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[南半球] 2011年4月北澳20S.

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发表于 2011-3-26 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Saturday 26 March 2011

Valid until the end of Tuesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low, 1006 hPa, is located in the western Arafura Sea, well north of the
Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to move slowly southwards over the Timor Sea
or western Arafura Sea during the next few days. The low is likely to intensify
further and may become a Tropical Cyclone near the northern or western Top End
or north Kimberley coast during the week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Sunday:  Low.
Monday:  Moderate.
Tuesday: Moderate.
IDE00006_201103260430.gif
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-27 12:51 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 27 March 2011

Valid until the end of Wednesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low, 1004 hPa, is located in the western Arafura Sea, northwest of the
Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to move slowly southwards over the Timor Sea
or western Arafura Sea during the next few days. The low may intensify further
and could be located near the northwestern Top End or in the southern Timor Sea
early in the week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Monday:  Low.
Tuesday:  Moderate.
Wednesday: Moderate.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-27 14:06 | 显示全部楼层
Another weak low north of Darwin will drift southwards and may develop during
the week, although it is expected to remain east of 125E for the outlook period.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Monday    :Very Low
Tuesday   :Very Low
Wednesday : Low
IDE00006_201103270430.gif
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-28 12:49 | 显示全部楼层
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

UPDATED Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf
of Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:05 am CST Monday 28 March 2011

Valid until the end of Wednesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the
Cobourg Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or
so before moving towards the south or southwest. The low may intensify further
later in the week if it remains over water.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Monday:  Low.
Tuesday:  Low.
Wednesday: Moderate.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-28 13:32 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 28 March 2011

Valid until the end of Thursday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the
Cobourg Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or
so before moving towards the south or southwest. The low may intensify further
later in the week if it remains over water.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Tuesday:  Low.
Wednesday:  Moderate.
Thursday: Moderate.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-28 15:07 | 显示全部楼层
Another low over the Arafura Sea is expected to drift to the south southwest
over the next couple of days. It may develop later in the week, but is expected
to remain east of 125E until at least Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday   :Very Low
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday  : Low
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-29 10:37 | 显示全部楼层
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

UPDATED Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf
of Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:25 am CST Tuesday 29 March 2011

Valid until the end of Thursday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the
Cobourg Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or
so before moving towards the southwest into the Timor Sea. The low may intensify
further later in the week if it remains over water.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Tuesday:  Low.
Wednesday:  Low.
Thursday: Moderate.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-29 13:00 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Tuesday 29 March 2011

Valid until the end of Friday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the Cobourg
Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or so
before moving southwest into the Timor Sea. The low is expected to gradually
strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Wednesday:  Low.
Thursday:  Moderate.
Friday: High.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-29 14:06 | 显示全部楼层
Another low over the southern Arafura Sea is expected to drift to the south
southwest over the next couple of days. It may develop later in the week, but is
expected to remain east of 125E until at least Friday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday  :Very Low
Friday    : Low
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-30 11:09 | 显示全部楼层
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1  
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Wednesday 30 March 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Tiwi
Islands.

At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 50 kilometres north northwest
of Croker Island and 215 kilometres east northeast of Snake Bay and is slow
moving.

There is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing during Friday as the
tropical low moves into the Timor Sea, west of the Tiwi Islands. GALES are not
expected at the Tiwi Islands within the next 24 hours but gales could develop
during Friday morning.

The Territory Controller advices communities under Watch that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies and commence
home shelter preparations.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.7 degrees South 132.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Wednesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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