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WTXS33 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.9S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.5S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.6S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.9S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.5S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.8S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 33.6S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 171059Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS A 171217Z AMSU IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45
TO 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGES AND HAS, CONSEQUENTLY, TRACKED ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. OVERALL, TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK
WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (UKMO, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, GFS,
JGSM AND WBAR) IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36-48 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMO, WBAR AND JGSM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
COOLER SST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
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