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[南半球] 2011年4月中旬西南印亚热带气旋(未命名)

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发表于 2011-4-12 11:18 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
AWIO20 FMEE 111156
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/04/11 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convective activity over the basin is mainly associated with a
baroclinic low pressure area that formed 48 hours ago off the
southeastern coast of Madagascar.
Surface obs, satellite imagery and ASCAT data of 0640Z suggest that
a low is deepening at about 40 NM to the Southsoutheast of
Fort-Dauphin (Madagascar). It is located at 10Z near 25.8S and
47.3E. Thunderstorm activity is maintaining close to the center
mainly in the southern and western sectors. MSLP is estimated at
1007 hPa with pressure at nearby stations showing strong fall (-6.7
hPa in 24hrs at Fort-Dauphin and -5.7 hPa in 24 hrs at Farafangana
at 09Z). As suggested by ASCAT data and available surface obs, wind
structure is very asymetric currently with 10/20 kt winds in the
northern semi-circle and near gales force to locally gales force
winds in the southern semi-circle mainly due to gradient effect.
The system is currently within a baroclinic environment (cold upper
level low) with a lower than usual dynamical tropopause. However
given that deep convection is maintaining close to the center, that
the system evolves over warm waters (26-27C SST) and that the shear
is expected to be rather low under the upper level low, it appears
likely that this system could gain some tropical characteristics
(tropical transition) within the next few days ... if it does not
make landfall rapidly over the southeastern coast of Madagascar ...
Located to the Northeast of this low pressure area, a convergence
line associated with severe thunderstorm is axed along 20S/51E -
24S/54E between the Mascaregnes islands and Madagascar.
For the next 72 hours, the potential for the system located south
of Madagascar to gain some tropical characteristics is poor to
fair.
DerImageSatellite.jpg
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-12 21:01 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 121118
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/04/12 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convective activity over the basin is mainly associated with a
baroclinic low pressure area that formed more than 48 hours ago off
the southeastern coast of Madagascar.
Surface obs, satellite imagery and ASCAT data of 0618Z show
a low
deepening at about 150NM to the Southsoutheast of Fort-Dauphin
(Madagascar). It is located at 10Z near 24.8S and 49.5E.
Thunderstorm activity is maintaining far from the center between 50
and 250 nm radius from the center within the southern semi-cercle.
MSLP is estimated at 1004hPa (1004.4 hPa with the buoy NR 16962 at
09Z). As suggested by ASCAT data and available surface obs, wind
structure is very asymetric currently with 10/20 kt winds in the
northern semi-circle and near gales force to locally gales force
winds in the southern semi-circle mainly due to gradient effect.
The system is currently within a baroclinic environment (cold upper
level low) with a lower than usual dynamical tropopause. Deep
convection is hardly maintaining close to the center, due to strong
vertical wind shear over the area ahead of the trough. NWP
available forecast the progressive deepening of the low, southeast
of Madagascar, as the vertical wind shear temporaly weaken under
the trough, tracking slowly South-Westwards, then evacuate it
South-Easthwards beyond friday
Located to the Northeast of this low pressure area, a convergence
line associated with severe thunderstorm is axed along 20S/53E -
25S/55E between the Mascaregnes islands and Madagascar.
For the next 72 hours, the potential for the system located south
of Madagascar to gain some tropical characteristics is poor.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-13 20:23 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 131118
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/04/13 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
ITCZ is noexistent on the basin. Convective activity is associated
with a baroclinic low pressure area that persists last few days
southeast of of Madagascar.
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined and partially exposed low
level vortex, located at 1000Z near 27.6S/48.6E and moving
south-westward at 5 kt. A convective band is present in the
southern semi-circle of the system and wraps fairly closely from
the centre, but difficulty persists at this location.
Ascat swath
0557Z is not centered on the system, but it is likely that wind
structure is asymmetric
with a large strong winds half-ring
reaching 30/35 kt with gradient effect from 70 to 250 NM, and
weaker winds at about 25/30 kt in the northern semi-circle. Minimum
Sea Level Pressure is estimated at 1001 hPa.
The system still evolves in a baroclinic environment
(cold upper
level low and lower than usual dynamical tropopause) and good
divergence preserves convection in the southwestern edge in phasis
with a weak vertical windshear on the trough axis.
Available NWP models forecast that the system keeps a
south-southwestward movement for the next 36 hours and beyond
recurves south-eastward. Until friday evening, upper level
conditions are favourable and the low could a little deepen.
Despite colder SST (25/26C) toward the south,
it is possible that
the subtropical system temporarily evolves to a tropical structure
if convection increases near the centre and persists. On and after
48/60 hours, the system might begin its extratropicalization in the
westerly circulation of the mid-latitudes.
Located to the Northeast of this low pressure area, a convergence
line associated with severe thunderstorms is axed along 18S/52E -
22S/54E - 26S/56E between the Mascareines islands and Madagascar.
For the next 48 hours, the potential for the subtropical depression
located
south of Madagascar to gain some tropical characteristics is poor
to fair.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-13 21:20 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 131248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/9/20102011
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2011/04/13 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9S / 48.6E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /D / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 070   SE: 700   SO: 450   NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 550 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/04/14 00 UTC: 28.6S/48.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/04/14 12 UTC: 29.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/04/15 00 UTC: 31.2S/45.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/04/15 12 UTC: 32.7S/45.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
60H: 2011/04/16 00 UTC: 34.7S/47.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/04/16 12 UTC: 37.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  17/04/2011 12 UTC: 41.8S/57.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 18/04/2011 12 UTC: 43.8S/69.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
NO DVORAK ANALYSIS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
VORTEX. A CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WRAPS FAIRLY CLOSELY FROM THE CENTRE, BUT DIFFICULTY PERSISTS
AT THIS LOCATION. ASCAT SWATH 0557Z IS NOT CENTERED ON THE SYSTEM, BUT IT
IS VERY LI
KELY THAT WINDS STRUCTURE IS ASYMMETRIC  WITH A LARGE STRONG WINDS
HALF-RING REACHING 35/40 KT WITH GRADIENT EFFECT FROM 70 TO 250 NM FROM
THE CENTRE, AND WEAKER WINDS AT ABOUT 25/30 KT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE THAT JUSTIFY THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.
THE SYSTEM STILL EVOLVES IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT (COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND LOWER THAN USUAL DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE) AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PRESERVES CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE IN PHASIS WITH A
WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE TROUGH AXIS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND RECURVES SOUTH-EASTWARD. UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE LOW COULD
