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[回顾分析] BOM对2010-2011年澳洲区热带气旋季的初步报告

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发表于 2011-3-3 12:24 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Severe Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Western Australian Regional Office
A tropical low formed over the Top End near Katherine on 13 February, then intensified as it drifted northwest towards Darwin during 14 and 15 February. The low moved into the Beagle Gulf early on 16 February and intensified further to be named Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 8 am WST (9:30 am CST) when centred near Darwin Harbour. TC Carlos remained a category 1 system as it moved very slowly southeastwards over Darwin and surrounding rural suburbs during 16 February, before being downgraded to a tropical low at 5 am WST (6:30 am CST) on 17 February, near Batchelor. Ex-TC Carlos then tracked southwards over the western Top End to be near the WA/NT border on 19 February. Very heavy rainfall associated with TC Carlos broke many rainfall records in the region, including Darwin's wettest day with 367.6 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am on 16 February, Darwin's wettest three days with 684.8 mm from 15 to 17 February, Darwin's wettest seven days with 847.4 mm between the 13th and 19th, as well as recording its wettest month on record (for any month) with 1110.2mm. The heavy rain had a major impact on Darwin and surrounding areas, causing widespread flooding of low lying areas, inundating many houses and damaging roads and properties. Flooding of coastal suburbs was exacerbated by some of the largest astronomical tides of the year.


Squally winds with gusts reaching 98 km/h lashed the Darwin area during the night of the 15th and again on the 16th, felling many hundreds of trees, cutting roads, powerlines and damaging properties. Most Government departments, schools and businesses were closed for two days during the event. Darwin International Airport was also closed during the worst weather conditions on 16 February. Ex-TC Carlos caused widespread flooding elsewhere in the Darwin-Daly District, including a major flood in the Daly River, inundating the community of Nauiyu about 150 km south of Darwin. 300 people were evacuated to the nearby town of Batchelor.


Ex-TC Carlos then tracked across the northern Kimberley before moving offshore near Broome early on 21 February. Once offshore the system rapidly regained cyclone intensity, and was re-classified as a category 1 cyclone at 8 am WST on 21 February. Thereafter, TC Carlos tracked to the southwest, increasing to a category 2 cyclone at 4 am WST on 22 February before again crossing the coast near Karratha around midday WST on 22 February. TC Carlos continued to track close to the Pilbara coast, briefly weakening to category 1 system while over land, then re-intensifying to a category 2 cyclone as it again moved offshore during the evening of 22 February. TC Carlos remained as a category 2 system as it continued to track close to the coast, passing over North West Cape, just to the south of Exmouth during the morning of 23 February. TC Carlos then continued to move towards the southwest away from the WA coast. Carlos briefly reached severe tropical cyclone intensity (category 3) for a period during the early hours of 24 February, then gradually weakened as it moved into an unfavourable environment. Carlos was downgraded to a tropical low at 5 am WST on 25 February over open water, well off the Australian mainland. Tropical Cyclone Advices were issued for a large swathe of the northwest Australian coast line following the track of Carlos, extending from Croker Island in the Northern Territory through to Carnarvon in Western Australia. The highest wind gust recorded was139 km/hr offshore from the west Pilbara coast at 10 pm WST on 22 February.


Carlos generated heavy rainfall across northwest Australia, with many rainfall records broken in the western Top End when the cyclone was affecting the Northern Territory. In Western Australia, the highest 24 hour totals were 288 mm at a site offshore from the Pilbara coast on 23 February; 283 mm at Barrow Island on 23 February; and 110 mm at Exmouth on 24 February. During the afternoon of 21 February, while Carlos was off the coast near Port Hedland, a tornado associated with severe thunderstorms in one of the outer rain bands caused extensive damage in the central business district of Karratha. ***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.***


Carlos was the first tropical cyclone of 2010/11 season in the Northern Region and the sixth cyclone in the Western Region. In addition, Carlos was the fourth cyclone off the northwest coast of Western Australia and the first to make land fall on the northwest coast of Western Australia.

Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information

Maximum Category: 3
Maximum sustained wind speed: 120 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 170 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 969 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-3 12:26 | 显示全部楼层
Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
30 January - 3 February 2011

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi began developing as a tropical low northwest of Fiji on 29th January and started tracking on a general westward track. The system quickly intensified to a cyclone category to the north of Vanuatu and was named Yasi at 10pm on the 30th by Fiji Meteorological Service. Yasi maintained a westward track and rapidly intensified to a Category 2 by 10am on 31st January and then further to a Category 3 by 4pm on the same day.

Yasi maintained Category 3 intensity for the next 24 hours before being upgraded to a Category 4 at 7pm on 1st February. During this time, Yasi started to take a more west-southwestward movement and began to accelerate towards the tropical Queensland coast.

Yasi showed signs of further intensification and at 4am on 2nd February and was upgraded to a marginal Category 5 system. Yasi maintained this intensity and its west-southwest movement, making landfall on the southern tropical coast near Mission Beach between midnight and 1am early on Thursday 3rd February. Being such a strong and large system, Yasi maintained a strong core with damaging winds and heavy rain, tracking westwards across northern Queensland and finally weakened to a tropical low near Mount Isa around 10pm on 3rd February.

Yasi is one of the most powerful cyclones to have affected Queensland since records commenced. Previous cyclones of a comparable measured intensity include the 1899 cyclone Mahina in Princess Charlotte Bay, and the two cyclones of 1918 at Mackay (January) and Innisfail (March).

Wind Damage
At the time of writing there are no verified observations of the maximum wind gusts near the cyclone centre. However a barograph at the Tully Sugar Mill recorded a minimum pressure of 929 hPa as the eye passed over suggesting wind gusts of about 285 km/h were possible. This is supported by measurements (subject to verification) from instrumentation operated by the Queensland Government (Department of Environment and Resource Management) at Clump Point (near Mission Beach) which recorded a minimum pressure of 930hPa. Significant wind damage was reported between Innisfail and Townsville where the destructive core of the cyclone crossed the coast. Tully and Cardwell suffered major damage to structures and vegetation with the eye of the cyclone passing over Dunk Island and Tully around midnight on 2nd February.

The largest rainfall totals were near and to the south of the cyclone and were generally in the order of 200-300mm in the 24 hours to 9am Thursday. These rainfall totals were experienced in the area between Cairns and Ayr, causing some flooding. The highest totals were; South Mission Beach 471mm, Hawkins Creek 464mm, Zattas 407mm, Bulgun Creek 373mm along the Tully and Herbert River catchments.

Storm Tides
A 5 metre tidal surge was observed at the Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) storm tide gauge at Cardwell, which is 2.3 metres above Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT). The anomaly occurred at about 1.30am on a falling tide, averting more serious inundation. Some significant, yet far less substantial sea inundation occurred on the late morning high tide on 3rd February between the Cairns Northern Beaches and Alva Beach, with peak levels measured at DERM's Townsville tide gauge close to the expected 0.6m above HAT causing inundation of parts of the city.

***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis***

This was the fourth tropical cyclone in the Queensland area of responsibility during the 2010/11 season.

* All times mentioned is Australia Eastern Standard Time (EST)

Coastal Crossing Details
Crossing time:12 am - 1am EST, 3 Feb 2011Crossing location:Near Mission Beach, 138km S of CairnsCategory when crossing the coast:5Extreme Values During Cyclone Event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information

Maximum Category:5
Maximum sustained wind speed:205 km/hr (estimated)
Maximum wind gust:285 km/hr (estimated)
Lowest central pressure:929 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-3 12:28 | 显示全部楼层
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Western Australian Regional Office
A tropical low formed over land near the border of the Kimberley and the Top End on 21 January. The low moved over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on 22 and 23 January before tracking to the west southwest across the north Kimberley on 24 January. The low moved over open waters to the north of Broome late on 25 January and was named Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 2am WST 26 January. Bianca continued to move towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast and intensified into a severe category 3 cyclone early on 27 January to the north of Karratha. The cyclone tracked to the north then to the west of Exmouth and reached category 4 intensity on 28 January, well to the west of Carnarvon. Bianca then tracked to the south and began to weaken. On 29 January the cyclone had weakened to category 3 intensity and started moving to the southeast towards the southwest of Western Australia. The system weakened further late on 29 January and early on 30 January and was below cyclone intensity at 8am WST 30 January, about 375 kilometres west northwest of Perth.


