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[南半球] 2011年3月南印度洋旋风18S CHERONO

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-20 10:52 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 191837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 64.2E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /W  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 70 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 110   SE: 335   SO: 260   NO: 055
34 KT       NE:       SE: 150   SO: 150   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 280 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/20 06 UTC: 21.0S/61.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/03/20 18 UTC: 22.1S/58.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/03/21 06 UTC: 22.9S/56.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/03/21 18 UTC: 24.0S/54.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/03/22 06 UTC: 25.2S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/03/22 18 UTC: 26.9S/53.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  23/03/2011 18 UTC: 28.9S/56.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM STILL SHOW A SHEAR PATTERN WITH AN ESTIMATED LLCC LOCATED AT
MORE THAN 75 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF MAIN CONVECTION WHICH STILL SHOW SOME
FLUCTUATIONS. WIND STRUCTURE REMAIN VERY ASYMETRIC WITH ALL THE
STRONGEST WINDS (LIKELY UP TO GALES FORCE WINDS) LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
EX-CHERONO IS NOW RACING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS (260/13) AND IS NOW LOCATED
ABOUT 80 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. IT SHOULD PASS
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ISLAND AND THIS HIGH
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE MOST FAVOURABLE FOR THE ISLAND AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD REM
AIN OFFSHORE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUANDRANT AND SHOULD ALSO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYZE AND NWP MODELS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROCHING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A
REGENERATION.
HOWEVER STRONG NEAR GALE FORCE TO LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD EXIST
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL MONDAY.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIR GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE UP TO J+2/J+3.
THE MORE REALISTIC FORECAST BEYOND IS A RECURVE OF THE TRACK
SOUTH-EASTWARD IN RELATION WITH A GAP IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE,
AND DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-20 10:53 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 200042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 20/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/20 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 63.0E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /S  0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 075   SE: 335   SO: 335   NO:
34 KT       NE:       SE: 130   SO: 130   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 295 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/20 12 UTC: 21.6S/60.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/03/21 00 UTC: 22.8S/57.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/03/21 12 UTC: 24.1S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/22 00 UTC: 25.4S/53.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/22 12 UTC: 27.2S/53.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/23 00 UTC: 28.9S/55.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  24/03/2011 00 UTC: 30.3S/60.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED AROUND 21Z AT ABOUT 40 KM SOUTH OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND
WHICH REPORTED AT PLAINE CORAIL A MSLP AT 1000.2 HPA AND
WESTNORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17 KT. MSLP HAS BEEN ADJESTED ACCORDINGLY.
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT (CLOUDS TOPS UP TO -85C ON MET7 IR IMAGERY). STRUCTURE
REMAINS
SHEARED AND ASYMETRIC; ASCAT SWATH OF 17:01Z CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE
OF
GALES OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINU TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY ALOFT AS THE
SYSTEM
IS APPROCHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
MODELS
OF THE LAST 12Z RUN (AS ECMWF AND FRENCH MODEL ARPEGE) CLEARLY
SUGGEST
AN INTERACTION BETWEEN EX-CHERONO AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY
AND
TUESDAY ...
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE TOWARDS AN HYBRID
FORM
...MEANS SUBTROPICAL FORM (SUGGESTED BY LATEST PHASIS DIAGRAM FRM
GFS).
CONSEQUENTLY, THESE MODELS RESTRENGHEN SOMEWHAT THE SYSTEM.
THIS SCENARIO APPEAR NOW LIKELY AND IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY
FORECAST.
THE CURRENT TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND, THE MORE REALISTIC FORECAST REMAINS
RECURVATURE OF THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS IN
RELATION
WITH A GAP IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AND GRADUAL DISSIPATION
OF
THE SYSTEM AS THE U
PPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARDS.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-20 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 200627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 21/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/20 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9S / 61.7E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /S  0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 074   SE: 333   SO: 333   NO:
34 KT       NE:       SE: 129   SO: 129   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 440 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/20 18 UTC: 21.9S/58.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/03/21 06 UTC: 23.2S/56.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/03/21 18 UTC: 24.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/22 06 UTC: 25.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , SUBTROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/22 18 UTC: 27.5S/53.7E, MAX WIND=035KT , SUBTROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/23 06 UTC: 29.3S/56.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , SUBTROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  24/03/2011 06 UTC: 30.4S/62.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , SUBTROPICAL.
