2010年11月南印度洋03S

北落师门

ZCZC 121
WTIO20 FMEE 010023
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/12/2010 AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/12/2010 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (02 20102011) 997 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 85.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM
RADIUS  IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, LOCALLY
REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WIND AND ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/12/01 AT 12 UTC:
14.9S / 86.2E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2010/12/02 AT 00 UTC:
15.6S / 87.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED FOR THE LAST HOURS, SLIGHTLY ACCELERATING
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMAINS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM MIGHT STILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NNNN

li0627

门版，我非常诚恳地给你一个建议：
   
除了报文之外，能不能多贴一些图形产品？比如卫星云图，比如雷达回波，比如路径预报图？？
   
没有多少人肯花很多力气去读那个远在南半球、与自己压根没一点关系的TC的干巴巴的纯文字报文的，好歹给个图让大家有点直观的感受，行不？

北落师门

ZCZC 543
WTIO30 FMEE 010655
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/2/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2  (02 20102011)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/01 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 85.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 80 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 220   SE: 220   SO: 220   NO: 140
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 660 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/01 18 UTC: 15.6S/85.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/12/02 06 UTC: 16.5S/86.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/02 18 UTC: 17.1S/88.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/12/03 06 UTC: 18.2S/89.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/12/03 18 UTC: 19.4S/91.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/12/04 06 UTC: 19.8S/92.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5
DUE TO ITS SOUTHWARDS MOTION, SYSTEM IS PENETRATING WITHIN A WEAK
SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS GOOD, THANKS TO THE EQUATORWARD WESTERLIES
AND
THE GOOD TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH.
INFRARED PATTERN HAS THEREFORE IMPROVED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AND SYSTEM SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING AROUND 4 TO
6
TENS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE
STEERING
FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS IN ITS NORTH.
IN THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD REACH THE MODERATE STORM STAGE.
BEYOND, IT IS EXPECTED WEAKENING , UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IN ITS SOUTH AND MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT
ON COOLER AND COOLER SST.=
NNNN

北落师门

BULLETIN DU 01 DECEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02_20102011

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 01 DECEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES:  14.8 SUD / 85.4 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES:    3200 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT:                         SUD-SUD-EST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.5S/86.9E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.2S/89.9E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.8S/92.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER
AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE
LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN CE MERCREDI 01 DECEMBRE A 16H30 LOCALES

北落师门

Meteo France调强了预期，云图显示，最近数小时系统出现明显加强。低层扫瞄有低层风眼组建的现象。德法分析还是较滞后。

北落师门

北落师门

BULLETIN DU 01 DECEMBRE A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ABELE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 988 HPA.
POSITION LE 01 DECEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES:  15.3 SUD / 85.9 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES:    3235 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT:                         SUD-SUD-EST A 11 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.9S/88.1E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.8S/91.4E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 21.4S/94.3E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER
AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE
LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN CE MERCREDI 01 DECEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES

北落师门

毛里求斯于09UTC对02R20102011命名了。名字来源于莱索托。

北落师门

美军太差了，12UTC竟认为系统出现减弱，分析FT2.0。

北落师门

SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/12/2010 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/12/2010 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ABELE) 988 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 85.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER LOCALLY EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/12/02 AT 00 UTC:
16.1S / 87.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2010/12/02 AT 12 UTC:
16.9S / 88.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
IT SHOULD KEEP ON SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
NNNN