000
URNT12 KNHC 132100 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 13/20:40:20Z
B. 21 deg 41 min N
085 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 3037 m
D. 63 kt
E. 093 deg 0 nm
F. 206 deg 74 kt
G. 107 deg 12 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 8 C / 3055 m
J. 14 C / 3048 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0518A PAULA OB 22 CCA
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 19:03:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 104 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
000
URNT12 KNHC 141123
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 14/11:09:30Z
B. 22 deg 39 min N
084 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 3079 m
D. 61 kt
E. 258 deg 10 nm
F. 325 deg 46 kt
G. 263 deg 11 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 11 C / 3061 m
J. 13 C / 3032 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0618A PAULA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 72 KT S QUAD 08:50:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 50 KT NE QUAD 11:12:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 13 C 238 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
000
URNT12 KNHC 142345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 14/23:18:40Z
B. 23 deg 03 min N
082 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 3099 m
D. 39 kt
E. 053 deg 24 nm
F. 153 deg 44 kt
G. 050 deg 14 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 5 C / 3052 m
J. 12 C / 3042 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0718A PAULA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 23:14:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
FREQUENT LIGHTNING NEAR CENTER
LGT OCNL MDT TURBC NE QUAD
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Tropical Depression PAULA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 150834
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010
PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM CUBAN
STATIONS SINCE THE CENTER PASSED HAVANA...AND WHEN THE CENTER
PASSED VARADERO THE REPORTED PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1010 MB. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...
WITH ONLY ONE CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
BASED ON THE CUBAN DATA...PAULA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 085/12. PAULA IS BEING STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD OR SOUTHWARD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A SIZEABLE SPREAD ON WHEN THE SOUTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION. THE TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPS.
PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA AFTER 24 HR. SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 48 HR...SO THE
REMNANT LOW MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
Tropical Depression PAULA
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ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1500 UTC FRI OCT 15 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 79.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 79.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 79.5W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
IP卡
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-10-14 11:24
显身卡