120H: 25/03/2011 06 UTC: 30.3S/65.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5
CONVECTION KEEPS ON FLARING UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SHEARED AND METEOSAT7 VISIBLE CHANNEL IMAGERY
SHOWS A
TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL VORTEX ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP
CONVCETIVE ACTIVITY.
STRUCTURE IS ASYMETRIC WITH GALES FORCE WINDS OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINU TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY ALOFT AS THE
SYSTEM
IS APPROCHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
MODELS
OF THE LAST 12Z RUN (AS ECMWF AND FRENCH MODEL ARPEGE) CLEARLY
SUGGEST
AN INTERACTION BETWEEN EX-CHERONO AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY
AND
TUESDAY ...
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE TOWARDS AN HYBRID
FORM
...MEANS SUBTROPICAL FORM (SUGGESTED BY LATEST PHASIS DIAGRAM FROM
GFS).
THESE MODELS THERFORE RESTRENGHEN SOMEWHAT THE SYSTEM.
THIS SCENARIO APPEAR NOW LIKELY AND IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY
FORECAST.
THE CURRENT TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND, THE MORE REALISTIC FORECAST REMAINS
RECURVATURE OF THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS IN
RELATION
WITH A GAP IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AND GRADUAL DISSIPATION
OF
THE SYSTEM AS THE U
PPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARDS.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-20 20:49 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 201241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 22/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7S / 60.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 075   SE: 330   SO: 330   NO: 055
34 KT       NE:       SE: 130   SO: 130   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 440 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/21 00 UTC: 22.9S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2011/03/21 12 UTC: 24.2S/55.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/03/22 00 UTC: 25.5S/54.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/22 12 UTC: 26.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/23 00 UTC: 28.3S/54.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/23 12 UTC: 29.5S/57.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  24/03/2011 12 UTC: 30.7S/65.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 25/03/2011 12 UTC: 30.4S/75.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS MORE
CLOSER TO
THE CENTER WITHIN THE LAST PAST HOURS.
LLCC IS NO MORE EXPOSED SINCE 1030Z BUT 0910Z TRMM MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY
REVEALED JUST BEFORE A LESS DEFINED LLCC THAN THE PREVIOUS 0414Z F18
IMAGERY.
IT IS THEREFORE UNLIKELY THAT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCHE HAS
ENOUGH STRENGHTENED TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM HAVING REACH BACK MODERATE
STORM
STAGE.
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HOWEVER ONLY EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. CONVECTION KEEPS ON FLARING UP , WELL SUSTAINED BY THE
VERY
FAVOURABLE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
STRUCTURE IS ASYMETRIC WITH STRONGESTS WINDS EXTENDING FAR IN THE
SOUTH
DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
VERTICAL WINDHSEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN GRADUALLY ALOFT AS
THE
SYSTEM IS APPROCHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SEVERAL NWP MODELS (AS ECMWF AND FRENCH MODEL ARPEGE) CLEARLY SUGGEST
AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN EX-CHERONO AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ...THERMODYNAMICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE
TOWARDS
AN HYBRID FORM ...MEANS SUBTROPICAL FORM (SUGGESTED BY PHASIS DIAGRAM
FROM GFS).
THIS SCENARIO APPEAR NOW LIKELY AND IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY
FORECAST.
