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[南半球] 北澳15S Carlos-抢先升格

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 12:11 | 显示全部楼层
将在海岸附近活动,出海加强,登陆减弱。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 13:19 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 17 February 2011

valid until the end of Sunday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Low [Ex-TC Carlos] [997 hPa] located near 13.3S,131.4E at 9:30am CST on
17 February. The low is moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour and may
re-develop into a cyclone by Saturday as it moves into the Joseph Bonaparte
Gulf.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 15:26 | 显示全部楼层
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17  
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Thursday 17 February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia, including Kununurra and
Wyndham.

At 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was estimated to be over
land
100 kilometres south of Darwin and 175 kilometres northeast of Port Keats and
moving southwest at 5 kilometres per hour further inland.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to continue moving southwest and may move
into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early on Saturday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop between Daly River Mouth in the NT and Kulumburu in WA, if the
system moves over water on Saturday.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between the NT/WA Border and Kalumburu should listen for
the next advice.



Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 130.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Thursday 17 February [9:30 pm WST
Thursday 17 February].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
可能再度出海,下午数值预测将沿西澳洲海岸线移动。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 15:33 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1956 UTC 16/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 131.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [144 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 13.2S 131.2E:     045 [085]:  035  [065]:  995
+24: 17/1800: 13.4S 130.7E:     075 [140]:  035  [065]:  995
+36: 18/0600: 13.8S 130.0E:     110 [200]:  035  [065]:  996
+48: 18/1800: 14.4S 129.4E:     140 [260]:  040  [075]:  994
+60: 19/0600: 15.0S 128.7E:     190 [350]:  045  [085]:  987
+72: 19/1800: 15.7S 127.7E:     235 [435]:  035  [065]:  996
REMARKS:
Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.45 wrap resulting in FT=2.5.
System over land but holding CI at 3.0 for now. Radar indicates well-defined
spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based on radar
animation and surface observations.  
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Enhanced deep convection in
the northeastern semicircle is wrapping into southern sectors. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow movement during the next
12-24 hours, followed by south to southwest movement as the mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 15:34 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0730 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 130.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/1800: 13.6S 130.4E:     050 [095]:  030  [055]:  998
+24: 18/0600: 14.0S 130.0E:     080 [150]:  030  [055]:  995
+36: 18/1800: 14.2S 129.6E:     110 [210]:  030  [055]:  998
+48: 19/0600: 14.6S 128.9E:     145 [270]:  035  [065]:  990
+60: 19/1800: 15.1S 128.1E:     190 [355]:  035  [065]:  996
+72: 20/0600: 15.8S 126.8E:     240 [445]:  030  [055]:  995
REMARKS:
System over land. Structure weakening on radar and satellite imagery. Position
fair, based on radar animation and surface observations.  

There is still a well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.

The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as
the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east.  This track
may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early on
Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 15:35 | 显示全部楼层
雷达和云图观测,正减弱,系统仍位于陆地。
发表于 2011-2-17 16:25 | 显示全部楼层
第一个FW
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 21:18 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1312 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [218 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0000: 13.9S 130.2E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  997
+24: 18/1200: 14.3S 129.8E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]:  995
+36: 19/0000: 14.5S 129.2E:     120 [220]:  035  [065]:  990
+48: 19/1200: 15.0S 128.4E:     150 [280]:  035  [065]:  990
+60: 20/0000: 15.5S 127.3E:     200 [365]:  030  [055]:  998
+72: 20/1200: 16.5S 125.9E:     245 [455]:  025  [045]:  995
REMARKS:
System over land. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface
observations.  

There is still a well-developed circulation up to to 500hPa. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.

The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as
the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east.  This track
may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early on
Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-17 21:18 | 显示全部楼层
快出海了,出海预测会加强。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-2-18 10:54 | 显示全部楼层
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1947 UTC 17/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0600: 14.1S 130.3E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  996
+24: 18/1800: 14.3S 130.1E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]:  996
+36: 19/0600: 14.4S 129.5E:     120 [220]:  035  [065]:  994
+48: 19/1800: 14.6S 128.6E:     150 [280]:  035  [065]:  994
+60: 20/0600: 15.1S 127.1E:     200 [365]:  035  [065]:  995
+72: 20/1800: 15.7S 125.1E:     245 [455]:  030  [055]:  998
REMARKS:
System over land. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface
observations.  
There is still a well-developed circulation up to to 500hPa. Strongly divergent
200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good
outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development
potential if the system were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as
the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east.  This track
may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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