澳大利亚以西16S.Dianne 衰微中

北落师门

组织改善，预计下报命名，对西澳陆地影响不大。

北落师门

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:19S111E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1249UTC 16 FEBRUARY 2011

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dianne was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal eight south (18.8S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal two east (111.2E)
Recent movement :  near stationary
Maximum winds   : 40 knots
Central pressure: 986 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1200 UTC 17
February.

Wind above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre by 0000 UTC 17 February.
Very rough seas and moderate swell.
  
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre. Rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 17 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.0 south 110.8 east
                        Central pressure 977 hPa.
                        Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 17 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 19.6 south 110.7 east
                        Central pressure 970 hPa.
                        Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 16 February 2011.

WEATHER PERTH

BOM已命名了。

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1311 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.8S
Longitude: 111.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 19.0S 110.8E:     060 [110]:  050  [095]:  977
+24: 17/1200: 19.6S 110.7E:     090 [165]:  060  [110]:  970
+36: 18/0000: 20.2S 110.5E:     120 [225]:  070  [130]:  962
+48: 18/1200: 21.3S 110.3E:     155 [285]:  080  [150]:  954
+60: 19/0000: 22.5S 110.0E:     200 [375]:  085  [155]:  949
+72: 19/1200: 23.6S 110.2E:     250 [465]:  075  [140]:  957
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Dianne has formed well off the northwest coast of Western
Australia.

Deep convection has developed to the northwest of the LLCC in the last few
hours. Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow.  Dvorak; DT of 3.0,
based on curved band wrap of about 0.6. MET is 3.5 based on D trend with PAT of
3.0. The FT is therefore 3.0 based on the DT/PAT.

The system lies in a low to moderate shear environment with CIMSS indicating
shear of 10.6 m/s at 1200UTC. Ocean temperatures are above 28C providing a
favourable environment for the system to develop. The system is expected to
develop into a severe tropical cyclone within
36 hours.   

The system is forecast to develop at the climatological rate over the next 48
hours, with peak intensity of 85 knots [10 minute wind] at 1800UTC 18 February.
Dianne is then expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing
shear.

The system is near stationary. The passage of an upper trough is likely to cause
the system to move generally southwards over the next 3-4 days. The models show
a number of scenarios, it is most likely the system will remain off the coast,
however there is a slight chance the system may take a more southeasterly track
that will take it close enough to the coast to cause gales from Exmouth to Cape
Cuvier later on Thursday or more likely on Friday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

北落师门

深层对流在中心附近开始发展。路径调东，对西澳海岸可能有影响。

li0627

#2

yulouex

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 8:56 am WST on Thursday 17 February 2011


A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and
Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category 1 was estimated to be
385 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
480 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and is near stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne remains near stationary well off the northwest coast.
Diane is expected to drift slowly south during Thursday. If it moves closer to
the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal
areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay late on Thursday or Friday. Gales with
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend east to Onslow and south to
Overlander Roadhouse later on Friday.

FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Exmouth and Coral Bay need to prepare for
cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch,
portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Other communities between Onslow and Overlander Roadhouse should listen for the
next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dianne at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.3 degrees South 111.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 986 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Thursday 17 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling   1300 659 210