Cyclone advices were issued for coastal parts of the west Kimberley, Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne and later for coastal parts between Jurien Bay and Albany.


The passage of Bianca resulted in higher than normal tides from the Pilbara coast through to the coastal parts of the southwest. In general, tides were 1.0m to 1.25m above the predicted level along the Pilbara coast (close to the highest astronomical tide) and 0.5m to 0.8m above along the west coast (higher than the highest astronomical tide).


Bedout Island recorded a mean wind speed of 106 kilometres per hour and a wind gust of 118 kilometres per hour about 3am WST 26 January.


Heavy rainfall occurred through the Kimberley and coastal parts of the Pilbara as the system tracked across these areas. The highest 24 hour total was 191mm at Mardie on 28 January. ***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.***


Bianca was the fourth Tropical Cyclone of the 2010/11 season in the Western region and the second Tropical Cyclone off the Northwest coast of Western Australia.




Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 4
Maximum sustained wind speed: 165 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 230 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 945 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-3 12:29 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Vince
Western Australian Regional Office
On 10 January, a tropical low formed in the eastern Indian Ocean. The low tracked westwards and gradually developed. Early on 12 January the system recurved to the east and was named Vince at 0800 WST 12 January. Vince then moved towards the east southeast and weakened below cyclone intensity at 1100 WST 14 January over open water well away from the WA mainland. ***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.***


Vince was the first tropical cyclone to occur over the northwest Australian region during the 2010/11 season but was the third tropical cyclone in the Western region.




Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 1
Maximum sustained wind speed: 75 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 100 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 986 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-3 12:30 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Tasha
Queensland Regional Office
Tropical Cyclone Tasha was initially analysed as a tropical low in the northern Coral Sea, southeast of Papua New Guinea on the 20th December. The low maintained a southwesterly track towards the north Queensland coast over the forthcoming days. The low eventually moved into a very favourable environment for development on the 24th December and subsequently intensified to reach tropical cyclone intensity during the early hours of Christmas Day.


Tropical Cyclone Tasha remained as a category 1 system for only a matter of hours prior to its landfall along the North Tropical Coast near Gordonvale. Widespread rainfall in the order of 150-250mm was experienced on the southern side of the system as it moved onto the coast.


***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis***


Tasha was the first tropical cyclone in the Queensland area of responsibility during the 2010/11 season.




Coastal Crossing Details
Crossing time: 5am EST Saturday 25 December 2010
Crossing location: Gordonvale
  20km SSE of Cairns
Category when crossing the coast: 1


Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 1
Maximum sustained wind speed: 70 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 100 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 993 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-3 12:32 | 显示全部楼层
Severe Tropical Cyclone Abele
Western Australian Regional Office
A tropical low formed in the central Indian Ocean on 29 November and drifted slowly to the south. It reached tropical cyclone intensity on 1 December and was named Abele while still in the area of responsibility of La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Centre. Abele was a small system that rapidly intensified into a category 3 cyclone late on 2 December. Abele moved into the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre’s area of responsibility on 3 December. By this time it was a category 2 cyclone having already begun rapid weakening due to cold sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear. Abele weakened below cyclone intensity early on 4 December over open water.


Throughout its life Abele posed no threat to the Cocos Islands or communities on the Western Australian mainland. ***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis***


Abele was the second tropical cyclone of the 2010/11 season in the Western region.




Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 3
Maximum sustained wind speed: 130 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 185 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 973 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-3 12:33 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Western Australian Regional Office
A tropical low formed to the southwest of Indonesia on 28 October and drifted slowly west before recurving to the southeast and reaching cyclone intensity on 31 October. The system was named Anggrek by the Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. Anggrek developed slowly and reached category two intensity on 1 November before weakening below cyclone intensity early on 4 November.