THE CURRENT TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND, THE MORE REALISTIC FORECAST REMAINS
RECURVATURE OF THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS IN
RELATION
WITH A GAP IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-21 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 201820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 23/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/20 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 59.8E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /S  0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 075   SE: 330   SO: 330   NO: 055
34 KT       NE:       SE: 130   SO: 130   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 460 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/21 06 UTC: 23.3S/57.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/03/21 18 UTC: 24.5S/55.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/03/22 06 UTC: 26.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/22 18 UTC: 27.7S/54.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/23 06 UTC: 28.7S/55.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/23 18 UTC: 29.8S/58.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  24/03/2011 18 UTC: 31.2S/67.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 25/03/2011 18 UTC: 30.9S/77.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5
CONVECTVE ACTIVITY HAS LESSEN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.
CENTER HAS BEEN LOCATED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE SSMIS AT 14.34Z.
LOW LEVEL CENTER KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD WHEN MAIN CONVECTION IS
BLOWN TOWARDS SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE LAST ANIMATED IR PICTURES.
UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD A TROUGH LOCATED
SOUTH-WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND.
THE WIND PATTERN OF THE REMNANT LOW REMAINS ASYMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CICRLE IN RELATION WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, NOME OF THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM
SHOULD ENTER IN PHASE WTH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EX-CHERONO
SHOULD EVOLVE IN A SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE (CF PHASIS DIAGRAM FROM GFS).
BEYOND J+3 SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH-WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, IT SHOULD SLOW DONWN AND
THE RECURVE SOUTH-EAST AND THEN EASTWARD.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-21 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 210007
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 24/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/21 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 58.7E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /S  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 055   SE: 400   SO: 370   NO: 090
34 KT       NE:       SE: 150   SO: 150   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/21 12 UTC: 23.8S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/03/22 00 UTC: 25.0S/54.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/03/22 12 UTC: 26.2S/54.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/23 00 UTC: 28.0S/54.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/23 12 UTC: 29.3S/57.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/24 00 UTC: 30.2S/60.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  25/03/2011 00 UTC: 31.2S/70.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 26/03/2011 00 UTC: 33.3S/81.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
CONVECTVE ACTIVITY HAS LESSENING FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS.
CENTER HAS BEEN LOCATED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AVHRR-NOAA18 AT 21.19Z.
LOW LEVEL CENTER KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD.
UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD A TROUGH WEST OF
THE SYSTEM.
THE WIND PATTERN OF THE REMNANT LOW REMAINS ASYMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CICRLE IN RELATION WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE (CF ASCAT DATA AT 18.18Z).
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM SHOULD
ENTER IN PHASE WTH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EX-CHERONO SHOULD
EVOLVE IN A SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE (CF PHASIS DIAGRAM FROM GFS).
SURFACE WIND SHOULD STENGTHEN.
BEYOND J+3 (WEDNESDAY) SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH-WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, IT SHOULD SLOW DONWN AND
THE RECURVE SOUTH-EAST AND THEN EASTWARD.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-21 15:08 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 210641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 25/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1S / 58.1E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 055   SE: 400   SO: 370   NO: 090
34 KT       NE:       SE: 150   SO: 150   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/21 18 UTC: 24.8S/55.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/03/22 06 UTC: 26.3S/55.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/03/22 18 UTC: 28.0S/56.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/23 06 UTC: 29.3S/59.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/23 18 UTC: 30.1S/63.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/24 06 UTC: 30.5S/69.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  25/03/2011 06 UTC: 32.6S/81.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 26/03/2011 06 UTC: 31.6S/88.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=2.5
CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND REMAINS CONFINED IN THE SOUTHERN
PART
OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS STILL UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR.
LLCC IS
WELL VISIBLE ON LATEST CC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE WINDS STRUCTURE REMAINS ASYMMETRIC WITH
STRONGER
WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES (CF ASCAT DATA AT 20/1818Z).
