HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0200UTC 13 JANUARY 2011
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 90 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal seven south (14.7S)
longitude one hundred and forty nine decimal nine east (149.9E)
Recent movement : northwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 0000 UTC 14
January.
Very rough seas developing.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 13 January: Within 120 nautical miles of 13.4 south 151.6 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 14 January: Within 150 nautical miles of 13.1 south 152.6 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Perth 212.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 13 January 2011.
Potential cyclones:
The monsoon trough is extending across northern Queensland and the Coral Sea. A
developing tropical low is located northwest of Willis Island, which may develop
into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours. This system is expected
to stay well off the Queensland coast and eventually move eastward out of the
Region.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High
Sunday: Low
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1303 UTC 15/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 153.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [125 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0000: 17.0S 156.5E: 085 [155]: 075 [140]: 968
+24: 16/1200: 20.1S 160.4E: 110 [205]: 070 [130]: 970
+36: 17/0000: 24.6S 163.8E: 145 [270]: 075 [140]: 964
+48: 17/1200: 29.6S 166.2E: 180 [335]: 045 [085]: 984
+60: 18/0000: 35.3S 167.7E: 220 [405]: 035 [065]: 989
+72: 18/1200: 38.8S 170.3E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 985
REMARKS:
Embedded centre pattern with Black surround, giving a DT of 5.0. MT and PT both
suggest 4.5. FT based on PT and supporting ship observations.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified during Saturday evening
while in a favourable environment with weak wind shear and high sea surface
temperatures. Recent IR satellite imagery has indicated that a ragged eye
pattern may be developing.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC
CAT3了。
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0102 UTC 16/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 156.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [128 deg]
Speed of Movement: 23 knots [43 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 20.4S 160.3E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 965
+24: 17/0000: 24.6S 163.4E: 105 [195]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 17/1200: 28.5S 166.3E: 130 [240]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 18/0000: 32.7S 169.0E: 160 [295]: 035 [065]: 989
+60: 18/1200: 36.7S 172.1E: 200 [370]: 035 [065]: 987
+72: 19/0000: 40.7S 175.2E: 245 [455]: 035 [065]: 985
REMARKS:
Eye pattern with LG surround and OW centre, giving DT of 5.0. MT 4.5 and PT 5.0.
FT based on DT.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified during late Saturday and
into Sunday morning while moving in a favourable environment with high sea
surface temperatures and weak wind shear. Zelia has also begun to increase in
speed this morning with the development of an upper trough across the western
Coral Sea, allowing northwesterly mid level steering to develop.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC
80KT了，BOM预测以CAT1登陆北岛。
IP卡
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-1-13 12:24
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
千斤顶
显身卡
楼主
发表于 2011-1-15 00:29
组图打开中，请稍候......