Anggrek passed to the east and then to the south of Cocos Island with the closest approach being about 140 km to the east southeast of the island during the afternoon of 2 November. Moderate rainfall occurred over Cocos Island during the passage of Anggrek with the maximum 24 hour rainfall being 56mm on 1 November. No damage was reported. ***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.***


Anggrek was the first Tropical Cyclone of the 2010/11 season in Western Australia.




Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 2
Maximum sustained wind speed: 95 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 130 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 986 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-24 11:48 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Errol
Western Australian Regional Office

A tropical low formed over the Timor Sea on 12 April then drifted to the south, towards the Kimberley coast. The low intensified overnight on 13 April, and by the morning of 14 April was a strong, albeit very small system which was assessed to be just below tropical cyclone intensity. The low intensified further the following night to be named Tropical Cyclone Errol at 8 am WST on 15 April when located approximately 150 km off the northern Kimberley coast. Given the proximity to the coast and some uncertainty in the short-term forecast movement, a Flash Warning was issued for Kimberley coastal and island communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.


After remaining slow-moving for most of 15 April, TC Errol eventually began to track to the northwest, away from the West Australian coast. TC Errol increased to Category 2 intensity on 16 April and maintained that strength until it moved out of the Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Area of Responsibility on 17 April. TC Errol was assessed by the Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre to have weakened to a Category 1 cyclone as it approached the southern coast of West Timor, then below tropical cyclone intensity by 8 am WST 18 April.


Tropical Cyclone Advices were issued for the northern Kimberley coast between Kuri Bay to Kalumburu from 9:30am WST 15 April until 9am WST 16 April.


Errol generated heavy rainfall over the far northern Kimberley during 14 April, with 184 mm recorded at Faraway Bay in the 24 hours to 9 am WST on 15 April.


***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.***


Errol was the second tropical cyclone of 2010/11 season in the Northern Region and the seventh cyclone in the Western Region. In addition, Errol was the fifth cyclone off the northwest coast of Western Australia.




Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 2
Maximum sustained wind speed: 105 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 145 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 986 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-24 11:55 | 显示全部楼层
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
14 - 18 January 2011
Summary
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia initially developed over the northern Coral Sea approximately 750 kilometres northeast of Cairns on the 14th January 2011. Zelia began to move in a southeasterly direction under the influence of a mid level ridge situated across the western Coral Sea. Zelia rapidly intensified to a category 3 system on the 15th January and then maintained this strength while also accelerating towards the west of New Caledonia.

Severe Tropical Cyclone began weakening on the 17th January as the system approached Norfolk Island due to a combination of cooler sea surface temperatures and increased wind shear. Finally it was downgraded to a low pressure system at 4am on the 18th January.

***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis***

Zelia was the second tropical cyclone in the Queensland area of responsibility during the 2010/11 season.

Extreme Values During Cyclone Event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information

Maximum Category:3Maximum sustained wind speed:155 km/hrMaximum wind gust:220 km/hrLowest central pressure:957 hPa
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-24 11:59 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Anthony
22 - 31 January 2011
Summary
Tropical Cyclone Anthony was initially analysed as a tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea, northeast of Cairns on the 22nd January 2011. The low developed an easterly track away from the Queensland coast prior to forming into a tropical cyclone during the morning of the 23rd January. Anthony remained as a category 1 system for a couple of days prior to moving into an area of increased wind shear on the 25th of January.

Once Anthony weakened below tropical cyclone strength, the low level circulation centre then developed a westerly track back towards the Queensland coast. Ex-TC Anthony once again moved into a favourable environment and subsequently re-intensified to a Category 1 tropical cyclone on 28th January.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony began to adopt a southwesterly track on the 29th January towards the central Queensland coast. It persisted with this movement and intensified to a marginal Category 2 system in the last 6 hours before making landfall near Bowen just before 10pm on 30th January.

***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis***

Anthony was the third tropical cyclone in the Queensland area of responsibility during the 2010/11 season.

Coastal Crossing Details
Crossing time:10pm EST Sunday 30 January 2011Crossing location:Bowen, 165km SE of TownsvilleCategory when crossing the coast:2Extreme Values During Cyclone Event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information

Maximum Category:2
Maximum sustained wind speed:100 km/hr
Maximum wind gust:140 km/hr
Lowest central pressure:984 hPa
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