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[南半球] 南太平洋19P.BUNE

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 10:56 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 24/0104 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1 SOUTH 179.5 WEST
AT 240000 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 07 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 TO 150 MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 027.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 10:56 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/2010 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.5S 179.0W AT
231800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO BE
30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
THE DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE DEPRESSION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MAITAINING A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR TD13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 240200 UTC OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/0148 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [995HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.1S 179.5W AT
240000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 7 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW EVIDENT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.45 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL,
GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
THE SYSTEM AND MAITAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 240800 UTC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13F. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 6:08am on Thursday the 24th of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 996 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20 DECIMAL
4 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 240 KM SOUTH OF LAKEBA OR ABOUT
360 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 5AM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/HR. IT IS INTENSIFYING AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION  MAY CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER LAU,
LOMAIVITI AND THE NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 45 KM/HR TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 75 KM/HR. WINDS
TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WITH SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM MIDDAY
TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS POSSIBLE. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 996 HPA WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 240 KM
SOUTH OF LAKEBA OR ABOUT 360 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 5AM TODAY. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/HR. IT IS
INTENSIFYING AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS.A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
FOR LAU WATERS AND KORO SEA: CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
FROM MIDDAY TODAY. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELLS.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
WILL BE ISSUED AT MIDDAY TODAY OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 10:58 | 显示全部楼层
Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13F. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 10:27am on Thursday the 24th of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE LOMAIVITI AND
NORTHERN LAU GROUP.
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
STRONG WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE LOMAIVITI AND NORTHERN
LAU GROUP.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 995 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20
DECIMAL 8 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 290 KM SOUTH OF LAKEBA OR
ABOUT 395 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 9AM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR. THE DEPRESSION IS INTENSIFYING AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION MAY CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
FOR SOUTHERN LAU:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 45 KM/HR TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 85 KM/HR AND
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE  WITH SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR
WITH GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS IS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS LIKELY.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
FOR LAU WATERS AND KORO SEA: CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, REACHING
35 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAU WATERS AND KORO SEA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.
ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
ROUGH SEAS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AT MIDDAY
TODAY OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 10:58 | 显示全部楼层
Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13F. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 12:29pm on Thursday the 24th of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
STRONG WIND WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE LAU GROUP.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 995 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 3 WEST OR ABOUT 315 KM SOUTH OF LAKEBA OR
ABOUT 400 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 11AM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/HR. THE DEPRESSION IS INTENSIFYING
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION MAY CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
FOR THE LAU GROUP:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 45 TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 85 KM/HR. WINDS POSSIBLY
REACHING DAMAGING GALE FORCE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GROUP TODAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR AND GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING
INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS LIKELY.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
FOR LAU WATERS AND KORO SEA: CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, REACHING
35 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAU WATERS AND KORO SEA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.
ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
ROUGH SEAS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AT 6PM
TODAY.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 11:11 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS41 PHFO 232254
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2251 UTC WED MAR 23 2011

A. Tropical disturbance 13F.

B. 23/2222Z.

C. 20.7°S.

D. 179.6°W.

E. Goes-11/mtsat.

F. T2.5/2.5/d1.0/24 hrs.

G. Vis/eir.

H. Remarks: Curved band pattern with a wrap of 0.4 yields a DT of 2.5. Pat agrees. MET yields a 2.0. FT based on DT and Pat.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$
MORRISON


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 14:08 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING 029 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 24/0532 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0
SOUTH 179.9 WEST AT 240400UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.0S 179.9E AT 240400 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.0S 180 AT 241600 UTC
              AND NEAR 22.7S 180 AT 250400 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 028.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 14:08 | 显示全部楼层
Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
BUNE. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 5:44pm on Thursday the 24th of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 990 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21 DECIMAL 0
SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU
OR ABOUT 365 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 4PM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15  KM/HR FURTHER AWAY FROM FIJI.
FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
NORTHERLY WINDS 45 TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 85 KM/HR. PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS LIKELY.THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE
FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAU WATERS AND KORO SEA:
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 33 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.
ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 KNOTS. ROUGH
SEAS.
POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE BUNE. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 7.30PM
TONIGHT.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 14:09 | 显示全部楼层
FXZS60 NSTU 240047
AFDPPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
200 PM SST WED MAR 23 2011
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED AT ABOUT
730 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING.
SATELLITE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTIONS ASSOICATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND GENTLE EASTERLIES THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES WESTWARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE RUNS AND KEEP THE PREVIOUS FCST. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WEEK.
&&
.PPG WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
MALALA
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