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[西太台风] 2013年6月西太TCC(热带云簇)追击帖

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发表于 2013-6-16 14:58 | 显示全部楼层
给楼上补个图...
HS1P-2013-06-16-14-00.png
发表于 2013-6-17 00:41 | 显示全部楼层
论坛卡得不得了,没法传图了
     
JMA 06Z就将91W定为TD了,对菲东和对南海的系统完全是两种态度
发表于 2013-6-17 09:42 | 显示全部楼层
JMA於凌晨3时对91W发出GW

更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2013-6-17 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
关岛以南的云团已被编号为93W~一个暴发户,在编号不到3小时内,被JTWC评级为Medium(当然怀疑是预报员草率了)
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162334Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER,
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
发表于 2013-6-17 16:55 | 显示全部楼层
关岛以南的云团已被编为93w,在编号3小时内即被评为Medium(不得不说这回JTWC有些草率- -)
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162334Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER,
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
PS:奇怪,中午发了一帖,竟然消失了...


更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2013-6-18 00:41 | 显示全部楼层
lmk915 发表于 2013-6-17 16:55
关岛以南的云团已被编为93w,在编号3小时内即被评为Medium(不得不说这回JTWC有些草率- -)
AN AREA OF CO ...

腾讯防水墙对热带气旋某些英文判断有误,两天来连续过滤3个帖子,已经反删除。

按道理,防水墙能记住网站管理员操作特征自我学习,如果继续频繁误删,我会考虑关闭防水墙。

造成的不便深表歉意。
发表于 2013-6-18 09:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dujuan 于 2013-6-18 09:32 编辑

4号台风「丽琵」生成
位于副高西侧,预料将北上
  
1304-00.png
  
MTSAT_RVI_201306172333.gif
发表于 2013-6-19 09:44 | 显示全部楼层
南海中部94W
   
201306191015-00.png
   
估计又是一个无名季风低压
发表于 2013-6-19 22:46 | 显示全部楼层
本站管理團隊近日相當繁忙,出外工作的有,忙學業的有,忙畢業的也有,貼子更新受到一定影響,各會員以及遊客請見諒

04W繼續受西太副高引導向偏北方向移動,晚上9時已經來到宮古島以南約90km,稍後看看實測如何

明天將進入東海海域并開始轉向,未來有可能登陸日本

南海季風槽繼續發威,短短一星期相繼生產出3個擾動99W,92W,94W

現時南海94W發展情況有別於早幾日的92W,當時西南季風偏向支援91W(04W),使92W受到的水汽供應受阻

菲東04W發展同時,外圍下沉氣流壓制了當時南海92W的環流發展

而現時在04W北上後,西南氣流正慢慢轉為支援94W,提供充足水汽來源,南半球極峰到位

加上華南地區上空存在一微弱高壓單體,其南側的東風,與南海的西南風結合,有利形成一氣旋

JMA目前為LPA,JTWC評級MEDIUM
发表于 2013-6-20 01:34 | 显示全部楼层
数值都在调强南海低压,不过,高层环流和风场看,摆个南高在南方,南海低压容易被剃平头。。。

当然,现在本来已经平头 {:soso_e144:}

而近岸则容易海岸抬升而突然爆发。
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