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[南半球] 2011年3月莫桑比克海峡LPA

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发表于 2011-3-5 20:26 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
AWIO20 FMEE 051055
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/05 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Transequatorial monsoon flow remains weak (5-10kt) and feeds a very
scattered ITCZ waving north of 10S east of 50E and extending down
to 20S in the Mozambique Channel
Deep convective activity mainly exists in the vicinity of the
Chagos, between Agalega and Farquhar
and also in the Mozambique
Channel between 12S and 18S.
Ascat 0602Z swath shows a bad defined , broad and weak clockwise
circulation 1008 hPa centered
near 14.5S/42.5E.
Within beginning of the next week, low level inflow is expected to
improve along african coastline and some available NWP models
forecast a cyclogenesis in this area on and after tuesday.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
For the next 36 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected,
but potential becomes beyond poor to fair
in the Mozambique Channel
DerImageSatellite.jpg
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-6 20:37 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 061043
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/06 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Transequatorial monsoon flow remains weak (5-10kt) and feeds a very
scattered ITCZ waving north of 10S east of 50E and extending down
to 20S in the Mozambique Channel
Deep convective activity mainly exists in the vicinity of the
Chagos, between Agalega and Farquhar
and also in the Mozambique
Channel between 8S and 19S.
Satellite imagery shows a bad defined
and weak clockwise
circulation 1008 hPa centered
near 15.6S/43.4E.
On tuesday, low level inflow is expected to improve along african
coastline
equatorward within a favorable upper level conditions
and some available NWP models forecast a cyclogenesis in this area
after tuesday.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
For the next 36 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected,
but potential becomes beyond poor to fair
in the Mozambique Channel
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-7 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 071106
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
East of 65E, ITCZ is weak and scattered within a near equatorial
trough.
West of 60E, it is fed by a poor transequatorial monsoon flow
extending down to 15S in the Mozambique Channel. Convective
activity is moderate to strong but very fluctuating within a very
weak low level clockwise circulation (estimated at about 1008 hPa).
It is ill-defined and approximately centred near 16S/42E (ASCAT
07/0701Z).
From Tuesday, European NWP models forecast a slow deepening for
this low due to low level inflow that is expected to improve along
African coastline equatorward and favorable upper level conditions
under a high-tropospheric ridge.
There is no other suspect area on the basin.
For the next 24 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected.
Beyond potential becomes fair in the Mozambique Channel.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-8 21:01 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 081159
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/08 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
East of 50E, ITCZ is axed along 5S with a weak and scattered
associated convective activity.
West of 50E and over the northern channel, it is located between
10S and 15S. Fed by a transequatorial monsoon flow present between
the african coastlines and 45E, thunderstorm activity is locally
strong over the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte (64 mm during the
last 24h at Grande Comoros International Airport at 06Z).
Satellite imagery suggest that a weak and ill-defined LLCC is
located south of ITCZ and close to the Mozambican coast. It is
centred at 10Z near 16S/41E with a MSLP at 1008 hPa and weak winds
in the 5/15 kt range. 24h variation of surface pressure at nearby
stations indicate some slow falling for the Mozambique stations, no
change at Juan de Nova and rising for the Comoros archipelago and
northwestern coast of Madagascar.
Within the next three days, this system should gradually move on a
southwestwards or westsouthwestwards track and stay close to the
Mozambique coast. It could make landfall thursday night or friday
near Quelimane. As the system is expected to remain close to land,
potential for significant intensification appear limited. However
as other environmental conditions are good (SST in the 29C range -
good upper level divergence and weak windshear under the upper
level ridge), it is too soon to state that a cyclogenesis is
unlikely in the sector ...
For the next 24 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected.
Beyond potential is dowgraded to poor in the Mozambique Channel.
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