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[南半球] 10S--DOMINIC

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发表于 2009-1-24 21:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
90P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.17.7S.120.2E.100pc.jp

[ 本帖最后由 sylar 于 2009-1-26 14:16 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-25 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
120.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND A DEVELOPING POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL OFF-SHORE OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA. A RECENT WEATHER RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP
FROM PORT HEDLAND INDICATES A WELL FORMED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-25 10:37 | 显示全部楼层
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal four south (18.4S)
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal nine east (118.9E)
Recent movement : west at 13 knots
Maximum winds   : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST

Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0000 UTC 26
January.
From 1800 UTC 25 January winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of
centre, with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 25 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.9 south 116.9 east
                        Central pressure 998 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots.
At 0000 UTC 26 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 19.6 south 115.4 east
                        Central pressure 987 hPa.
                        Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 25 January 2009.

WEATHER PERTH
 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-25 13:00 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
Issued at 25/0330Z
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-25 22:36 | 显示全部楼层
#1
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-26 14:18 | 显示全部楼层

35kts.996mb.20.3S.115.5E

澳洲命名為DOMINIC

TPXS11 PGTW 260610

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC)

B. 26/0530Z

C. 20.2S

D. 115.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. BANDING OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION IS ALMOST ENTIRELY GONE EXCEPT LONG BAND JUST OFF THE
COAST TO EAST EQUATORWARD SIDE.  CNVCTN WRAP OF .50 GIVES 2.5
DT.  MET AGREES.  PT 3.0 BUT LOOKS BETTER IN VIS IMAGERY.  
DAMPIER RADAR LOOP SHOWS LLCC IN AREA OF CURRENT POSIT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/1915Z  19.0S  116.3E  TRMM
   26/2214Z  19.2S  116.1E  SSMI


   OATES
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