95S - 挂

sylar

扰动编号：95S
编号时间： 23 DEC 2009 1200Z
初始强度：15kts-1010mb
定位：13.2S-79.2E
存在区域：南印度洋
EC数值运算结果：發展機會較低
发展记录：
云图附件：

dnt02

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
80.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. DESPITE BEING LOCATED LESS THAN 1200 NM
TO THE EAST OF A 50 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC 05S), THERE IS NO
INDICATION THAT IT IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTING CONSOLIDATION AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS IMPROVED,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MORE RECENT WEAKENING OF CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240004Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH
SHOW LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD LINES SPIRALING TOWARDS A TIGHTENING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CIRRUS PATTERN ALOFT SUGGESTS THE
DISTURBANCE SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING.
VENTING IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
BY AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

sylar

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
81.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.