2011年3月南太和珊瑚海交界区TL（美军编号96S）

北落师门

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 1 for
Sanma, Malampa, South Penama and Shefa Provinces.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 1 issued by the Vanuatu
Meteorological Service, Port Vila at
6:10pm VUT Tuesday 8 March 2011 for
Sanma, Malampa, South Penama and Shefa Provinces.

At 5:00pm local time today, the Tropical Low was located
near 16.3 degrees South 164.9 degrees East, top right corner of
square letter D, number 6 (D, 6) of the Vanuatu tropical
cyclone tracking map.
This is about 240 KM southwest of Santo and 270 KM west
of Malekula. The   Tropical Low moved in an east direction
at 21 KM/HR (12 knots) in the past 6 hours. The potential for the
system to become a tropcial cyclone within the next 24 hours is
moderate to high.  

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 1000 hPa.  
Winds close to the centre estimated at 45 KM/HR (25 knots),
possibly increasing to 75KM/HR (40 KTS) in the next 24 hours.
The Tropical Low is forecast to be at
16.8 degrees South 167.5 degrees East
within the next 06 to 12 hours.

Gale winds of 75 KM/HR (40 KTS), gusting to 105KM/HR (55KTS)
will likely affect Sanma, Malampa, Shefa and Penama
provinces in the next 24 hours.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 8 Mar)           16.5S, 166.1E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 9 Mar)            16.8S, 167.5E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 9 Mar)           17.2S, 168.9E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 9 Mar)            18.0S, 170.2E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 10 Mar)           19.8S, 172.8E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 10 Mar)           22.3S, 175.2E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)

Damaging winds and rough to very rough seas with moderate to
heavy swells expected.  
Heavy rainfall and flooding is also expected. Coastal flooding is
expected in the next 24 hours. The National
Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises people that Blue Alert is now in
effect for Sanma, Malampa, South Penama and Shefa Provinces
For action on this alert call the National Disaster
Management Office (NDMO) on 26570.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next
warning on the Tropical Low at 9:00pm. People over
Sanma, Malampa, South Penama and Shefa Provinces
and Tafea Province should listen to all Radio Outlets
to get the latest information on this system.
This Warning and the Forecast Track Map is availabe on
the VMS's website www.meteo.gov.vu.

北落师门

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 08/0930 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.9S 164.9E
AT 080600UTC. POSITION POOR.
TD12F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS AND DEVELOPING.
SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES TO THE NORTH OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IN A LOW TO
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND ARE GENERALLY MOVING IT
TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

北落师门

TXPS41 PHFO 081145
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1145 UTC TUE MAR 08 2011

A. Tropical disturbance 12F.

B. 08/1032Z.

C. 16.9°S.

D. 167.8°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T2.5/2.5/d1.0/20 hrs.

G. Vis/eir.

H. Remarks: Curved band with wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral yields DT of 2.5. PT agrees. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions 08/0917Z 16.9°S 167.1°E trmm.

$$
HOUSTON


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