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[南半球] 2011年4月北澳20S.

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-30 12:16 | 显示全部楼层
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 11:12am WST on Wednesday the 30th of March 2011
Valid until midnight WST Saturday  


Existing Cyclones:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A slowly developing monsoon trough lies through the northern Indian Ocean and
southern Arafura Sea. A developing tropical low [25U] near the northwest coast
of the Northern Territory is expected to move into the Timor Sea and develop
into a tropical cyclone on Friday. The system is expected to remain east of 125E
until Sunday, but may be located close to 125E late Saturday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Thursday    :Very Low
Friday      :Very Low
Saturday    :Moderate
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-30 12:49 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Wednesday 30 March 2011

Valid until the end of Saturday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A developing Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 10.7S,
132.5E, about 50km north northwest of Croker Island, at 9:30am CST on 30 March,
slow moving. The low is expected to move towards the southwest into the TIMOR
SEA and is expected to gradually strengthen, possibly reaching cyclone intensity
on Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Thursday:  Moderate.
Friday:  High.
Saturday: High.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-30 15:30 | 显示全部楼层
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2  
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Wednesday 30 March 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Tiwi
Islands and coastal communities between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including
Darwin.

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 70 kilometres north northwest
of Croker Island and 255 kilometres northeast of Darwin and is slow moving.

There is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing during Friday as the
tropical low moves into the Timor Sea, west of the Tiwi Islands. GALES are not
expected on the coast within 24 hours. However, gales are likely to develop on
Friday morning about the Tiwi islands, and may extend to the coast later on
Friday between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin, if the tropical low
takes a more southwest track.

The Territory Controller advises areas under Watch that now is the time to put
together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies and commence home
shelter preparations.

Residents in this Watch area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation
constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you
should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to
allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before
winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.6 degrees South 132.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-30 20:00 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0743 UTC 30/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 132.3E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [297 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar:
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1800: 10.6S 131.5E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1003
+24: 31/0600: 11.0S 130.7E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1002
+36: 31/1800: 11.6S 130.0E:     150 [280]:  030  [055]: 1002
+48: 01/0600: 12.1S 129.1E:     185 [345]:  035  [065]: 1000
+60: 01/1800: 12.8S 128.2E:     230 [430]:  045  [085]:  998
+72: 02/0600: 13.2S 127.2E:     280 [520]:  050  [095]:  996
REMARKS:
Tropical low has shown improved convective organisation during today, with
curved bands developing in the northern semicircle. Surface position north of
Croker Island, but circulation centre from satellite and radar may be further
west. Broad-scale environment is favourable with the 200 hPa ridge overhead,
deep moisture and a westerly wind surge to the north. A SE wind surge associated
with a low-level ridge to the south is forecast to interact with the low during
Thursday. Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east,
with a weak trough over central NT. Forecast track is southwest close to the
Tiwi Islands then into the Timor Sea where TC development is possible on Friday.
In the longer term, the system is forecast to move closer to the north Kimberley
coast late Friday or early Saturday.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-30 21:52 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1338 UTC 30/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 131.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [278 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar:
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0000: 10.8S 131.2E:     090 [165]:  020  [035]: 1000
+24: 31/1200: 11.3S 130.6E:     120 [220]:  025  [045]:  998
+36: 01/0000: 12.0S 129.8E:     150 [280]:  030  [055]:  998
+48: 01/1200: 12.7S 129.0E:     185 [345]:  040  [075]:  994
+60: 02/0000: 13.6S 128.1E:     230 [430]:  050  [095]:  987
+72: 02/1200: 14.3S 126.7E:     280 [520]:  045  [085]:  990
REMARKS:
Tropical low has shown slight increase in convection and curvature in past 24
hours, though still remains relatively unorganised. Latest satpix shows a burst
of convection close to centre on NW flank, though centre position is difficult
to locate. Broad-scale environment is favourable with the 200 hPa ridge
overhead, deep moisture and a westerly wind surge to the north. A SE wind surge
associated with a low-level ridge to the south is forecast to interact with the
low during Thursday. Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest
and east, with a weak trough over central NT. Forecast track is southwest close
to or over the Tiwi Islands then into the Timor Sea where TC development is
possible on Friday or Saturday. In the longer term, the system is forecast to
move closer to the north Kimberley coast on Saturday.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 11:31 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2004 UTC 30/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 131.5E
Location Accuracy: within 75 nm [140 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar:
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 10.9S 131.0E:     105 [195]:  025  [045]: 1000
+24: 31/1800: 11.6S 130.2E:     135 [250]:  025  [045]: 1000
+36: 01/0600: 12.2S 129.4E:     170 [310]:  035  [065]:  995
+48: 01/1800: 12.9S 128.5E:     200 [370]:  040  [075]:  992
+60: 02/0600: 13.6S 127.4E:     250 [460]:  050  [095]:  986
+72: 02/1800: 14.3S 125.7E:     295 [545]:  055  [100]:  984
REMARKS:
Position remains difficult to locate and is based on a combination of available
surface observations and persistence in motion. Animated IR imagery suggests a
mid-level centre located further west of the surface location, while radar
imagery suggests multiple vortices embedded within the larger circulation. ASCAT
pass at 1314Z depicts an elongated trough north of the Top End with a centre
north of the Cobourg Peninsula and the strongest winds well removed from the
system centre.
Current Dvorak intensity remains at T1.0. Still remains relatively unorganised.
Tropical low has shown slight increase in convection and curvature in past 24
hours, however is lacking deep convection near the system centre.
Broad-scale environment is relatively favourable for further intensification
located in deep moisture and a westerly wind surge to the north. A SE wind surge
associated with a low-level ridge to the south is forecast to interact with the
low during Thursday. Wind shear has increased over the system with CIMSS
estimate of about 20 knots, possibly a result of the 200 hPa ridge shifting just
south of the low level centre.
Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. Forecast track is southwest close to or over the
Tiwi Islands then into the Timor Sea In the longer term, the system is forecast
to move closer to the north Kimberley coast on Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 11:33 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0232 UTC 31/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 130.9E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 11.3S 130.3E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1003
+24: 01/0000: 11.9S 129.5E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1001
+36: 01/1200: 12.5S 128.9E:     155 [285]:  035  [065]:  998
+48: 02/0000: 13.2S 128.0E:     185 [345]:  045  [085]:  993
+60: 02/1200: 13.8S 126.8E:     235 [430]:  040  [075]:  995
+72: 03/0000: 14.3S 125.4E:     280 [520]:  035  [065]:  999
REMARKS:
Convective structure has not changed very much overnight, with a dominant curved
band in the NE semicircle. A mid-level centre from radar is displaced NW of the
surface LLCC north of Melville Island. A westerly wind burst is evident to the
north, while strong winds have been reported by a ship to the westsouthwest of
Darwin.
Current Dvorak intensity is assessed at T1.5, with a monsoon low structure
evident. Although the broad-scale environment is favourable for development,
intensification of the system has been inhibited by a lack of persistenct
convection close to the LLCC and NE vertical wind shear. A forecast return to
standard development rate would suggest TC development is possible late Friday
or early Saturday over the Timor Sea.
Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. The ridge to the southwest is forecast to
strengthen producing a forecast track towards the southwest, with a location
close to the north Kimberley coast by Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 12:51 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 31 March 2011

