南太平洋强烈旋风17S.Atu

北落师门

GALE WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 18/0117 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 169.0E AT 180000
UTC. POSITION FAIR.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 30 TO 90 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

北落师门

FMS发GW和advisory了，为命名作准备。

北落师门

Advisory Number 2 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological
Service, Port Vila at 12:53pm VUT Friday 18 February 2011.

At 11:00am local time today, a tropical low (1000 hPa) was located near
14.7S 168.5E, square letter H, number 4 (H, 4) of the Vanuatu tropical
cyclone tracking map. This is about 60 KM northeast of Maewo.  
The system is moving west at 18 KM/HR. The potential for the system
to become a tropcial cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours as well
as move towards the Vanuatu group is moderate to high.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 18 Feb)           15.0S, 168.4E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 18 Feb)          15.4S, 168.3E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 19 Feb)           15.8S, 168.2E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 19 Feb)          16.1S, 168.1E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 19 Feb)          16.7S, 168.1E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 20 Feb)          17.2S, 168.2E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfall is expected over the northern and central islands of Vanuatu,
possible flooding over low lying areas and areas close to river banks.
Heavy rainfall will spread to other parts of the group from tonight
or early tomorrow. A marine strong wind warning is current for the channel
between Efate and Erromango and the southern waters of Vanuatu as seas are
rough with moderate swells. Seas will become very rough with heavy swells
from tomorrow. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises that
there is no Alert at present, but people should remain cautious and must
be ready to take precautionary measures should the need arise.      

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next advice at
6:00pm today or ealier should the situation changes. Because of the
large uncertainty of the forecast track at this stage, people
throughout Vanuatu should listen to all Radio Outlets to get
the latest information on the system. This Bulletin and the Forecast
Track Map is available on the VMS's website www.meteo.gov.vu

北落师门

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 18/0002 UTC 2011 UTC.

*****CORRECTION TO DEPRESSION POSITION*****

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [1002 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.9S 169.1E AT
172100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

北落师门

TXPS41 PHFO 180003 CCA
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0002 UTC FRI FEB 18 2011

A. Tropical disturbance 90P.

B. 17/2232Z.

C. 14.4°S.

D. 169.1°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6HRS.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Curved band .45 wrap yields DT of 2.5. MET is 2.0 for normal development. PT is 2.0. FT is 2.0 based on met.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$


Foster.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOAA CPHC分析

北落师门

TXPS41 PHFO 180520
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0520 UTC FRI FEB 18 2011

A. Tropical depression 11F.

B. 18/0432Z.

C. 14.9°S.

D. 169.0°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

G. Vis/eir.

H. Remarks: Curved band pattern with .5 wrap on log-10 spiral yields DT of 2.5. PT is 2.0. MET is 2.0. FT based on MET and PT.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$


Birchard.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

北落师门

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 18/0428 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 1000 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 169.0E
AT 180000 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC FROM SOUTHERN QUADRANT BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHRERE DUE TO
MODERATE SHEAR. CONVECTION INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHWEST BY EASTERLY
DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SHEAR TO NORTH
AND SOUTH OF SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND RECEDE TO THE WEST AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH. DVORAK
ASSESMENT BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=1.5 PT=1.5
FT BASED ON DT, THUS T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 15.5S 169.0W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 16.3S 169.2W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 16.8S 169.5E MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 17.3S 169.8W MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED AT
AROUND 180800 UTC OR EARLIER.

北落师门

Advisory Number 3 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological
Service, Port Vila at 6:16pm VUT Friday 18 February 2011.

At 5:00pm local time today, a tropical low (1000 hPa) was located near
15.0S 168.4E, square letter H, number 4 (H, 4) of the Vanuatu tropical
cyclone tracking map. This is about 80 KM north northeast of Pentecost.  
The system is moving south southwest at 6 KM/HR. The potential for the system
to become a tropcial cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours as well
as move towards the Vanuatu group is moderate to high.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 18 Feb)          15.3S, 168.7E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 19 Feb)           16.0S, 168.9E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 19 Feb)          16.6S, 169.1E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 19 Feb)           17.1S, 169.2E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 20 Feb)           17.7S, 169.6E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 20 Feb)           18.2S, 170.3E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfall is expected over the northern and central islands of Vanuatu,
possible flooding over low lying areas and areas close to river banks. Heavy
rainfall will spread to other parts of the group from tonight or early tomorrow.
A marine strong wind warning is current for the southern waters of Vanuatu as
seas are rough with moderate swells. Seas will become very rough with heavy
swells from tomorrow. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO)advises
that there is no Alert at present, but people should remain cautious and must
be ready to take precautionary measures should the need arise.      

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next advice at 11:00pm
tonight or ealier should the situation changes. Because of the large
uncertainty of the forecast track at this stage, people throughout
Vanuatu should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest information
on the system. This Bulletin and the Forecast Track Map is available on
the VMS's website www.meteo.gov.vu

北落师门

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 18/0806 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 999 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 169.2E
AT 180600 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.  

ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS STRUGGLING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE PAST 6
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. SYSTEM SLIGHTLY STEERED SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK SHEAR TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM AND STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRESS TO THE WEST AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH. DVORAK ASSESMENT BASED
ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.0 PT=2.0  FT BASED ON DT,
THUS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEST MOVEMENT BEFORE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 15.9S 169.5W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 16.8S 169.7W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 17.2S 170.1E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 17.8S 170.8W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED AT
AROUND 181400 UTC OR EARLIER.

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美军也已经发出TCFA