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1910 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 111.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 19.7S 111.5E:     060 [110]:  050  [095]:  980
+24: 17/1800: 20.3S 111.3E:     090 [165]:  060  [110]:  972
+36: 18/0600: 21.2S 111.0E:     120 [225]:  070  [130]:  964
+48: 18/1800: 22.3S 110.8E:     155 [285]:  080  [150]:  955
+60: 19/0600: 23.5S 110.7E:     200 [375]:  080  [150]:  955
+72: 19/1800: 24.5S 111.0E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  962
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Dianne is located well off the northwest coast of Western
Australia.
Deep convection has persisted to the northwest of the LLCC in the last few
hours. Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow.  Dvorak intensity is
steady, with a DT of 3.0, based on a shear pattern.
The system lies in a moderate shear environment. Ocean temperatures are above
28C providing a favourable environment for the system to develop. The system is
expected to develop into a severe tropical cyclone within 36 hours as it moves
southwards and the shear decreases.   
The system is forecast to develop at the climatological rate over the next 48
hours, with peak intensity of 85 knots [10 minute wind] at 1800UTC 18 February.
Dianne is then expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing
shear.
The system has been slow moving over the past 12 hours. Recent microwave imagery
indicates the system has stopped its westward movement. The passage of an upper
trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next
3-4 days. The models show a number of scenarios, it is most likely the system
will remain off the coast, however there is a slight chance the system may take
a more southeasterly track that will take it close enough to the coast to cause
gales from Exmouth to Cape Cuvier later on Thursday or on Friday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0159 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 111.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/1200: 19.9S 111.7E:     060 [110]:  050  [095]:  978
+24: 18/0000: 20.6S 111.1E:     090 [165]:  060  [110]:  970
+36: 18/1200: 21.6S 110.8E:     120 [225]:  070  [130]:  962
+48: 19/0000: 22.5S 110.7E:     155 [285]:  080  [150]:  953
+60: 19/1200: 23.9S 110.9E:     200 [375]:  080  [150]:  953
+72: 20/0000: 25.7S 111.6E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  961
REMARKS:
Deep convection has persisted to the northwest of the LLCC as the system
continues to experience southeast shear of around 20 knots. Satellite imagery
shows good equatorward outflow. Early morning visible satellite imagery shows a
curved band with a DT of 3.5. Average DT over 3 hours remains at 3.0, which is
in agreement with the MET. FT and CI held at 3.0.
The system is over ocean temperatures above 28C. Shear decreases on Friday with
development becoming more favourable and thus the system is expected to develop
into a severe tropical cyclone late Friday.
Peak intensity of around 80 knots [10 minute wind] is expected during Saturday
19th February. Dianne is then expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and
increasing shear when it gets to a latitude south of 26S.
The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours.  The passage of an upper
trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next
3-4 days, with the steering finely balanced. The models show a number of
scenarios, it is most likely the system will remain off the coast, however there
is a chance the system may take a more southeasterly track that will take it
close enough to the coast to cause gales from Exmouth to Coral Bay late Thursday
or Friday, with gales possible between Onslow and Overlander Roadhouse later
Friday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

北落师门

加强中，将靠近西澳中南部海岸。

北落师门

IDW20400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Cape Preston to Carnarvon
Issued at 12:08 pm WST on Thursday 17 February 2011

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 11:00 am WST a Tropical Cyclone Dianne was located within 30 nautical miles
of
latitude nineteen decimal three degrees South (19.3S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal seven degrees East (111.7E)
about 210 nautical miles northwest of Exmouth
Recent movement : near stationary
Maximum winds   : 50 knots
Central pressure: 978 hectopascals

Forecast to be within 60 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal nine degrees South (19.9S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal five degrees East (111.5E)
about 190 nautical miles northwest of Exmouth
with maximum winds of 50 knots
at 11:00 pm WST Thursday

Forecast to be within 90 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal seven degrees South (20.7S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal zero degrees East (111.0E)
about 190 nautical miles west northwest of Exmouth
with maximum winds of 60 knots
at 11:00 am WST Friday

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 40 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds above 48 knots, increasing to 60 knots near the centre within
24 hours. Combined seas and swell rising to 5.0 metres.

GALE WARNING
Within 90 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots. Combined seas and swell to 4.0 metres.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Cape Preston to Carnarvon
North to northeast winds 20/30 knots east of Northwest Cape tending east to
northeast winds 20/30 knots between Northwest Cape and Coral Bay, extending
south to Carnarvon Friday morning. Squalls to 45 knots in showers and
thunderstorms. Seas to 2.5 metres and swell 2.0 to 3.0 metres.

The next warning will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 17 February.