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[南半球] 2011年5月西南印LPA

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发表于 2011-5-7 16:47 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
AWIO20 FMEE 061133
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/05/06 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
A low pressure area formed this morning off the eastern coast of
Madagascar. It is located at 10Z near 22.1S - 49.3E at about 70 NM
of the malgasian coast and about 340 NM to the Westsouthwest of La
Reunion. The system shows a small low level vortex (diameter:
95-100 NM) free fom deep convection activity. ASCAT pass of 06:20Z
show winds in the 15-20 kt range reaching locally 25-30 kt in the
southern sector due to the gradient effect. Estimated MSLP is 1014
hPa according to nearby stations. Current motion is
eastnortheastwards at about 6 kt.
During the next 3 days, the system should gradually move
southeastwards. It could gain some strengh but in a context that
appears to be at present time, baroclinic (extratrop cyclogenesis).
However, given that the system should pass over relatively warm
waters, one should not exclude the possibility that the system
could develop temporarely some hybrid characteristics (subtropical)
For the next 72 hours, development of a subtropical depression is
weak.
DerImageSatellite.jpg
 楼主| 发表于 2011-5-7 21:02 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 071047
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/05/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
A low pressure area monitoried yesterday, has filled up at the end
of the night west of Reunion island.
A new low can be detected on satellite imagery about 300NM south of
la Reunion near
26.3S/ 56.5E.
The elonged circulation is partially exposed with non well
organised convection in the southeastern cercle. ASCAT pass of 06Z
show winds in the 20-25 kt
reaching 30 kt in the southwestern
sector due to the gradient effect. Estimated MSLP is 1007 hPa
according to nearby bouys. Current motion is southeastwards at
about 12 kt.
This low is undergoing a trong westerly vertical wind shear, but
should remain temporaly during the next 24 hours under the axis of
the upper level trough, and then evoluate whithin more favorable
conditions for convection
developping near the center.
During the next 3 days, the system should gradually move
southeastwards. It could gain some strengh but in a context that
appears to be at present time, baroclinic (extratrop cyclogenesis).
However, given that the system should pass over relatively warm
waters, one should not exclude the possibility that the system
could develop temporarely some hybrid characteristics (subtropical)
For the next 72 hours, development of a subtropical depression is
weak.
旧地面低压中心填塞,新中心生成。
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