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发表于 2010-2-8 10:55
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WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070721Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 162.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 162.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.1S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.5S 157.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.7S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.4S 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.4S 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 161.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT 071526Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, IN
CONCERT WITH A 071557Z SSMIS IMAGE, SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM (PERHAPS CAUSING ERRONEOUSLY LOW DVORAK ESTIMATES), WHICH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, TC 14P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED EAST OF 120W, WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
AROUND TAU 72, TC 14P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS IT
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BEYOND THE EXTENDED TAU'S, THE PASSING TROUGH MAY WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLE TC 14P TO TURN POLEWARD. THE EARLY MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AND A BIT SPREAD OUT, THOUGH IT HAS CONSISTENTLY
POINTED TO THE WESTWARD TURN OVER THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 070730). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.//
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