Valid until the end of Sunday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A developing Tropical Low, 1001 hPa, is located in the Timor Sea, near 11.1S,
130.5E, about 40km north northwest of Snake Bay, at 12:30pm CST on 31 March,
moving west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue
to move southwest and will gradually strengthen, possibly reaching cyclone
intensity late on Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Friday: High.
Saturday: High.
Sunday: Moderate.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 12:51 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 11:48am WST on Thursday the 31st of March 2011
Valid until midnight WST Sunday   


Existing Cyclones:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough lies through the northern Indian Ocean and southern Arafura
Sea. A developing tropical low [25U] near the northwest coast of the Northern
Territory is expected to move into the Timor Sea and develop into a tropical
cyclone late Friday or Saturday. The system is expected to enter the Western
Region during Sunday, but may be located close to 125E late Saturday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Friday      :Very Low
Saturday    :Moderate
Sunday      :High
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-31 16:10 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0805 UTC 31/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.2S
Longitude: 130.5E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1800: 11.7S 129.7E:     075 [140]:  025  [045]: 1003
+24: 01/0600: 12.3S 128.6E:     105 [195]:  030  [055]: 1001
+36: 01/1800: 13.0S 127.7E:     140 [255]:  035  [065]:  998
+48: 02/0600: 13.7S 126.3E:     170 [315]:  035  [065]:  999
+60: 02/1800: 14.2S 124.8E:     220 [405]:  040  [075]:  996
+72: 03/0600: 14.6S 123.5E:     265 [490]:  040  [075]:  995
REMARKS:
Convection has decreased diurnally around the low during the day apart from
persistent convection near the LLCC over and north of the Tiwi Islands. The
mid-level centre is evident on radar displaced W of the surface LLCC. A westerly
wind burst is evident to the north, while strong winds have been reported to the
southwest of the system.

Current Dvorak intensity is assessed at T1.5, with a broad monsoon low structure
evident. Although the environment is favourable for development, intensification
of the system has been inhibited by a lack of convection near the LLCC and
moderate NE vertical wind shear. A forecast return to standard development rate
would indicate TC development is possible early Saturday over the Timor Sea.

Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. The ridge to the southwest is forecast to
strengthen producing a forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to
the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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