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[南半球] 2011年4月北澳20S.

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-2 11:44 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0251 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 127.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1200: 13.8S 126.0E:     060 [110]:  035  [065]:  997
+24: 03/0000: 14.3S 124.6E:     090 [165]:  040  [070]:  992
+36: 03/1200: 14.7S 123.4E:     095 [175]:  045  [085]:  988
+48: 04/0000: 15.2S 122.1E:     100 [185]:  050  [095]:  984
+60: 04/1200: 15.7S 121.0E:     110 [205]:  055  [100]:  982
+72: 05/0000: 16.4S 119.9E:     120 [220]:  060  [110]:  979
REMARKS:
Centre position has become well defined on radar by converging spiral rainbands
west of earlier fixes. Convective structure has improved significantly with the
development of a CDO over the LLCC. Outflow appears to be good in northern and
western sectors.
Dvorak analysis at 2030UTC was based on 1.5deg CDO yielding a DT=3.0. Reanalysis
of recent timesteps produces FT=2.5 from 1730UTC. At 2330UTC, DT was not
assigned due to large area of cold cloud over the LLCC, so FT=MET=2.5.
The low has turned towards the WSW, with a forecast track along the north
Kimberley coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. The
system is now a favourable environment for development with reducing vertical
wind shear, deep moisture and significant low-level broad-scale vorticity. TC
formation is likely later today near the north Kimberley coast.
The longer-term track forecast takes the developing cyclone towards the WSW,
slightly further away from the WA coast north of Broome on Monday. The forecast
track is based on a consensus of available NWP models.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-2 17:24 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0857 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 127.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [246 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1800: 14.3S 125.4E:     045 [085]:  040  [070]:  996
+24: 03/0600: 14.8S 124.0E:     060 [110]:  045  [080]:  992
+36: 03/1800: 15.3S 122.8E:     080 [150]:  050  [090]:  988
+48: 04/0600: 15.8S 121.5E:     100 [185]:  055  [100]:  986
+60: 04/1800: 16.4S 120.4E:     120 [220]:  060  [105]:  982
+72: 05/0600: 17.1S 119.2E:     140 [260]:  060  [115]:  978
REMARKS:
A well-defined low-level centre is evident on Wyndham radar, lying close to the
north Kimberley coast. Convective structure has improved significantly over the
past 24 hours, with
development of a CDO over the LLCC. Outflow appears to be good in northern and
southern sectors.

Dvorak analysis at 06 UTC was based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 wrap,
yielding DT=3.0. With a 24hr trend of D+ MET= 3.0, PAT=2.5. Due to high
confidence of DT, FT=DT=3.0.

Surrounding observations suggest gales are currently not present, hence the
system is maintained below tropical cyclone intensity.

The low continues to track to the WSW, steered by a mid-level ridge to the
south. The system is now in a favourable environment for development with low
vertical wind shear, deep moisture and significant low-level broad-scale
vorticity. TC formation is likely later Saturday night or Sunday morning near
the north Kimberley coast.

In the longer term, the system is expected to maintain a general WSW track as
the mid-level ridge moves over the south of the continent. The current consensus
of NWP forecast tracks have a very low spread, with high confidence in the track
forecast for the next 72hours. The broadscale environment is expected to remain
favourable for continued development as the system moves away from the coast,
with the potential for it to reach severe tropical cyclone strength early next
week. Thereafter, system strength will depend on whether a dry continental air
mass can penetrate into the core. Towards the end of next week it is possible
the system will adopt a southeasterly track as an upper trough approaches. Under
this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.

This product delayed by technical difficulties.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-2 22:09 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1358 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 126.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [245 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:0.0
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/0000: 14.6S 125.0E:     045 [085]:  045  [085]:  990
+24: 03/1200: 15.2S 123.4E:     070 [130]:  050  [095]:  988
+36: 04/0000: 15.4S 122.0E:     090 [165]:  060  [110]:  982
+48: 04/1200: 15.8S 120.6E:     110 [205]:  065  [120]:  979
+60: 05/0000: 15.9S 119.1E:     145 [270]:  075  [140]:  971
+72: 05/1200: 16.2S 117.9E:     180 [335]:  080  [150]:  966
REMARKS:
The low-level centre is currently being tracked using Wyndham radar in
conjunction with surface observations. Convective structure has improved
significantly over the past 24 hours, with development of a CDO over the LLCC
and good outflow channels evident in northern and southern sectors.

Dvorak analysis at 12 UTC was based on 1 degree width CDO, yielding DT=2.5. With
a 24hr trend of D+ MET= 3.0. With low confidence in DT, the pattern adjust MET
[PAT=2.5] is chosen as the FT.

Surrounding observations have, until recently, suggested a maximum system
intensity of 30 knots and hence hence the system has been maintained below
tropical cyclone intensity. However, recent observations from Troughton Island
have suggested a band of gales may be developing to the north of the LLCC.

