2010年12月孟加拉湾LPA

北落师门

NOAA卫星显示，孟加拉湾南部有LPA生成，部分数值认为其会发展为TC。

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请问如有发展能否给我国西南地区带来水汽？水汽通道会撞上7-8号的南下冷空气从而带来一波像样的降水吗？

北落师门

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 03-12-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)




SALIENT FEATURES:

VORTEX OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT 8.0N/61.0E (.) INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 05.0N TO 13.0N LONG 57.0E TO 64.5E (.)




BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH BAY (.) BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EASTCENTRAL SOUTH BAY EXTREAME SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH TENASSERIM COAST (.)




ARABIAN SEA: -

BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTH ARABIAN SEA EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 12.0N TO 15.0N EAST OF LONG 71.0E (.)




THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 15.0°N OVER THE REGION.

北落师门

数值预测在副高引导下西北移动，向印度东部靠近，不过印度东部处于副高西脊，系统的水汽汇入南支，系统的存在给东亚带来了较好的水汽支持。目前孟湾环境较好，对系统发展较有利。

北落师门

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 04-12-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)




SALIENT FEATURES:

VORTEX OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA HAS WEAKENED AND NOW LAY CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF 7.0N/62.0E (.) ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN LAT 3.5N TO 7.5N LONG 56.0E TO 62.0E (.)




BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY BETWEEN LAT 9.0N TO 16.0N WEST OF LONG 88.0E (.) SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY EAST OF LONG 88.0E ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) SCATTERD LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER EAST PART OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.)




ARABIAN SEA: -

BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTH ARABIAN SEA SOUTH OF LAT 8.0N LONG 62.0E TO 71.5E (.) SCATTERD LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST ARABIAN SEA SOUTH OF LAT 14.5N EAST OF LONG 72.0E (.)




THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 14.0°N OVER THE REGION.

北落师门

EC00UTC预测会发展为TC，登陆印度东南部，强度可达到命名强度。目前孟湾西南部的气旋性环流有组建的迹象。

北落师门

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 05-12-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)




SALIENT FEATURES:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOUHOOD.




BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -

BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY SOUTH OF LAT 18.0N (.) SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST BAY AND ANDAMAN SEA (.)




ARABIAN SEA: -

BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.




THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 15.0°N OVER THE REGION.

北落师门

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 06-12-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)




SALIENT FEATURES:

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS.




BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND WESTCENTRAL BAY WEST OF LONG 89.0E (.) BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST BAY OF BENGAL EXCEPT EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA AND TENASSERIM COT (.)




ARABIAN SEA: -

BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA SOUTH OF LATITUDE 8.0N EAST OF LONG 70.0E (.) SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.0N TO 18.0N EAST OF LONGITUDE 62.0E (.)




THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 16.0°N OVER THE REGION.

北落师门

Sub: Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal




Latest satellite imagery and synoptic observations indicate that a depression has formed over westcentral Bay of Bengal and it lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 7th December 2010 near lat. 14.00N and long. 82.00E about 230 km southeast of Kavali, 270 km south-southeast of Machlipatnam and 450 km south-southwest of Vishakhapatnam. It. will move northwestwards and cross south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Ongole near Kavali by today night.




Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and isolated heavy falls over Rayalseema, north coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall would also occur during next 24 hours over south coastal Orissa from 8th onwards.




Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off north Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off, these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.




Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.




Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 7th December, 2010.

北落师门

IMD升D，编号BOB06/2010/分析FT1.5。