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[南半球] 南太平洋19P.BUNE

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 10:37 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/2226 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6S
179.7W AT 242100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 2
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
BUNE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY WEAK NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND AND MG
CENTRE WITH AN ELONGATED EYE, GIVING DT=4.5. MT AND PT SUGGEST 4.0,
THEREFORE T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE MAINTAINING A SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250900 UTC 22.1S 179.8W MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 252100 UTC 22.5S 179.8E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260900 UTC 22.9S 179.4E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 262100 UTC 23.3S 178.9E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 250200 UTC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 10:37 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/0152 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 976HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8S
179.4W AT 250000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. A RAGGED EYE PATTERN EMERGED
OVERNIGHT, WHICVH BECAME MORE DEFINED FOR A PERIOD THE MORNING.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH MG SURROUND,
GIVING DT=4.0. MT AND PT SUGGEST 4.0, THEREFORE T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 22.3S 179.3W MOV S AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 22.8S 179.8W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.2S 179.7E MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 23.7S 179.0E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 250800 UTC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
FXZS60 NSTU 250001
AFDPPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
200 PM SST THU MAR 24 2011
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HURRICANE BUNE WAS CENTERED SOUTHWEST
OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS AT 21.6S 179.7W MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY AT 10 AM SST. A
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS...
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WINDS.
.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET FCST PERIOD. RELATIVELY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE TRADE-WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PPG WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
BAQUI
发表于 2011-3-25 10:49 | 显示全部楼层
已经升格为旋风
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组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 11:00 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS41 PHFO 242321
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2320 UTC THU MAR 24 2011

A. Tropical cyclone Bune.

B. 24/2222Z.

C. 21.9°S.

D. 179.6°W.

E. Goes-11/mtsat.

F. T4.0/4.0/d1.5/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir/vis.

H. Remarks: Embedded center of lg yields a DT of 4.5. PT is 4.0 as is MET which is used for FT and CI.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$
BURKE


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 15:20 | 显示全部楼层
HURRICANE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 25/0701 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4 SOUTH 179.2
WEST AT 250600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.4S 179.2W AT 250600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS BY
260600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 179.5W AT 251800 UTC
              AND NEAR 23.2S 179.9W AT 260600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 034.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 16:13 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/0744 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4S
179.2W AT 250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS BY 260600 UTC.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A
SLIGHT SOUTHEAST TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND, GIVING DT=4.5, MET=4.5 AND
PT=4.0. THEREFORE T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 22.9S 179.5W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.2S 179.9W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.2E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.4S 178.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 251400 UTC.
发表于 2011-3-25 18:56 | 显示全部楼层
75knots
   
PS.又是一张图都没有{:soso__17400479465078546498_2:}
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 21:31 | 显示全部楼层
HURRICANE WARNING 036 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 25/1313 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 969HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5 SOUTH 179.6
WEST AT 251200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.5S 179.6W AT 251200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.8S 180.0E AT 260000 UTC
              AND NEAR 23.2S 179.4E AT 261200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 035.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-25 22:20 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/1414 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 969HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5S
179.6W AT 251200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS. CYCLONE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28
TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST TRACK IN
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM BEING MORE DOMINANT. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON CURVED
BAND PATTERN 0.95 WRAP, GIVING DT=4.0, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.5. THEREFORE
T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE
SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 22.8S 180.0E MOV SW AT 2 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.2S 179.4E MOV WSW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 23.8S 178.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 24.5S 178.7E MOV S AT 4 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 252000 UTC.
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