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH-WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND
RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXISTING
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER
IN
PHASE WTH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EX-CHERONO SHOULD
EVOLVE IN
A SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE (CF PHASIS DIAGRAM FROM GFS). SURFACE WINDS
MIGHT STRENGTH
EN SOME STILL DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SYSTEM.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN
THE
SOUTH LATITUDES WESTERLY CIRCULATION .=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-21 21:18 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 211246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 26/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/21 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5S / 57.4E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /S  0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 110 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 090   SE: 400   SO: 370   NO: 090
34 KT       NE:       SE: 240   SO: 150   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/22 00 UTC: 24.8S/55.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/03/22 12 UTC: 26.3S/56.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/03/23 00 UTC: 27.1S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/23 12 UTC: 27.5S/59.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/24 00 UTC: 27.8S/60.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/24 12 UTC: 28.0S/63.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  25/03/2011 12 UTC: 28.2S/66.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=2.5
CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND REMAINS CONFINED IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS STILL UNDERGOING A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR
GENERATED BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXISTING VERY CLOSE IN THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. LLCC IS MORE OR LESS VISIBLE DUE TO BLOW UP OF CONVECTION
OCCURING SINCE
THE LAST NIGHT. ASCAT SWATH 0523Z CONFIRMS THE VERY ASYMMETRIC WINDS
STRUCTURE WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
AFTER A REGULAR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARD THEN EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HEURES.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER IN PHASE WTH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EX-CHERONO SHOULD EVOLVE IN A SUBTROPICAL
STRUCTURE (CF PHASIS DIAGRAM FROM GFS). SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING. FROM
WEDNESDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BEYOND
DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTH LATITUDES WESTERLY CIRCULATION.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON CEP NWP MODEL.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-22 10:34 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 211818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 27/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/21 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3S / 57.9E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /S  0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 090   SE: 410   SO: 370   NO: 090
34 KT       NE:       SE: 240   SO: 150   NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 440 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/22 06 UTC: 25.2S/58.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2011/03/22 18 UTC: 26.5S/58.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2011/03/23 06 UTC: 27.9S/59.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2011/03/23 18 UTC: 28.9S/61.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2011/03/24 06 UTC: 28.9S/63.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2011/03/24 18 UTC: 28.8S/64.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  25/03/2011 18 UTC: 28.9S/66.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
120H: 26/03/2011 18 UTC: 30.0S/67.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=2.5
CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND MAINLY CONFINED IN THE SOUTHERN
PART
OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS STILL UNDERGOING A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDSHEAR
GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXISTING VERY CLOSE IN THE WEST
OF
THE SYSTEM.
LLCC IS MORE OR LESS VISIBLE RELATED TO BLOW UP OF CONVECTION
ASCAT SWATH 0523Z CONFIRMS THE VERY ASYMMETRIC WINDS STRUCTURE WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
MENTIONNED SPEED IS COMPUTED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS INTERVAL.
AFTER A REGULAR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGAN
RECURVING
SOUTH-EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD AT LEAD TIME 24 TO
36
HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PHASED WITH THE
APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EX-CHERONO SHOULD THEREFORE EVOLVE TO A SUBTROPICAL HYBRID STRUCTURE
(REFER TO GFS PHASIS DIAGRAM).
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT IN THE
SOUTHERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY,
SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND PROGRESSIVELY FILL IN IN
THE
WESTERLY MID-LATITUDES CIRCULATION.=
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-22 10:34 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 220034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 28/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7  (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/22 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 58.1E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /D / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE:       SE: 370   SO: 240   NO:
34 KT       NE:       SE: 148   SO:       NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 407 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/22 12 UTC: 27.3S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/03/23 00 UTC: 28.7S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2011/03/23 12 UTC: 30.0S/59.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2011/03/24 00 UTC: 30.8S/61.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2011/03/24 12 UTC: 30.9S/63.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2011/03/25 00 UTC: 30.6S/65.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM KEEPS ON GRADUALLY WEAKENING UNDERGOING A STRENGHTENING WEST-NORTH
-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR.
IT PROGRESSIVILY LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AIR PENETRATES GRADUALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE BEGINNING PHASED INTERRACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
EX-CHERONO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY  SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN EASTWARDS AT LEAD TIME 24H.
IT SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN IN THE WESTERLY MID-LATITUDES CIRCULATION.
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION.
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