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[南半球] 南太平洋19P.BUNE

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发表于 2011-3-22 10:51 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 10:51am on Tuesday the 22nd of March 2011

Situation: A trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the
eastern parts of the group and start to affect Fiji from tomorrow.
Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group:
Today: Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms over the
western parts of larger islands. Elsewhere, occasional showers and a
few thunderstoms. .
Tomorrow: Rain and thunderstorms over the eastern parts of the group,
gradually spreading westwards.
Moderate northeast to southeast winds, fresh at times.
Moderate to rough seas.


Outlook for THURSDAY : Rain and thunderstorms over most places. Flash
flooding of low lying areas possible.

For Navua / Suva / Nausori :
Some showers today, rain and thunderstorms from later tomorrow.
Outlook for THURSDAY : Rain and few thunderstorms.

For Nadi / Lautoka / Ba :
Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms today, rain and
thunderstorms from later tomorrow.
Outlook for THURSDAY : Rain and a few thunderstorms.

For Labasa :
Afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms today, rain and
thunderstorms from later tomorrow.
Outlook for THURSDAY : Rain and a few thunderstorms.   

For Savusavu : Cloudy periods with some showers today, rain and
thunderstorms from later tomorrow.
Outlook for THURSDAY : Rain and a few thunderstorms.

For Rotuma : Moderate easterly winds.
Cloudy periods with brief showers.
Moderate seas.
Outlook for THURSDAY : Some showers.
gms_vis.gif
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-22 13:39 | 显示全部楼层
FXZS60 NSTU 220101
AFDPPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
200 PM SST MON MAR 21 2011
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT
400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERIES AND THE LATEST TRIMM PR SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIONS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. MODELS IS ALSO MOVING
THE SYSTEM WESTWAED.  THUS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE/TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF MANUA BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL
&&
.PPG WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
AKAPO

NWS Samoa看好。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-22 18:19 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/0857 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F ANALYSED NEAR 17.2S 174.9W AT 220600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH ANIMATION AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DISPLACED FROM SURFACE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 11:12 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/2257 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.2S 176.8W
AT 222100 UTC MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND
DEVELOPING. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE
ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTRUBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 11:14 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/0204 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.9S 177.2W
AT 230000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND
DEVELOPING.


ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM
WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 230800 UTC OR EARLIER.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 11:19 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS41 PHFO 222259
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2300 UTC TUE MAR 22 2011

A. Tropical disturbance 13F.

B. 22/2222Z.

C. 17.7°S.

D. 176.3°W.

E. Goes-11.

F. T1.0/1.0/initial fix.

G. Vis/ir.

H. Remarks: Low-level center difficult to identify. .20 wrap yields a DT of 1.0. PT is 1.0 and used for FT and CI.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$
BURKE


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 11:30 | 显示全部楼层
FXZS60 NSTU 230115
AFDPPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
200 PM SST TUE MAR 22 2011
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF
TUTUILA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. CONVECTIONS
FROM THIS MORNING OVER THE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR
FIJI AND TONGA THIS WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FAR SOUTH MOVES EAST.
AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WEST.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED BY THURSDAY. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO GENTLE EASTERLIS BY WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS
BY THE NEW WEEK. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS UNTIL FURTHER RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE EAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL
&&
.PPG WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
MALALA
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 11:31 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING 024 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 23/0118 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9 SOUTH 177.2
WEST AT 230000 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 80 TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTRE IN
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH SECTOR.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 11:32 | 显示全部楼层
FMS对13F20102011发GW和advisory了,为命名做准备。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-23 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13F. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 12:38pm on Wednesday the 23rd of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI AND
KADAVU.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI
GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 1003 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
LAKEBA OR ABOUT 465 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT MIDDAY TODAY. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 KM/HR. IT IS INTENSIFYING
AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION  MAY CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER LAU,
LOMAIVITI AND  KADAVU IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI AND KADAVU :
FRESH AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
45 KM/HR TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 75 KM/HR FROM TOMORROW. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES
AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
.THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS.
FOR LAU WATERS, KORO SEA AND KADAVU WATERS: SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.  WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND MAY INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. HEAVY
SWELLS DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
WILL BE ISSUED AT 6PM TODAY OR EARLIER.
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