2011年1月南印度洋10S.BIANCA

methk

老J報文：
WTXS21 PGTW 241230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S 126.5E TO 18.1S 120.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AND RADAR DATA AT 241200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 126.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
126.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA DEPICT A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. AT 24/06Z, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TRUSCOTT SHOWED A
DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) OF ALMOST 4 MB IN THE LAST 24
HOURS AND A MINIMUM SLP OF 999 MB WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. MORE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL INCREASING PRESSURE NEAR TRUSCOTT (1002
MB) AND DECREASING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR DOONGAN (999 MB),
SUGGESTING THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND OBSERVED PRESSURE
FALLS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251230Z.//

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1914 UTC 24/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 125.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0600: 16.2S 123.8E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  995
+24: 25/1800: 17.2S 122.0E:     090 [165]:  035  [065]:  993
+36: 26/0600: 18.1S 119.8E:     120 [220]:  050  [095]:  983
+48: 26/1800: 18.8S 117.4E:     155 [285]:  060  [110]:  975
+60: 27/0600: 19.7S 114.9E:     200 [375]:  070  [130]:  967
+72: 27/1800: 20.9S 112.2E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  967
REMARKS:
Position based on Wyndham radar and IR. The low remains just inland of the NW
Kimberley coast, the low is showing improved organisation with cloudlines
spiralling towards the centre.
Maximum winds of 25 knots are over water, winds are likely to be lower overland.
The low continues to track to the southwest and will be close to the coast in
about six hours time. Forecast of cyclone intensity as early as Tuesday evening
should it move more over water than land, otherwise development will be delayed
until Wednesday.

Vertical shear has continued to eased to now be about 10-15 knots over the
system. With significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is
expected to develop at least the climatological rate as soon as it reaches open
water on Wednesday and Thursday possibly reaching severe cyclone intensity.
Weakening is then likely from Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and
experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the
system being steered towards the south.  


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
仍在陆上。

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0126 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 124.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [236 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1200: 17.1S 122.4E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  996
+24: 26/0000: 18.2S 120.2E:     090 [165]:  045  [085]:  987
+36: 26/1200: 19.1S 118.0E:     120 [225]:  050  [095]:  982
+48: 27/0000: 19.7S 115.7E:     155 [285]:  060  [110]:  975
+60: 27/1200: 20.7S 113.0E:     200 [375]:  070  [130]:  967
+72: 28/0000: 21.9S 110.4E:     250 [465]:  060  [110]:  974
REMARKS:
Position based on Wyndham and Broome radar, and IR. The system is between the
two radars and coverage is poor, hence the confidence in the position is
relatively low.  

The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some
curvature evident in the developing bands to the southwest. Maximum winds of 25
knots are over water, winds are likely to be lower overland. Forecast of cyclone
intensity as early as Tuesday evening should it move more over water than land,
otherwise development will likely be delayed until Wednesday.

Vertical shear has continued to ease and is now about 10-15 knots over the LLCC.
With significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is
expected to develop at least the climatological rate as soon as it reaches open
water, and on Wednesday and Thursday possibly reaching severe cyclone intensity.
Weakening is then likely from Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and
experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the
system being steered towards the south.  


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
雷达观测，结构不好。

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 123.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [239 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1800: 17.9S 121.0E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  991
+24: 26/0600: 19.0S 118.6E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  983
+36: 26/1800: 19.7S 116.3E:     120 [225]:  060  [110]:  975
+48: 27/0600: 20.6S 113.7E:     155 [285]:  070  [130]:  967
+60: 27/1800: 21.6S 111.1E:     200 [375]:  075  [140]:  962
+72: 28/0600: 23.1S 108.7E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  966
REMARKS:
Pressures at Koolan Island have started to rise. Lowest pressures are now in the
vicinity of Cape Leveque and wind directions there consistent with the location
derived from radar and VIS. Surface winds in the area are slowly starting to
increase.      

The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some
curvature evident in the developing bands. Dvorak banding of around 0.4 can be
obtained on recent VIS imagery. Maximum winds analysed apply only to open
waters, winds will be lower overland. Given the structure evident in the system
cyclone intensity is cautiously forecast soon after the LLCC reaches open water,
though it may take until early Wednesday.

Vertical shear is low to moderate [around 10-15 knots over the LLCC]. With
significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to
develop at the climatological rate or slightly faster once it reaches open
water. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone
[hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system
moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
正在出海，实测显示正加强。

开尔文

入海后将快速发展，EC预测上望850hpa层面的110kt（地面估算大概90kt吧）。

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 121.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 45 nm [85 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0000: 18.1S 119.4E:     060 [110]:  045  [085]:  985
+24: 26/1200: 19.0S 117.1E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  981
+36: 27/0000: 19.7S 114.9E:     120 [225]:  060  [110]:  973
+48: 27/1200: 20.6S 112.4E:     155 [285]:  070  [130]:  965
+60: 28/0000: 22.2S 110.0E:     200 [375]:  075  [140]:  960
+72: 28/1200: 24.5S 108.1E:     250 [465]:  065  [120]:  967
REMARKS:
Pressures at Broome have started to rise. Location derived from Broome radar and
surface observations.      