A LITTLE DEEPEN. DESPITE COLDER SST (25/26C) TOWARD THE SOUTH,  IT IS
POSSIBLE TH
AT THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TEMPORARILY EVOLVES TO A TROPICAL STRUCTURE IF
CONVECTION INCREASES NEAR THE CENTRE AND PERSISTS. ON AND AFTER 48/60
HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION IN THE WESTERLY
CIRCULATION OF THE MID-LATITUDES.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-14 10:37 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 131818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/9/20102011
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2011/04/13 AT 1800 UTC :
28.6S / 48.7E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /D / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 074   SE: 740   SO: 463   NO: 092
34 KT       NE:       SE: 300   SO: 300   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 430 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/04/14 06 UTC: 29.9S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/04/14 18 UTC: 30.8S/46.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/04/15 06 UTC: 32.4S/46.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2011/04/15 18 UTC: 33.9S/47.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/04/16 06 UTC: 36.1S/48.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/04/16 18 UTC: 38.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  17/04/2011 18 UTC: 42.4S/59.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 18/04/2011 18 UTC: 44.7S/71.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
NO DVORAK ANALYSIS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL
VORTEX. A CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE
SYSTEM AND WRAPS FAIRLY CLOSELY FROM THE CENTRE, BUT DIFFICULTY
PERSISTS
AT THIS LOCATION. ASCAT SWATH 0557Z IS NOT CENTERED ON THE SYSTEM,
BUT IT
IS VERY LI
KELY THAT WINDS STRUCTURE IS ASYMMETRIC  WITH A LARGE STRONG WINDS
HALF-RING REACHING 35/40 KT WITH GRADIENT EFFECT FROM 70 TO 250 NM
FROM
THE CENTRE, AND WEAKER WINDS AT ABOUT 25/30 KT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE THAT JUSTIFY THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.
THE SYSTEM STILL EVOLVES IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT (COLD UPPER
LEVEL
LOW AND LOWER THAN USUAL DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE) AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PRESERVES CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE IN PHASIS
WITH A
WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REAMINS TE
MPORALY, SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THIS STAGE OR SLIGHTLY DEEPEN.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM KEEPS A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND RECURVES SOUTH-EASTWARD.
UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE LOW
COULD
A LITTLE DEEPEN. DESPITE COLDER SST (25/26C) TOWARD THE SOUTH,  IT IS
POSSIBLE TH
AT THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TEMPORARILY EVOLVES TO A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
IF
CONVECTION INCREASES NEAR THE CENTRE AND PERSISTS. ON AND AFTER 48/60
HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION IN THE
WESTERLY
CIRCULATION OF THE MID-LATITUDES.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-14 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 140022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/9/20102011
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2011/04/14 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1S / 48.3E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /D / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 55 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 110   SE: 610   SO: 280   NO: 140
34 KT       NE:       SE: 280   SO: 190   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/04/14 12 UTC: 30.5S/46.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/04/15 00 UTC: 31.9S/46.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2011/04/15 12 UTC: 32.8S/46.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2011/04/16 00 UTC: 34.5S/47.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/04/16 12 UTC: 36.8S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/04/17 00 UTC: 38.8S/52.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  18/04/2011 00 UTC: 40.2S/59.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 19/04/2011 00 UTC: 40.5S/67.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
NO DVORAK ANALYSIS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL
VORTEX. A CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF
THE SYSTEM AND WRAPS ON QUITE HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. ASCAT SWATH
1822Z
IS NOT CENTERED ON THE SYSTEM, BUT IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT WINDS
STRUCTURE
IS ASYMMET
RIC  WITH A LARGE STRONG WINDS HALF-RING REACHING 35/40 KT WITH
GRADIENT
EFFECT, AND WINDS30 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM STILL EVOLVES IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT (COLD UPPER
LEVEL
LOW AND LOWER THAN USUAL DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE) AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PRESERVES CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE IN PHASIS
WITH A
WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REAMINS TE
MPORALY, SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THIS STAGE OR SLIGHTLY DEEPEN.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM KEEPS A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND RECURVES SOUTH-EASTWARD.
UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE LOW
COULD
A LITTLE DEEPEN. DESPITE COLDER SST (4/25C) TOWARD THE SOUTH,  IT IS
POSSIBLE THA
T THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TEMPORARILY EVOLVES TO A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
IF
CONVECTION INCREASES NEAR THE CENTRE AND PERSISTS. ON AND AFTER 36
HOURS,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION IN THE WESTERLY
CIRCULATION OF THE MID-LATITUDES.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-14 16:19 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 140647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 4/9/20102011
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2011/04/14 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.6S / 47.7E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /S / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 55 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 110   SE: 610   SO: 280   NO: 140
34 KT       NE:       SE: 280   SO: 180   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/04/14 18 UTC: 31.2S/46.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/04/15 06 UTC: 33.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/04/15 18 UTC: 34.6S/46.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/04/16 06 UTC: 36.2S/48.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/04/16 18 UTC: 38.1S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/04/17 06 UTC: 39.6S/54.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  18/04/2011 06 UTC: 40.2S/61.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 19/04/2011 06 UTC: 40.6S/69.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
VORTEX. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
AND IS FLUCTUATING ELSEWHERE.
MICRO WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION IN
THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN PHASE WITH THE AXIS OF A HIGH
TROPOSPHERE TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND
FAVORABLE
FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM KEEPS A SOUTHWESTWARD
TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND
RECURVES
SOUTH-EASTWARD. UP TO 24 TAU, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.
THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN AT THIS INTENSITY OR DEEPEN SLIGHTLY DURING
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. BEYOND 36 TAU, UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN
AND SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION IN THE WESTERLY
CIRCULATION OF THE MID-LATITUDES.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-14 18:05 | 显示全部楼层
TXXS21 KNES 140855


