世纪气象云

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

12
返回列表 发新帖
楼主: 北落师门
收起左侧

[南半球] 2011年3月下旬东西南印交界区TL

[复制链接]
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-30 20:54 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 301220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/8/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8
2.A POSITION 2011/03/30 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2S / 87.8E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-NORTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE:       SE:       SO: 055   NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/31 00 UTC: 07.9S/88.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/03/31 12 UTC: 07.6S/88.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2011/04/01 00 UTC: 08.1S/89.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2011/04/01 12 UTC: 08.7S/89.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/04/02 00 UTC: 09.2S/88.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/04/02 12 UTC: 09.7S/88.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  03/04/2011 12 UTC: 10.3S/86.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 04/04/2011 12 UTC: 11.2S/83.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS TOTALLY EXPOSED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARDS SINCE 30/0600Z.
LAST AVAILABLE NWP (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS) ARE IN A RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
ON
FORECASTING A MORE OR LESS BROAD CLOCKWISE LOOP FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
BEYOND THE STEERING CURRENT SHOULD BE BACK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EAST-NORTH-EASTERN FLOW.
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THIS LOOP.
ECMWF NWP MODEL FORECASTS A GRADUALLY DEEPENING ON AND AFETR SUNDAY 3
APRIL AS SYSTEM EVOLVES IN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS
.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR ADVISORY.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 12:53 | 显示全部楼层
At midday WST a third low [27U] was near 08S 088E and was slow moving. This low
may develop over the next few days, and may re-enter the Western Region during
the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Friday    : Low
Saturday  :Moderate
Sunday    :Moderate
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 14:50 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 310607
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 6/8/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8
2.A POSITION 2011/03/31 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4S / 89.1E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /W  0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 703 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/31 18 UTC: 07.4S/89.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/04/01 06 UTC: 08.1S/90.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2011/04/01 18 UTC: 08.7S/90.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2011/04/02 06 UTC: 09.2S/90.7E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=1.5
SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS TOTALLY EXPOSED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARDS SINCE 30/0600Z.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS,
NEITHER LOW LEVELS, NOR UPPER LEVELS.
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION.=

Meteo France放弃了,将移入东南印。垂直风切太大了,3天内环境对发展不利。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 14:53 | 显示全部楼层
不过数值认为3天后环境对发展会开始有利。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 21:14 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 311103
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/31 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Warnings WTIO20 et WTIO30
n 006/08 issued at 06Z
about Tropical Disturbance n 8. last Warning unless regeneration.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
In relationship with a lack of efficient monsoon flow over the
basin, deep convective activity is weak and very scattered.
It is mainly located along a convergence axis between Malagasy
eastern coastline and 52E from 17S to 24S and also within Tropical
disturbance n 8.
Tropical disturbance n 8:
Position at 0900Z: 7.6S/89.3E
Current motion: East South-Eastwards 6kt over the past 6 hours.
T=1.5 Ci=1.5 (shear pattern)
Max winds: clockwise circulation at 20 kt
MSLP: 1005 hPa
Environmentales conditions remains less favorable to
intensification for the two next days,
and imrove a little beyond.
The center of the system is forecasted to track generally eastwards
and go across 90E in the next 12 hours.
Avalaible NPW make it come back on our basin betwween tau 48 and
tau72, and begin a west south-westwards track intensifying, on the
northern edge of the subtropical highs
For the next 72 hours,
potential for development of a tropical depression is poor related
to the ropical Disturbance nr08 ,
East of the basin, but become
moderate beyond.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-1 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
At midday WST a third low [27U] was near 08S 089E and was slow moving. This low
may develop over the next couple of days, and may re-enter the Western Region
during the weekend, before adopting a westerly track.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday  : Low
Sunday    : Low
Monday    : Low
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-1 21:03 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 011051
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/04/01 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
A weak monsoon flow exists West of 70E and feeds a very little
active ZCIT along 12S from African coastlines to 65E. Convective
activity is weak to moderate within the ZCIT and also in the
vicinity of Tropical disturbance nr8 in eastern boundary of our
basin.
Tropical disturbance nr8:
Position at 0900Z: 8.2S/90.2E
Current motion: East-South-Eastward 3 kt for the past 6 hours.
T=1.0 Ci=1.5
Max winds: clockwise circulation at 10/15 kt, 15/20 kt in the
southern semi-circle.
MSLP: 1005 hPa.
Scattered and fluctuating convection in the southern part of the
system.
Available NWP models are in good agreement for a very slow
south-southeastward track through the next 36/48 hours within the
Australian AoR and conditions remaining very unfavourable for
intensification. Beyond, most of models (excepted french model ARP)
forecast that the system will come back in our basin by taking a
west-southwestward track on the northern edge of low-mid level high
pressures existing in the South.
On this track, and despite
improving low level conditions,
the system should very slowly
intensify due to moderate but persistent easterly vertical
windshear.
Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next
48 hours on our basin.
Beyond, potential becomes poor to fair
in relation to the tropical Disturbance nr08 East of the basin.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-3 13:06 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 021150
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/04/02 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
ITCZ remains weak and mainly defined West of 70E and along 10S.
Main convective activity is associated withTropical Disturbance n 8
located just east of the eastern boundary of our AoR.
Tropical Disturbance nr8:
Estimated position at 1030Z: 10S/91.1E
Current motion: Slow southwards drift at 5 kt.
T=1.5 Ci=1.5
Convective activity has strenghened within the system compared to
24 hours ago with a slight gain in overall organisation. However,
the system is still suffering from rather strong easterly shear.
Max winds: ASCAT data of 02:58Z shows a clockwise circulation at
15/20 kt, reaching locally 25 kt in the southern sector.
MSLP: 1004 hPa.
Within a weak steering flow environment, the system is still
expected to move little tomorow. Monday, a rather strong
subtropical ridge should gradually build south of the system and
allow a general westwards track at a faster motion.
As easterly shear is expected to remain more or less at the same
level within the next three days, there is a low probability of
intensification (slow intensification only show now by GFS) ...
Moreover and according to latest NWP fields outputs, it appears
that equatorial low level inflow should gradually deteriorate all
along next week.
For the next 72 hours, the potential for development of a tropical
depression is poor associated to the Tropical Disturbance n 08 East
of the basin.
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|世纪气象云 | | | 关于我们

GMT+8, 2021-6-24 05:23 , Processed in 0.027005 second(s), 17 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表