2011年5月西太平洋热带扰动94W

dnt02

2011年5月西太平洋热带扰动94W

世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明

报告人：dnt02
所属团队：21cma
扰动编号：94W
编号时间：05 MAY 2011 1732Z
初始强度：15kts.1010mb
扰动定位：4.3N.144.3E（查看位置：TC Google Map）
存在区域：西太平洋
1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构一般，多频微波结构一般；云图螺旋性差
2、系统环境分析：辐合状态良好；辐散状态一般；系统所处垂直风切微弱；系统所处海表温度 28C
3、系统现状其他分析： 無
数值预报：各大預報均認為將會發展
个人评估：無
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心（JTWC），采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见：追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有，未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。

开尔文

发现EC大神经……你没有看错，04W菲律宾85kt
      
PS.刚才回错在03W帖里了

cv006ance

这个不是850hPa风速吗，换算到地面还要打八折。不过菲中群岛地势不高，94W横穿时有利于加强对流的抬升

北落师门

我到觉得这个系统不一定是EC和其他数值运算的系统。和EC运算的时间位置不对。BOM定到南半球去了。

北落师门

系统摆脱南半球ITCZ的影响，出现加强的迹象。逐渐远离3N以南的科力很弱的区域。随着系统进入环境良好的区域，发展为TC的概率明显增加了。

北落师门

NWS Guam注意到了系统的发展。
000
WHGM70 PGUM 082347
MWWGUM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
947 AM CHST MON MAY 9 2011

.A TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS CAUSED WINDS AND SEAS TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING.

PMZ151>154-090800-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SC.Y.0005.110509T0000Z-110509T0800Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
947 AM CHST MON MAY 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

* EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS
  HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET AND REMAIN HAZARDOUS UNTIL
  THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. IF
NAVIGATION IS UNAVOIDABLE...EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY WHEN
ENTERING OR LEAVING HARBORS AND INLETS...AND NEAR REEF LINES.

&&

北落师门

000
WWGM80 PGUM 082303
AWWGUM
GUZ001-090800-

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
900 AM CHST MON MAY 9 2011

A HIGH WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 0900 CHST UNTIL 1800
CHST.

WINDS WITHIN 5 NM OF THE AIRPORT WILL BE FROM EAST-NORTHEAST OR FROM
ABOUT 070 DEGREES AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT.

BE ALERT AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS REQUIRED.

$$

MCELROY