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楼主: sylar
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[南半球] 05S--BILLY MAX:105KTS

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-2 22:56 | 显示全部楼层
LLCC建在,850mb深度存在

另一個Hondo?

二個重新發展的不利條件就是沒有副高為它帶來良好的輻散,干空氣
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-3 12:37 | 显示全部楼层
IDW10900
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Saturday the 3rd of January 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A tropical low [Ex-Tropical Cyclone Billy] was located at 11am WDT near 13S 92E
moving west, but is expected to remain below tropical cyclone intensity.

There are no other significant tropical lows evident and the likelihood of a
tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Sunday      : Low
Monday      : Low
Tuesday     : Low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of        **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.                   **
** LOW = 10% or less  MODERATE = 20-40%   HIGH = 50% or more               **

======================================
03/0230 UTC   12.8S     91.7E       T1.0/1.0         05S -- Southeast Indian
 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-7 17:28 | 显示全部楼层
95S己與05S”合體”了

05S.BILLY.20kts.1007mb.15.5S.71.1E.100pc.jpg
97S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11.3S.127.1E.100pc.jpg

走了50多個E:y42

[ 本帖最后由 sylar 于 2009-1-7 17:29 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-8 12:34 | 显示全部楼层

25kts.1004mb.15.1S.66.6E

AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULA-
TION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1S 66.5E, APPROX-
IMATELY 725 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANTIMATED WATER
VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EVIDENT IN A PARTIAL 072126Z AMSR-E PASS. THE LLCC LIES NORTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS ALSO MOVING CLOSER TO THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A REDUCTION IN SHEAR VALUES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS BROAD AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

95S完全成為05S的一部分。看來又一經典即將出現,到目前為止97S->05S 己走了60E了:y43

[ 本帖最后由 sylar 于 2009-1-8 12:39 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-8 12:50 | 显示全部楼层
。。。。。。。
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