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[南半球] 2011年4月北澳20S.

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-4 12:11 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0110 UTC 04/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 123.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [232 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1200: 16.6S 122.6E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  998
+24: 05/0000: 16.8S 121.1E:     080 [150]:  040  [075]:  996
+36: 05/1200: 17.1S 119.5E:     110 [205]:  050  [095]:  990
+48: 06/0000: 17.4S 118.0E:     140 [260]:  055  [100]:  986
+60: 06/1200: 18.1S 116.9E:     170 [315]:  060  [110]:  982
+72: 07/0000: 18.5S 116.0E:     200 [370]:  050  [095]:  988
REMARKS:
The centre has been difficult to locate, lying outside radar range. The current
fix uses a combination of satellite imagery and surface observations. Convective
structure is poor at present and the low level cloud lines evident in early VIS
imagery also indicates a weak LLCC. Environmental shear is low at present, with
CIMSS analysis of northerly shear of around 3m/s or less [at 00Z]. However model
guidance indicates the shear may be concentrated in the mid levels. Models also
indicate dry air in the mid levels may be inetrained into the circulation and
further weaken it. The morning sounding from Broome indicates increasingly drier
air in the mid levels despite the approach of the system.  
Even under favourable conditions the low would be expected to take some time to
reach TC intenisty once it reaches open water. Hence the forecast of TC
intensity at 18Z is considered to be at the fast end of the range of
possibilities.
Model guidance indicates the system should take a generally west southwest track
before interacting with an upper trough on Wednesday. However current mid level
steering patterns are weak and model guidance has generally been right of track.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-4 13:07 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0424 UTC 04/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0300 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 123.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1500: 16.2S 122.0E:     055 [100]:  020  [035]: 1005
+24: 05/0300: 16.5S 120.4E:     080 [150]:  025  [045]: 1004
+36: 05/1500: 16.7S 118.8E:     110 [205]:  030  [055]: 1001
+48: 06/0300: 17.2S 117.4E:     140 [260]:  030  [055]: 1001
+60: 06/1500: 17.8S 116.4E:     170 [315]:  040  [075]:  995
+72: 07/0300: 18.1S 115.5E:     195 [360]:  035  [065]:  998
REMARKS:
Radar and VIS imagery shows the circulation has weakened significantly in the
last 24 hours. The low level cloud lines have relatively poor definition and
there is a deck of stratocumulus on the western side of the circulation. There
is very little deep convection associated with the low level circulation centre
[LLCC] and it is not possible to rate the system at T1.0. Weakening has likely
been due to a combination of interaction with land and dry air. The Broome
skew-T profile and the CIMSS TPW loop support model diagnoses of dry air
wrapping around the western side of the system. There are no significant
pressure falls in the vicinity of the system.
Even under favourable conditions the low would be expected to take some time to
reach TC intensity once it reaches open water. There remains the possibility
that the system could briefly attain tropical cyclone intensity before shear
increases late Wednesday due to an upper trough. More likely is the development
of periods of gales on the southern side of the system as it tracks parallel to
the Pilbara coast. Current mid level steering patterns are weak and model
guidance has generally been right of track, but the weaker the system is the
more likely it is to track away from the coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-4 13:07 | 显示全部楼层
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:21pm WST on Monday the 4th of April 2011
Valid until midnight WST Thursday  


Existing Cyclones:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for a weak tropical low [25U], located off
the west Kimberley coast near 15.9S 123.1E at 11 am WST on Monday 4 April,
moving west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue
moving west southwest and could intensify into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday.
If it does reach cyclone intensity, it should weaken on Thursday. Please refer
to the latest Advice [IDW24100] for further details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday     : Low
Wednesday   :Mod
Thursday    :Mod

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-4 15:05 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0654 UTC 04/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 123.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [273 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1800: 15.9S 121.7E:     045 [085]:  025  [045]: 1002
+24: 05/0600: 16.1S 119.8E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1000
+36: 05/1800: 16.4S 118.1E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]: 1000
+48: 06/0600: 16.9S 116.3E:     130 [240]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60: 06/1800: 17.1S 115.0E:     160 [295]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72: 07/0600: 16.8S 113.7E:     190 [350]:  030  [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Radar and VIS imagery shows the circulation has weakened significantly in the
last 24 hours. The low level cloud lines have poor definition and there is a
deck of stratocumulus on the western side of the circulation. There is very
little deep convection associated with the low level circulation centre [LLCC]
and it is not possible to rate the system at T1.0. Weakening has likely been due
to a combination of interaction with land and dry air. The Broome skew-T profile
and the CIMSS TPW loop support model diagnoses of dry air wrapping around the
western side of the system. There are no significant pressure falls in the
vicinity of the system.

Even under favourable conditions the low would be expected to take some time to
reach TC intensity. It is now considered unlikely that the system could attain
tropical cyclone intensity before shear increases late Wednesday due to an upper
trough. More likely is the development of periods of gales on the southern side
of the system as it tracks parallel to the Pilbara coast.

Current mid level steering patterns are weak and model guidance has generally
been right of track, but the weaker the system is the more likely it is to track
away from the coast.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
BOM放弃了。
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