The low has recently been tracking to the WSW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south. CIMMS analyses indicate the system is currently under a moderate
easterly shear. With deep moisture in the area, further intensification is
favoured with the system likely to reach TC intensity in 6 to 12 hours.

In the longer term, the system is expected to maintain a general WSW track as
the mid-level ridge moves over the south of the continent. The current consensus
of NWP forecast tracks have a very low spread, with high confidence in the track
forecast for the next 72hours. The broadscale environment is expected to remain
favourable for continued development as the system moves away from the coast,
with the potential for it to reach severe tropical cyclone strength early next
week. Thereafter, system strength will depend on whether a dry continental air
mass can penetrate into the core. Towards the end of next week it is possible
the system will adopt a southeasterly track as an upper trough approaches. Under
this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-2 22:09 | 显示全部楼层
在陆上,BOM是不会升TC的。
发表于 2011-4-3 01:01 | 显示全部楼层
#2
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-3 11:10 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1913 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 125.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/0600: 14.8S 124.7E:     050 [095]:  045  [085]:  989
+24: 03/1800: 15.4S 123.1E:     080 [150]:  050  [095]:  986
+36: 04/0600: 15.7S 121.4E:     110 [210]:  060  [110]:  979
+48: 04/1800: 16.1S 119.8E:     145 [270]:  070  [130]:  971
+60: 05/0600: 16.5S 118.2E:     190 [355]:  075  [140]:  967
+72: 05/1800: 17.0S 117.1E:     240 [445]:  080  [150]:  962
REMARKS:
The centre was located using satellite imagery and surface observations.
Convective structure has weakened over the past 6 hours due to interaction with
land.
Dvorak analysis at 18 UTC: Scene type was difficult to determine, but using a
shear pattern with LLCC <0.5 degree from strong temperature gradient, DT = 2.5.
Difficult to assign MET as system was over water 24 hours ago. FT is therefore
set to 2.5 with maximum winds estimated at 30 knots, consistent with earlier
surface observations.
The low has recently been tracking to the WSW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south. CIMMS analysis at 18UTC indicates the system is currently under 3.8
m/s of northerly shear. Intensity is likely to be constrained in the short term
due to the proximity to land but in the longer term the system is expected to
move over open water with SSTs about 30C and intensify at the standard rate.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks have a very low spread, with high
confidence in the track forecast for the next 72 hours. The broadscale
environment is expected to remain favourable for continued development as the
system moves away from the coast, with the potential for it to reach severe
tropical cyclone strength during Monday. Thereafter, system strength will depend
on whether a dry continental air mass can penetrate into the core.
Towards the end of next week it is possible the system will adopt a southerly
track as an upper trough approaches. Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is
possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-3 11:12 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0104 UTC 03/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 125.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [244 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1200: 15.1S 123.9E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  996
+24: 04/0000: 15.4S 122.5E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  994
+36: 04/1200: 15.7S 121.0E:     125 [230]:  045  [085]:  990
+48: 05/0000: 16.0S 119.3E:     155 [285]:  050  [095]:  988
+60: 05/1200: 16.4S 117.7E:     205 [375]:  055  [100]:  984
+72: 06/0000: 16.4S 116.5E:     250 [465]:  060  [110]:  980
REMARKS:
The centre was located using satellite imagery and surface observations.
Convective structure has weakened significantly over the last 24 hours due to
interaction with land and there is very little deep convection near the LLCC.
Surface observations and available ASCAT winds do not show any winds above 25
knots.
Dvorak analysis is questionable given the system is over land. A weakening plus
trend was assigned so FT is 1.0 and CI held at 1.5 due to constraints.
The low has recently been tracking to the WSW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south. CIMSS analysis indicated the system is currently under a low shear
environment. Intensity is likely to be constrained in the short term due to the
proximity to land but in the longer term the system is expected to move over
open water with SSTs about 30C. Despite this the objective guidance indicates
the system is unlikely to intensify rapidly and development is held  below
standard rate.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks has a moderate spread, especially
over the longer term, however there is high confidence in the track forecast for
the next 72 hours. The broadscale environment is expected to remain favourable
for continued development as the system moves away from the coast, with the
potential for it to reach severe tropical cyclone strength late on Monday or
early Tuesday. However most models indicate potential for dry air to wrap into
the core and weaken the system. Models have varied on the timing of this and not
all recent model runs have shown the dry air getting into the core.
Towards the end of next week it is possible the system will adopt a southerly
track as an upper trough approaches. Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is
possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

