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[北大西洋] 2010年10月北大西洋18L-PAULA

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发表于 2010-10-9 10:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动98L

世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明

  报告人:sylar
所属团队:21cma
扰动编号:98L
编号时间: 09 OCT 2010 0115Z
初始强度:25kts.1007mb
扰动定位:13.4N.78.4W(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在区域:北大西洋
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构較差;云图螺旋性一般
  2、系统环境分析:辐合状态一般;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度 28C
3、系统现状其他分析: 無
数值预报:暫時沒有數值支持
个人评估:發展機會低
  XX
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见: 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。


20101009_0115_goes-13_ir_98L_INVEST_25kts_1007mb_13_4N_78_4W_100pc.jpg

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THEREAFTER.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
发表于 2010-10-12 06:18 | 显示全部楼层
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND
AN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND
PAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BEYOND
THAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
A BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

INITIAL      11/2100Z 16.0N  84.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N  84.8W    55 KT
24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N  86.2W    65 KT
36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.6N  86.6W    70 KT
48HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N  86.4W    70 KT
72HR VT     14/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W    70 KT
96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N  85.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W    65 KT
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-12 10:10 | 显示全部楼层
18L--" PAULA"在洪都拉斯东北近海处,强烈的爆发:y7

55kts-998mb,将在洪都拉斯湾打转加强。

WTNT01 KNGU 112101   
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM PAULA (18L) WARNING NR 001   
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA/111800Z OCT 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL STORM PAULA (18L) WARNING NR 001   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18L
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 83.7W     
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 83.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 16.8N 84.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 18.3N 86.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 19.6N 86.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 20.0N 86.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 20.0N 85.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 20.0N 85.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 19.5N 85.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 84.0W OR APPROX 317NM SSE OF COZUMEL,
MEXICO. 12FT SEAS: 040NM NE, 000NM SE 000NM SW, 000NM NW.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN.
111800Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU
111800). NEXT WARNINGS AT 120301Z, 120901Z, 121501Z AND
122101Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-12 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
昨天已爆发了,NHC一直没派飞机,所以升格晚了,第1报就是50KT,年鉴需把升格时间提前。
发表于 2010-10-12 10:51 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Storm PAULA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 120246
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
MASS.  SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
ESTIMATED CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT PAULA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF
PAULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PAULA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF
THE GUIDANCE.  BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10.  PAULA
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A POSITION NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE PAULA TO SLOW DOWN AS THE STEERING
CURRENTS COLLAPSE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK
REMAINS QUITE LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/0300Z 16.8N  84.6W    60 KT
12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N  85.5W    70 KT
24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.4N  86.3W    80 KT
36HR VT     13/1200Z 20.4N  86.7W    85 KT
48HR VT     14/0000Z 21.0N  86.4W    75 KT
72HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  85.5W    60 KT
96HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N  83.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
发表于 2010-10-12 14:10 | 显示全部楼层
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 120558 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL182010
A. 12/05:35:30Z
B. 17 deg 13 min N
  084 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1362 m
D. 58 kt
E. 038 deg 12 nm
F. 132 deg 58 kt
G. 037 deg 10 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 18 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1521 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0218A PAULA              OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 05:32:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT SW QUAD 05:37:10Z
EYEWALL IN EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
RADAR PRESENTATION GOOD

迟到的实测。
发表于 2010-10-13 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
Hurricane PAULA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 130241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

A 1926 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE ISSUANCE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE...WITH
AN EXTREMELY SMALL EYE.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITH
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 0047 UTC SSMIS
PASS ALSO SHOWS LESS SYMMETRY AND NO EYE FEATURE...HOWEVER THIS
INSTRUMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE TINY EYE.  THE LATEST
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0...
RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 85 KT.

PAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT TO STRENGTHEN.  THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS TURNED
NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/8.  THE TRACK REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN PAULA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN
EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
CYCLONE WILL GET.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM
ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE
GFS WHICH WEAKENS THE HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MEANDERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
THE UPDATED FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER 36 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
LESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 19.9N  86.0W    85 KT
12HR VT     13/1200Z 20.9N  86.1W    85 KT
24HR VT     14/0000Z 21.8N  85.6W    75 KT
36HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N  84.8W    65 KT
48HR VT     15/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W    55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
发表于 2010-10-13 12:27 | 显示全部楼层
横贯古巴岛?:y7 18L--PAULA.85kts-981mb-196N-860W
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-13 20:37 | 显示全部楼层
000
URNT12 KNHC 130812
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL182010
A. 13/07:40:10Z
B. 20 deg 31 min N
  086 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 2981 m
D. 69 kt
E. 204 deg 7 nm
F. 309 deg 62 kt
G. 212 deg 10 nm
H. EXTRAP 986 mb
I. 10 C / 3054 m
J. 21 C / 3015 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. Open ESE
M. E33/15/10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0418A PAULA              OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT NE QUAD 07:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
Max outbound SWS NE quad 79kts 07:41:20Z
发表于 2010-10-14 11:23 | 显示全部楼层
Hurricane PAULA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 140237
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS
EVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR
IMAGERY.  A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.  THE NEXT
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC.

PAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE.  PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED
BELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
ECMWF MODELS.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT
SCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0300Z 21.9N  85.4W    70 KT
12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.3N  84.9W    60 KT
24HR VT     15/0000Z 22.7N  83.6W    50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     15/1200Z 22.8N  82.1W    35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  80.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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