95P－挂

sylar

95PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-131S-1609E.100pc.jpg

[ 本帖最后由 sylar 于 2009-2-4 18:41 编辑 ]

sylar

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
161.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 162.5E, APPROXIMATLEY 390 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER AN AREA OF
TIGHT LOW LEVEL TROUGHING EVIDENT IN A 040237Z AMSU-B PASS. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT FAVORABLE
NORTHWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISORGANIZED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HIGHER THAN OPTIMAL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

sylar

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
162.5E, APPROXIMATLEY 390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.