A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B.  14/0830Z

C.  30.3S

D.  48.0E

E.  THREE/MET-7

F.  ST 2.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SCATT

H.  REMARKS...INTENSITY BASED ON 40KT WIND IN 0539Z SCATTEROMETER PASS.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    14/0539Z 30.0S 47.9E SCATT


...LIDDICK

风场扫到40KT风速,强度给40KT1min平均。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-14 18:05 | 显示全部楼层
TXXS21 KNES 140855


A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B.  14/0830Z

C.  30.3S

D.  48.0E

E.  THREE/MET-7

F.  ST 2.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SCATT

H.  REMARKS...INTENSITY BASED ON 40KT WIND IN 0539Z SCATTEROMETER PASS.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    14/0539Z 30.0S 47.9E SCATT


...LIDDICK

风场扫到40KT风速,强度给40KT1min平均。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-14 21:19 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 141301
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/9/20102011
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2011/04/14 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.5S / 47.7E
(THIRTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /D / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 220   SE: 300   SO: 550   NO: 130
34 KT       NE: 130   SE: 150   SO: 200   NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/04/15 00 UTC: 32.1S/47.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/04/15 12 UTC: 33.7S/47.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2011/04/16 00 UTC: 35.6S/48.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2011/04/16 12 UTC: 38.7S/50.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/04/17 00 UTC: 40.6S/53.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/04/17 12 UTC: 41.8S/59.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  18/04/2011 12 UTC: 44.4S/72.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE IS NO
EVIDENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
EVEN
IF CONVECTION IS CLOSER FROM THE CENTRE ACCORDING TO THE LAST
ANIMATED
SATELLITE PICTURES. ACTUALLY CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND
VERTICAL
EXTENSION IS MO
DERATE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS WELL DEFINED.
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT DATA AT 05.38Z, GALE FORCE WIND 35KT EXISTS
AROUND
MOST OF THE CIRCULATION AT 50NM FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THE RING OF
STRONG
WINDS IS LARGER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT
EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS ON THE WESTREN
EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LOW ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SEAS (25OC) BUT UNDER THE
AXIS
OF A LARGE HIGH TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SO WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND CONVECTION SHOULD LAST. SO INTENSITY IS
NOT
EXPECTED TO CHAN
GE SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BEYOND 24TAU, UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN
AND SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERLY MID LATITUDES CIRCULATION.=

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