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[南半球] 14P-PAT

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发表于 2010-2-7 11:07 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
扰动编号:97P
编号时间:07 FEB 2010 0252Z
初始强度:25kts.1004mb
定位:8.8S.165W
存在区域:南太平洋
EC数值运算结果:發展機會較高
发展记录:
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-2-7 11:39 | 显示全部楼层
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2S 166.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061621Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CURVED
CONVECTION INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, PGTW AND KNES
HAVE RECENTLY SUBMITTED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.0. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. FINALLY, THE
ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIEN OSCILLATION WILL BE IN THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHICH MAY HELP TO INDUCE TC GENESIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-2-7 15:37 | 显示全部楼层
WTPS21 PGTW 070730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7S 165.2W TO 13.1S 159.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070522Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 164.5W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
164.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 164.5W, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070548Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW CURVED CONVECTION INTO A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEVELOPED
TROUGH. CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR THE
LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL ORGAN-
IZATION OF THE LLCC, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080730Z.//
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-2-8 10:55 | 显示全部楼层
WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070721Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 162.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 162.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 11.9S 159.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 13.1S 158.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 14.5S 157.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 15.7S 157.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 18.0S 158.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 19.4S 160.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.4S 163.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 161.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT 071526Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, IN
CONCERT WITH A 071557Z SSMIS IMAGE, SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM (PERHAPS CAUSING ERRONEOUSLY LOW DVORAK ESTIMATES), WHICH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, TC 14P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED EAST OF 120W, WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
AROUND TAU 72, TC 14P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS IT
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BEYOND THE EXTENDED TAU'S, THE PASSING TROUGH MAY WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLE TC 14P TO TURN POLEWARD. THE EARLY MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AND A BIT SPREAD OUT, THOUGH IT HAS CONSISTENTLY
POINTED TO THE WESTWARD TURN OVER THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 070730). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-2-11 00:04 | 显示全部楼层
20100210.1240.trmm.color.14P.PAT.105kts.944mb.18.6S.159.8W.62pc.jpg
14P.PAT.105kts.944mb.18.6S.159.8W

子彈形TC。。
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-2-12 12:28 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning #09 Final Warning
Issued at 11/2100Z
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