230KM NORTHEAST
280KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 13.8N  146.1E  980HPA  30M/S
P+24HR 14.4N 144.6E 970HPA 35M/S
P+36HR 14.8N  143.1E  960HPA  40M/S
P+48HR 15.4N 141.4E 950HPA 45M/S
P+60HR 15.9N  140.4E  940HPA  50M/S
P+72HR 16.6N 139.4E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 18.6N 137.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 20.6N 136.7E 930HPA 55M/S=

yz0330

台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年07月29日21時45分 発表
<29日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 13度00分(13.0度)
        東経 147度30分(147.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        992hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 280km(150NM)
<30日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
        東経 144度25分(144.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        980hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 190km(100NM)
<31日21時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
        東経 142度00分(142.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 280km(150NM)
<01日21時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 16度30分(16.5度)
        東経 140度25分(140.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        955hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 390km(210NM)
<02日21時の予報>
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 18度25分(18.4度)
        東経 139度30分(139.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
予報円の半径        370km(200NM)
<03日21時の予報>
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯 20度00分(20.0度)
        東経 138度55分(138.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
予報円の半径        480km(260NM)

yz0330

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TS 11W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 291146Z GMI IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY RADAR FIXES. A 291114Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 45 TO 50 KNOT
CORE WINDS WITH EXTENSIVE 30 TO 35-KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE
ASCAT IMAGE, CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
55 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK TUTT CELL TO
THE WEST. TS 11W TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM 29/06Z TO 29/09Z
THEN TURNED WESTWARD. RECENT RADAR FIXES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WESTWARD TRACK AS OF 1330Z. TS 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. DUE TO THE SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED, THE CPA TO GUAM HAS CHANGED BY 7 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS.
   B. AS THE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 96W) TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR SHOULD MAINTAIN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL STEER TS 11W
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 100 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR TAU 72. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE BUT THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS COMPLEX WITH TUTT CELLS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES
SLIGHTLY AS THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES. NAVGEM PRESENTS THE MOST
UNREALISTIC SCENARIO WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE STR, THEREFORE,
THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO ECMWF AND
GFS. TS HALONG SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. DUE TO THE
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

海绵宝宝

TS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 30 July 2014

<Analyses at 30/12 UTC>
Scale        -
Intensity        -
Center position        N14°10'(14.2°)
E143°50'(143.8°)
Direction and speed of movement        W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure        992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more        SE330km(180NM)
NW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity        Strong
Center position of probability circle        N14°40'(14.7°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement        W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure        975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle        130km(70NM)
Storm warning area        ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity        Strong
Center position of probability circle        N15°20'(15.3°)
E139°25'(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement        WNW Slowly
Central pressure        960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle        200km(110NM)
Storm warning area        ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity        Very Strong
Center position of probability circle        N16°35'(16.6°)
E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement        NW Slowly
Central pressure        955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle        300km(160NM)
Storm warning area        ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle        N18°55'(18.9°)
E137°35'(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement        NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle        370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle        N21°30'(21.5°)
E137°00'(137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement        N 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle        480km(260NM)

yz0330

WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 301001Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. THIS IMAGE SHOWS STRONGER,
DEEPER CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO THE 300034Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWING WEAKER WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE TUTT HAS WEAKENED
AND SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
DEPICTS THIS NORTHERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND
AND SHEARING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE
AND AND RECENT RADAR FIXES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION (30/12Z). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50
KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 11W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT POLEWARD AS THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION (INVEST 96W) TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 WITH UKMO AND
GFDN TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND MAKES MORE
METEOROLOGICAL SENSE WITH THE RESPECT TO HOW THE MONSOON DEPRESSION
WILL INFLUENCE THE STEERING PATTERN. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT STRUGGLES WITH THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BY TAU 24 AS
THE VWS RELAXES.
   C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND UKMO, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSITY FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN