世纪气象云

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

楼主: 北落师门
收起左侧

[南半球] 澳大利亚以西16S.Dianne 衰微中

[复制链接]
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 13:21 | 显示全部楼层
路径东调,CAT2了。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 15:22 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0704 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.2S
Longitude: 111.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/1800: 19.9S 111.2E:     060 [110]:  055  [100]:  976
+24: 18/0600: 20.8S 110.8E:     090 [165]:  060  [110]:  972
+36: 18/1800: 21.8S 110.6E:     120 [225]:  070  [130]:  964
+48: 19/0600: 23.0S 111.0E:     155 [285]:  075  [140]:  960
+60: 19/1800: 25.0S 111.7E:     200 [375]:  070  [130]:  964
+72: 20/0600: 27.3S 112.5E:     250 [465]:  060  [110]:  972
REMARKS:
Deep convection has persisted to the northwest of the LLCC as the system
continues to experience southeast shear of around 20 knots. Satellite imagery
shows good equatorward outflow. Curved band wrap of 0.8-0.9 has been sustained
on recent visible images. MET agrees and FT is set at 3.5. ADT is also running
at 3.5.  Latest ASCAT pass does not indicate winds above 45 knots but resolution
and wind gradient issues could be a factor. Final intensity estimate is set at
50 knots [10-min].

The system is over ocean temperatures above 28C. Shear decreases on Friday with
development becoming more favourable and thus the system is expected to develop
into a severe tropical cyclone late Friday. There is some uncertainty however
with considerable variance in model trends and some indications in the satellite
imagery [TPW, WV and appearance of low level cloud in VIS imagery]  that dry air
may be impeding intensification.

Peak intensity is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then
expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets
to a latitude south of 25S.

The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours.  The passage of an upper
trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next
3-4 days, with the steering finely balanced. The models show a number of
scenarios, it is most likely the system will remain off the coast, however there
is a chance the system may take a more southeasterly track.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 15:24 | 显示全部楼层
后期靠近西澳中南部海岸,对西澳海岸有较大影响,后期海温降低,受寒流影响,强度会减弱。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 21:13 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1305 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 110.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0000: 19.1S 110.3E:     060 [110]:  060  [110]:  970
+24: 18/1200: 19.8S 109.9E:     090 [165]:  065  [120]:  966
+36: 19/0000: 20.9S 109.9E:     150 [280]:  070  [130]:  963
+48: 19/1200: 22.0S 110.2E:     210 [390]:  075  [140]:  958
+60: 20/0000: 23.7S 111.0E:     250 [465]:  065  [120]:  966
+72: 20/1200: 25.9S 111.4E:     290 [535]:  050  [095]:  977
REMARKS:
During the day satellite imagery showed a developing curved band. From about
0530 UTC the curved band structure weakened with a large break appearing.
However, deep convection has remained near the centre. Microwave imagery
revealed the low level centre more closely associated with the deep convection
than previously, despite the system remaining under moderate SE shear. Dvorak
analysis was based more on MET with a pattern T being difficult to apply. With a
developing trend being assigned MET=PT=FT=4.0. This is in reasonable agreement
with SATCON but differs from ADT which is around 3.0. Recent raw ADT figures
show an increasing trend.   

Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow. The system is over ocean
temperatures above 28C. Shear decreases on Friday with development becoming more
favourable and thus the system is expected to develop into a severe tropical
cyclone during Friday. There is some uncertainty however with considerable
variance in model trends.

Peak intensity is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then
expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets
to a latitude south of 25S.