The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some
curvature evident in the developing bands. Dvorak banding of around 0.4 can be
obtained on recent VIS/IR imagery. Given the structure evident in the system
cyclone intensity is forecast at 251800 UTC.

Vertical shear is low to moderate [around 10-15 knots over the LLCC]. With
significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to
develop at near the climatological rate. By Thursday it is likely to reach
severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday
as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
BOM定于18UTC升TC并命名。

li0627

已获得命名BIANCA
     
10S.BIANCA-45kt

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.8S
Longitude: 119.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [234 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1200: 19.6S 117.9E:     050 [095]:  055  [100]:  978
+24: 27/0000: 20.6S 115.6E:     080 [150]:  070  [130]:  967
+36: 27/1200: 21.9S 112.9E:     110 [210]:  080  [150]:  958
+48: 28/0000: 23.7S 110.5E:     145 [270]:  075  [140]:  961
+60: 28/1200: 26.0S 108.7E:     190 [355]:  060  [110]:  972
+72: 29/0000: 28.5S 108.2E:     240 [445]:  055  [100]:  975
REMARKS:
0.8-1.0 banding on recent IR imagery gives 3.5 DT. MET is 3.0, PAT 3.5. FT is
set to 3.5 within constraints and hence CI is 3.5.  ADT indicates CI around 3.1
but may be having some issues with intensifying this sytem rapidly enough. Raw
DTs are around 3.8.  AMSU intensity estimate at 17Z indicated 1-min mean of 51
knots but may have a slight high bias.

Port Hedland radar shows early signs of a tighter inner eye wall [radius around
20-25nm] replacing the large banding eye evident in IR. Shear is low [4.4m/s at
18Z] and expected to increase only marginally over the next 48 hours.  Ocean
heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence
further intensification is forecast. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely
to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from
late Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing
shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.  


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
雷达显示出现眼墙。

北落师门

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1912 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 120.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0600: 18.9S 119.0E: 040 [075]: 050 [095]: 983
+24: 26/1800: 19.7S 116.7E: 070 [130]: 055 [100]: 978
+36: 27/0600: 20.6S 114.3E: 100 [185]: 065 [120]: 971
+48: 27/1800: 21.9S 111.7E: 135 [250]: 075 [140]: 962
+60: 28/0600: 23.9S 109.6E: 165 [305]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 28/1800: 26.1S 108.4E: 195 [360]: 060 [110]: 972
REMARKS:
Broome radar shows improving definition of a small circulation, now over open
water and intensifying. Despite competing peripheral convection and lack of
persisting convection over the centre in the last 12 hours, recent imagery shows
deep convection about the centre.

Dvorak curved band analysis ranges from 0.4-0.7 wrap, with the higher range
chosen using a tight curvature. This suggests a DT=3.0 and given the system was
land affected 24 hours ago, FT/CI is 3.0 and hence cyclone intensity is reached.


Further intensification is forecast given the ongoing low vertical wind shear
[currently 10-15 knots] and high ocean heat content [SST >30C]. On Thursday it
is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then
likely from late Friday or Saturday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and
then later experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

BOM的命名报。

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0708 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.4S
Longitude: 118.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [27 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1800: 20.3S 115.6E:     045 [085]:  070  [130]:  968
+24: 27/0600: 21.2S 113.1E:     075 [140]:  080  [150]:  958
+36: 27/1800: 22.5S 110.5E:     110 [200]:  085  [155]:  953
+48: 28/0600: 24.6S 108.3E:     140 [260]:  075  [140]:  961
+60: 28/1800: 26.9S 107.0E:     190 [345]:  055  [100]:  976
+72: 29/0600: 29.4S 106.9E:     235 [435]:  040  [075]:  985
REMARKS:
1.1 banding on recent VIS imagery gives 4.0 DT. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend,
PAT 4.0. FT is set to 4.0 within constraints and hence CI is 4.0. SATCON at 23Z
indicated 60 knots 1-min wind, with ADT at 48 knots and CIMSS AMSU at 64 knots.
1-min winds at Bedout Island have reached a maximum of 54 knots [0405Z] as the
system centre passed close by. Bedout is on the southern side and appears to
have gone through the eyewall so will have likely experienced close to the
maximum winds at that time. Final intensity estimate is set at 55 knots 10-min
wind with relatively high confidence given the lower bounds provided by the
offshore obs and the subjective assessment of the radar and microwave imagery in
agreement with Dvorak estimates.   

Radar shows inner eye wall radius of around 20-25nm with recent evidence that an
intense Cb has generated an asymmetry in the NW of the eyewall. Shear has
increased slightly [8.1m/s at 06Z] but is expected to increase only marginally
over the next 48 hours.  Ocean heat content is high along the forecast track
over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is forecast. By late
Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane]
intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over
cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.  


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.