|
JTWC #7
WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.2N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.6N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 128.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TS 12W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 160442Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS DEPICT CONVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH,
THEREFORE, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
INTERACTION WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN JAPAN BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE 16/00Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS (AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY) SHOWS EVIDENCE THAT THE
RIDGE IS BUILDING RAPIDLY INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, MODEL
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE ON INITIATING A TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN,
WEAKEN AND RE-EMERGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL
OVER MAINLAND CHINA NEAR TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z.//
NNNN |
组图打开中,请稍候......
|