世纪气象云

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

123
返回列表 发新帖
楼主: Murilo
收起左侧

[南半球] 2013年1月上旬澳洲西北部海域08S-Narelle

[复制链接]
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-11 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
1032Z
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-11 21:28 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Murilo 于 2013-1-11 21:30 编辑
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1245 UTC 11/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.1S
Longitude: 112.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [233 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 931 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS  ST T: D  0.5/6HRS


REMARKS:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive
eye now evident on visible and infra-red imagery. Intensity of 100 knots based
on the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 6.0 [eye pattern]. the surrounding shade
has fluctated between black and white with an OW eye. At times the eye has been
quite elongated
.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and
the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current
trend
. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler SSTs from
late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off
the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more
south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone
sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer
edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and
Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into
early next week.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2013-1-11 21:36 | 显示全部楼层
暖心扫描350hpa层面暖心显著,结构成熟,卫星分析T6.0,日间缺乏超低温云顶,估计入夜继续调强。
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-12 10:05 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0139 UTC 12/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 111.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 935 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W 0.5/6HRS


REMARKS:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle appears to have peaked in intensity overnight,
but recent imagery shows a weakness in the eastern eye wall, most evident on
microwave. Dvorak DT estimates have fluctuated between 5.0 and 6.5 from 17 to
23UTC with recent images trending down. The most recent three hour average would
indicate a FT of 5.5 although a CI of 6.0 is maintained suggesting an intensity
of 100 knots. AMSU/SATCON estimates are slightly lower.

Moderate easterly shear may be having an impact on the system and as the cyclone
moves south of 20S it should encounter sea surface temperatures less than 26C on
Sunday. Hence a weakening trend is forecast, but may remain at cyclone intensity
to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion is south southwest for the next 48 hours and then a more
southerly track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone
sufficiently off the coast that a coastal impact is not the likely scenario. The
greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the
Exmouth-Ningaloo area, as models suggest a slight expansion of gales on the
eastern side. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast
Narelle will be off the west coast later on Sunday and Monday to maintain a
precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast Saturday night
and Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides
above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay at least.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the Pilbara, the remnants of
the system may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state
from Sunday to Tuesday.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-12 10:24 | 显示全部楼层
巅峰已过,眼墙已损
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-12 11:00 | 显示全部楼层
巅峰期照

BOM在1121Z给了澳式5级旋风强度

压缩包是1107Z-1201Z每隔半小时的GIF动画
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......

08S.rar

148.48 KB, 下载次数: 0, 下载积分: 活力 -1

 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-12 15:35 | 显示全部楼层
开始减弱,红外风眼即将消失

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 12/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.2S
Longitude: 111.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 938 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS

REMARKS:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle peaked in intensity overnight and has weakened
in the last -9h
with the effects of some easterly shear and restricted outflow
on the eastern flank apparent
. Dvorak DT estimates have fluctuated between 5.0
and 5.5 in the past 5h, with the CI held at 6.0, consistent with ADT.
The effects of moderate easterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures [<26C
south of 20S]
on Sunday. Hence a weakening trend is forecast, but may remain at
cyclone intensity  to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The
greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the
Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the
coast Narelle will be later on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west
coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and on
Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above
the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay at least.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to
the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern
parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-13 09:59 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0037 UTC 13/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 21.2S
Longitude: 111.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [198 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS

REMARKS:


Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has continued to show a weakening trend during
the early hours of Sunday morning with the effects of cooler ocean temperatures
evident
. North easterly shear has reduced to around 10 knots at 18 UTC. Shear is
expected to remain low tomoderate
before westerly shear increases on Monday.

Dvorak DT estimates have fallen to 4.0 with the CI held at 4.5. ADT, AMSU and
SATCON are in agreement and final intensity estimate is 75 knots [10-min mean].

Weakening is expected to continue due to cooler SSTs, and accelerate on Monday
as the system is affected by westerly shear. Narelle is likely to remain a
cyclone until Tuesday when it should weaken below cyclone strength well off the
west coast.

Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The
greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the
Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the
coast Narelle will be on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west
coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast on Sunday, with
a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest
astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to
the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern
parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|世纪气象云 | | | 关于我们

GMT+8, 2021-6-24 05:58 , Processed in 0.031924 second(s), 19 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表