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[南半球] 南太平洋19P.BUNE

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发表于 2011-3-26 08:39 | 显示全部楼层
track_2011032512_19P_ens.gif
集成预报

WTPS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 179.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 179.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.9S 179.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 25.0S 179.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 26.5S 179.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 30.4S 176.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 34.8S 175.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 251757Z
SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TC 19P HAS SLOWLY TURNED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS FROM A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 48, TC BUNE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72 IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.//
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 11:30 | 显示全部楼层
HURRICANE WARNING 037 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 25/1916 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6 SOUTH 179.6
WEST AT 251800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.6S 179.6W at 251800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 01 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.1S 179.8E AT 260600 UTC
              AND NEAR 23.7S 179.2E AT 261800 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 036.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 11:30 | 显示全部楼层
STORM WARNING 038  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 26/0044 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 977HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9
SOUTH 179.8 WEST AT 260000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.9S 179.8W at 260000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 2 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.3S 179.6E AT 261200 UTC
              AND NEAR 24.3S 179.1E AT 270000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 037.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 11:31 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/2001 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 967HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 22.6S 179.6W AT 251800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AT ABOUT 1 KNOT. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. BUNE REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING
EVIDENT APART FROM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A WRAP
OF 1.1 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING DT=4.0. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 4.0,
THEREFORE T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION DURING EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA
THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY FOR A PERIOD AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.1S 179.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.2E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.7S 178.8E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 25.8S 179.3E MOV SE AT 9 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
BUNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260200 UTC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 11:31 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/0121 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 977HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9S
179.8W AT 260000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS,
THOUGH SOME REDEVELOP APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING DURING THE PAST 3
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. BUNE REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING
EVIDENT APART FROM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A WRAP
OF 0.9 ON A LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING DT=3.5. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 3.5,
THEREFORE T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA THIS
WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY FOR A PERIOD AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS AND THEREFORE STORM FORCE WINDS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS
BUNE TRACKS NEAR THE KERMADEC ISLANDS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.3S 179.6E MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 24.3S 179.1E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 25.3S 178.8E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 26.8S 179.8W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 250800 UTC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 13:22 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS41 PHFO 252329
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2330 UTC FRI MAR 25 2011

A. Tropical cyclone Bune.

B. 25/2052Z.

C. 22.8°S.

D. 179.8°W.

E. Goes-11/mtsat.

F. T4.0/4.0/s0.0/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir/vis.

H. Remarks: 1.1 wrap on log 10 results in DT of 4.0. MET and PT agree. Final T based on DT.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 14:25 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS41 PHFO 260521
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0525 UTC SAT MAR 26 2011

A. Tropical cyclone Bune.

B. 26/0432Z.

C. 23.0°S.

D. 179.9°W.

E. Goes-11/mtsat.

F. T4.0/4.0/s0.0/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir/vis.

H. Remarks: 1.2 wrap on log 10 results in DT of 4.0. MET and PT agree. Final T based on DT.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$


Ryshko.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 15:20 | 显示全部楼层
HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 26/0702 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0 SOUTH 180
AT 260600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.0S 180 AT 260600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY REINTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.7S 179.4E AT 261800 UTC
              AND NEAR 24.8S 179.2E AT 270600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 16:22 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/0756 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S
180.0E AT 260600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY
REINTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM IMPROVED AGAIN IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER
SOME WEAKENING IN THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED
BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE.SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. BUNE
REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING EVIDENT APART FROM A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND MG SURROUND YEILDS
DT=4.5, MT= 4.5 AND PT=4.0, FT BASED ON DT. THEREFORE,
T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION
DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA THIS WEEKEND.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.4E MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.8S 179.2E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 26.3S 179.8E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 28.0S 178.6W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 261400 UTC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-26 23:36 | 显示全部楼层
HURRICANE WARNING 040 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 26/1311 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 973HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2
SOUTH 179.4 EAST AT 261200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 23.2S 179.4E at 261200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
271200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.2S 179.0E AT 270000 UTC
              AND NEAR 25.5S 179.3E AT 271200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 039.
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