报告人:qwer
所属团队:21CMA
扰动编号:96E
编号时间:19 SEP 0229Z 2010
初始强度:25KT
扰动定位:18.0N--107.5W
存在区域:墨西哥西部近海
系统现状报告
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构一般;多频微波结构一般;云图螺旋性明顯
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态較好;辐散状态中等;系统所处垂直风切中等;系统所处海表温度26-27℃
3、系统现状其他分析: 墨西哥灣颶風KARL的殘留雲系在墨西哥高原上發展后進入到東太平洋
数值预报:
EC数值预报发展机会一般
个人评估:無
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备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
4、世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
5、世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. |