登陆减弱了。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-3 23:41 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0647 UTC 03/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 124.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [233 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: D1.5/1.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1800: 15.5S 123.6E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  994
+24: 04/0600: 15.9S 122.0E:     090 [165]:  045  [085]:  992
+36: 04/1800: 16.2S 120.4E:     120 [225]:  055  [100]:  986
+48: 05/0600: 16.7S 118.7E:     155 [285]:  060  [110]:  984
+60: 05/1800: 17.2S 117.4E:     200 [375]:  070  [130]:  975
+72: 06/0600: 18.1S 116.5E:     230 [425]:  070  [130]:  975
REMARKS:
The centre was located using satellite imagery. Convective structure has
weakened significantly over the last 24 hours due to interaction with land
however a good circulation is still evident on VIS imagery. The convection which
is present is located to the south of the LLCC consistent with the CIMSS
analysis of northerly shear of around 4.5m/s [at 00Z] .
Applicability of Dvorak analysis is questionable while the system is over land
and it has become difficult to determine pattern type with little convection
present. A weakening trend was assigned so MET was used to assign FT=CI=1.5.
Final intensity estimate is based on a subjective assessment of the trend in
system organisation and previous surface observations.
The low has recently been tracking to the SW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south.  Intensity is likely to be constrained in the short term due to the
proximity to land but in the longer term the system is expected to move over
open water with SSTs about 30C. Shear is expected to be low to moderate,
increasing on Wednesday under the influence of an approaching trough.
Intensification may occur at about the standard rate and hurricane strength is
anticipated by either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. System strength will also
depend on whether a dry air mass indicated by numerical models can penetrate
into the core.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks has a relatively low spread for the
next 48 hours. After that the spread of guidance increases, related to the
intensity of the system at that time. If the system weakens it is likely the
system will be steered by the lower levels and move away to the north. If it
remains stronger it may adopt a southerly track as an upper trough approaches.
Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-3 23:42 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1253 UTC 03/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 124.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [227 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/0000: 16.0S 123.2E:     055 [100]:  035  [065]:  995
+24: 04/1200: 16.3S 121.8E:     080 [150]:  045  [085]:  992
+36: 05/0000: 16.6S 120.2E:     105 [195]:  060  [110]:  983
+48: 05/1200: 17.2S 118.4E:     130 [240]:  060  [110]:  983
+60: 06/0000: 17.8S 117.3E:     170 [315]:  060  [110]:  982
+72: 06/1200: 18.8S 116.1E:     230 [425]:  055  [100]:  984
REMARKS:
The centre has been difficult to locate, lying outside radar range. Recent
microwave passes show a poorly defined LLCC. The current fix uses a combination
of satellite imagery and surface observations. Convective structure had weakened
during the day as the system interacted with land, however has recently started
to improve. Environmental shear is low at present, with CIMSS analysis of
northerly shear of around 2.5m/s [at 06Z] .
Current Dvorak analysis gives a DT=2.0 based on a 0.3 wrap. MET and PAT agree.
The low has recently been tracking to the SW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south.  Intensity will be constrained in the short term due to the proximity
to land, before moving over open water with SSTs about 30C during Monday. Shear
is expected to be low to moderate, before increasing on Wednesday as an upper
trough approaches. Under the expected track, the system is expected to encounter
a deep mass of dry air to the southwest which will limit intensification
potential.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks has a relatively low spread. If the
system attains a stronger intensity and is able to resist the intrusion of dry
air, it may adopt a southerly track ahead of the approaching upper trough. Under
this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

快出海了。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-4 12:10 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1837 UTC 03/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 124.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [221 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/0600: 16.4S 123.1E:     060 [110]:  035  [065]:  998
+24: 04/1800: 16.7S 121.8E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  996
+36: 05/0600: 17.0S 120.2E:     120 [225]:  050  [095]:  990
+48: 05/1800: 17.2S 118.6E:     155 [285]:  060  [110]:  982
+60: 06/0600: 17.7S 117.3E:     200 [375]:  055  [100]:  986
+72: 06/1800: 18.4S 116.4E:     250 [465]:  050  [095]:  986
REMARKS:
The centre has been difficult to locate, lying outside radar range. The current
fix uses a combination of satellite imagery and surface observations. Convective
structure had weakened during the day as the system interacted with land.
Environmental shear is low at present, with CIMSS analysis of northerly shear of
around 5m/s or less [at 12Z] .
Current Dvorak analysis gives a DT=1.5 based on MET and PAT.
The low has recently been tracking to the SW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south.  Intensity will be constrained in the short term due to the proximity
to land, before moving over open water with SSTs about 30C today. Shear is
expected to be low to moderate, before increasing on Wednesday as an upper
trough approaches. Under the expected track, the system is expected to encounter
a deep mass of dry air to the southwest which will limit intensification
potential.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks has a relatively low spread. If the
system attains a stronger intensity and is able to resist the intrusion of dry
air, it may adopt a southerly track ahead of the approaching upper trough. Under
this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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