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[南半球] 南太平洋19P.BUNE

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 13:30 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS41 PHFO 230518
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC WED MAR 23 2011

A. Tropical disturbance 13F.

B. 23/0432Z.

C. 17.5°S.

D. 176.4°W.

E. Goes-11/mtsat.

F. T1.5/1.5/d0.5/6 hrs.

G. Vis/eir.

H. Remarks: Low-level center difficult to identify. Shear pattern with center less than 45 nm from EIR bd curve dg gives unrepresentative DT of 2.5. PT is 1.5. FT based on PT.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$


Ryshko.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 14:51 | 显示全部楼层
Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13F. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 5:56pm on Wednesday the 23rd of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI AND
KADAVU.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI
GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 998 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 190 KM SOUTHEAST OF
LAKEBA OR ABOUT 440 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 5PM TODAY. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 25 KM/HR. IT IS INTENSIFYING
AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION  MAY CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER LAU,
LOMAIVITI AND  KADAVU IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI AND KADAVU :
FRESH AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH
TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING 45 KM/HR TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 75 KM/HR
FROM EARLY TOMORROW. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH
SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER
TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN  RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS LIKELY.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS, TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST TOMORROW
. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
FOR LAU WATERS, KORO SEA AND KADAVU WATERS: SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.  WINDS GRADUALLY
TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS FROM LATER
TOMORROW. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST
TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS


THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
WILL BE ISSUED AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 15:33 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING 025 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 23/0704 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7 SOUTH 177.8 WEST
AT 230600 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 TO 150 MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 24.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 19:50 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/0746 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.7S 177.8W AT
230600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND DEVELOPING.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.


ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLOING IN THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.

POTENTIAL FOR TD 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 231400 UTC OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 20:27 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS41 PHFO 231118
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1120 UTC WED MAR 23 2011

A. Tropical disturbance 13F.

B. 23/1032Z.

C. 19.3°S.

D. 177.2°W.

E. Goes-11/mtsat.

F. T2.0/2.0/d1.0/12 hrs.

G. EIR.

H. Remarks: Low-level center difficult to identify. Shear pattern with center less than 45 nm from EIR bd curve dg gives DT of 2.5. PT agrees. FT based on PT, but constraints limit FT to 2.0.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$


Ryshko.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 21:18 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 23/1303 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0 SOUTH 178.8 WEST
AT 231200 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 TO 150 MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 25.
发表于 2011-3-23 21:28 | 显示全部楼层
联合台风警报中心也TCFA了
这个螺旋形PT2.5没问题
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 22:05 | 显示全部楼层
Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13F. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 12:18am on Thursday the 24th of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI
GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 998 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 190 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
LAKEBA OR ABOUT 385 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 11PM TONIGHT. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/HR. IT IS
INTENSIFYING AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION  MAY CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER LAU,
LOMAIVITI AND  KADAVU IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI AND KADAVU :
CLOCKWISE WINDS 45 KM/HR TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 75 KM/HR. WINDS
TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WITH SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER
TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN  RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS POSSIBLE.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
FOR LAU WATERS, KORO SEA AND KADAVU WATERS: CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.  WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AND MAY INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS
DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE, NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
WILL BE ISSUED AT 6AM TODAY OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 22:19 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/1403 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.0S 177.8W AT
231200 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM
BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND WITH
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG PROJECTED PATH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A SOUTHERLY TRACK.
POTENTIAL FOR TD13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232000 UTC OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-24 10:55 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 23/1855 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5 SOUTH 179.0 WEST
AT 231800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 TO 150 MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.
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