The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours.  The passage of an upper
trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next
3-4 days, with the steering finely balanced. The models show a number of
scenarios, it is most likely the system will remain off the coast, however there
is a chance the system may take a more southeasterly track.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
发表于 2011-2-17 23:59 | 显示全部楼层
WTXS33 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 110.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 110.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.9S 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.5S 109.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 21.6S 109.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 22.9S 109.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.5S 109.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 28.8S 108.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 33.6S 110.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 171059Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS A 171217Z AMSU IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45
TO 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGES AND HAS, CONSEQUENTLY, TRACKED ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. OVERALL, TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK
WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (UKMO, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, GFS,
JGSM AND WBAR) IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36-48 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMO, WBAR AND JGSM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
COOLER SST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-18 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1922 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.1S
Longitude: 110.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0600: 19.7S 110.5E:     060 [110]:  060  [110]:  968
+24: 18/1800: 20.5S 110.2E:     090 [165]:  070  [130]:  963
+36: 19/0600: 21.6S 110.2E:     150 [280]:  075  [140]:  959
+48: 19/1800: 23.0S 110.4E:     210 [390]:  070  [130]:  962
+60: 20/0600: 24.9S 110.6E:     250 [465]:  060  [110]:  971
+72: 20/1800: 26.9S 110.8E:     290 [535]:  045  [085]:  980
REMARKS:
During the day satellite imagery showed a developing curved band. From about
0530 UTC the curved band structure weakened with a large break appearing.
However, deep convection has remained near the centre. The system remains under
moderate easterly shear, however there are indications that the shear is
starting to decrease. Dvorak analysis yielded a DT of 3.5 based on a shear
pattrern. The FT was based more on MET with a pattern T being difficult to
apply. With a developing trend being assigned MET=PT=FT=4.0. This is less than
SATCON which indicates a 60-65kt system but little more than ADT which is around
3.0-3.5.
Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow. The system is over ocean
temperatures above 28C. Shear continues to decrease on Friday with development
becoming more favourable and thus the system is expected to develop into a
severe tropical cyclone during Friday. There is some uncertainty however with
considerable variance in model trends.
Peak intensity is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then
expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets
to a latitude south of 25S.
The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours, although a slight
southerly motion is now apparent.  The passage of an upper trough is likely to
cause the system to move generally southwards over the next 3-4 days, with the
steering finely balanced. The models show a number of scenarios, but it is
looking increasingly likely the system will move south to southwesterly away
from the WA coast. However, there still remains a chance that it will take a
more southeasterly track and affect the west coast of the state.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-18 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0114 UTC 18/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 20.0S
Longitude: 110.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards:  south southwest [204 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/1200: 20.9S 109.4E:     060 [110]:  060  [110]:  970
+24: 19/0000: 21.7S 108.9E:     090 [165]:  070  [130]:  962
+36: 19/1200: 22.5S 108.9E:     120 [225]:  070  [130]:  960
+48: 20/0000: 23.3S 108.8E:     155 [285]:  060  [110]:  969
+60: 20/1200: 24.3S 108.5E:     200 [375]:  050  [095]:  976
+72: 21/0000: 25.5S 107.6E:     250 [465]:  040  [075]:  984
REMARKS:
LLCC is embedded in LG giving DT 4.5, but there is enough uncertainty in
position to allow for T3.5-4.5. Trend is D- hence MET is 3.5. PAT is 4.0 and FT
is set to PAT. ADT is running lower than this but AMSU estimates are running
higher.
The system remains under moderate easterly shear [6.7m/s from the east], however
shear is expected to decrease by this evening. The system is over ocean
temperatures above 28C. With shear expected to decrease the system is expected
to develop into a severe tropical cyclone late today.  However there is
uncertainty however with considerable variance in model trends and recent poor
performance of both STIPS ad models in handling intensity trends for systems
moving this far south.
Peak intensity is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then
expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets
to a latitude south of 25S.
The models show a number of track scenarios, but the spread of track guidance
has decreased and it is looking increasingly likely the system will move south
to southwesterly away from the WA coast. However, there still remains a chance
that it will take a more southeasterly track and affect the west coast of the
state.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-18 10:58 | 显示全部楼层
没有明显变化,今天后期进入亚热带区,环境将逐渐变差。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-18 15:16 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 18/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.2S
Longitude: 109.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards:  southwest [228 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/1800: 20.9S 108.9E:     060 [110]:  055  [100]:  975
+24: 19/0600: 21.9S 108.3E:     090 [165]:  060  [110]:  970
+36: 19/1800: 22.5S 108.0E:     120 [225]:  050  [095]:  976
+48: 20/0600: 23.1S 107.4E:     155 [285]:  045  [085]:  981
+60: 20/1800: 24.0S 106.5E:     200 [375]:  040  [075]:  984
+72: 21/0600: 25.3S 105.1E:     250 [465]:  035  [065]:  988
REMARKS:
LLCC is embedded in MG giving DT 4.0. 24hr trend is S hence MET is 3.5. Applying
an EIR analysis to the 0330Z image [despite not being a true eye pattern] gave a
similar DT. PAT is 3.5 and FT is set to PAT. ADT is running lower than this but
AMSU estimates are running higher.

There is a significant area of convection to the northwest of the CDO that is
likely to influence the motion and intensity of the system. Dianne has been near
stationary for some time now and upwelling may be reducing the ocean heat
content and affecting intensity.

Shear at 00Z was analysed as remaining steady at 6.7m/s from the east southeast.
This is consistent with appearance in IR imagery. Shear should improve slightly
during Friday night and then by Sunday the system should be experiencing
northerly shear and be over much cooler waters.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-18 15:17 | 显示全部楼层
环境转差,强度预期调低。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|世纪气象云 | | | 关于我们

GMT+8, 2024-3-28 21:56 , Processed in 0.023789 second(s), 19 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表