2011年2月下旬北澳TL

北落师门

BOM观测显示，系统没有登陆，直接将进入东南印。

北落师门

At 11:00am WST a developing tropical low [18U], 1001 hPa, was located near 13.7S
125.5E, about 140km west northwest of Kalumburu, moving west
southwest. It is likely that the low will move towards the southwest during the
next three days and deepen as it moves into a more favourable environment. On
Saturday the low is expected to be in the Western Region. The low may form into
a tropical cyclone on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Advices [IDW24100] will be issued
for this low by Thursday evening. Please refer to the latest Advice for further
details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday :Moderate   
Sunday   :High
Monday   :High

北落师门

BOM06UTC将发TC报，预计明后天发展为TC。BOM周四和周五的日期写错了。

北落师门

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:53 pm WST on Friday 25 February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Kalumburu to Wallal.

At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
75 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and
445 kilometres northeast of Derby and
moving slowly southwest parallel to the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it moves southwest
close to the west Kimberley coast. Gales are not expected in coastal areas
within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop on Sunday between
Kalumburu and Wallal.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Kalumburu and Wallal, including Derby and Broome, should
listen for the next advice.

Details of tropical low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.0 degrees South 126.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slowly towards the southwest
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 25 February.

北落师门

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 8:49 pm WST on Friday 25 February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Wallal.

At 8:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
75 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and
445 kilometres northeast of Derby and
moving slowly southwest, parallel to the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it moves towards the
southwest, close to the west Kimberley coast. GALES are not expected in coastal
areas within the next 24 hours, however GALES could develop on Sunday between
Kalumburu and Wallal.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Kalumburu and Wallal, including Derby and Broome, should
listen for the next advice.

Details of tropical low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.0 degrees South 126.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slowly towards the southwest
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 26 February.

北落师门

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 2:51 am WST on Saturday 26 February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Wallal.

At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
75 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and
445 kilometres northeast of Derby and
moving slowly southwest, parallel to the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it moves towards the
southwest, close to the west Kimberley coast. GALES are not expected in coastal
areas within the next 24 hours, however GALES could develop on Sunday between
Kalumburu and Wallal.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Kalumburu and Wallal, including Derby and Broome, should
listen for the next advice.

Details of tropical low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.0 degrees South 126.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slowly towards the southwest
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 26 February.

北落师门

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 9:03 am WST on Saturday 26 February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Wallal.

At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
90 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and
450 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it moves towards the
southwest, close to the west Kimberley coast. GALES are not expected in coastal
areas within the next 24 hours, however GALES could develop on Sunday between
Kalumburu and Wallal.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Kalumburu and Wallal, including Derby and Broome, should
listen for the next advice.

Details of tropical low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.9 degrees South 125.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 130 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Saturday 26 February.

北落师门

IDW20400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Broome
Issued at 11:50 am WST on Saturday 26 February 2011

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 11:00 am WST Tropical Low was relocated within 75 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal five degrees South (14.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty three decimal four degrees East (123.4E)
about 90 nautical miles northwest of Kuri Bay
and 170 nautical miles north of Derby
Recent movement : west at 10 knots
Maximum winds   : 20 knots
Central pressure: 998 hectopascals

Forecast to be within 100 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal six degrees South (14.6S)
longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal seven degrees East (122.7E)
about 120 nautical miles west northwest of Kuri Bay
with maximum winds of 30 knots
at 11:00 pm WST Saturday

Forecast to be within 130 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal zero degrees South (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal zero degrees East (122.0E)
about 150 nautical miles west northwest of Kuri Bay
with maximum winds of 30 knots
at 11:00 am WST Sunday

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Broome
Northeasterly to southeasterly winds increasing to 20/30 knots early Sunday
morning with scattered squalls to 45 knots.
Seas rising to 2.0 metres and swell to 1.0 metre.

The next warning will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Saturday 26 February.

BOM重新定位了。

北落师门

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 11:43 am WST on Saturday 26 February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Wallal.

At 11:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
160 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
315 kilometres north of Derby and
moving west at 19 kilometres per hour.

The system has been relocated based on IR/Visible imagery, RADAR, surface
observations, and microwave imagery.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it moves towards the
southwest, close to the west Kimberley coast. GALES are not expected in coastal
areas within the next 24 hours, however GALES could develop on Sunday between
Kalumburu and Wallal.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Kalumburu and Wallal, including Derby and Broome, should
listen for the next advice.

Details of tropical low at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.5 degrees South 123.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 140 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Saturday 26 February.

北落师门

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Saturday the 26th of February 2011
Valid until midnight WST Tuesday   


Potential Cyclones in the Western region:
At 11:00am WST Saturday a developing tropical low [18U], 998 hPa, was located
near 14.5S 123.4E, about 160km west northwest of Kuri Bay, moving west. It is
likely that the low will move towards the southwest during the next three days
and deepen as it moves into a more favourable environment. The low may form into
a tropical cyclone on Sunday. Please refer to the latest Advice for further
details [IDW24100].

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Sunday      :High
Monday      :High
Tuesday     :High