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[南半球] 2013年1月上旬澳洲西北部海域08S-Narelle

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发表于 2013-1-5 23:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 Murilo 于 2013-1-8 16:24 编辑

2013年1月初帝汶海西部热带扰动98S



世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明





报告人:Murilo
所属团队:21CMA
扰动编号:98S
编号时间:05  JAU  2013 12Z  
初始强度:15KT
扰动定位:9.9S  126.1E
存在区域:帝汶海西部
  
系统现状报告
   
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构一般;多频微波结构一般;云图螺旋性明显
   
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态较差;辐散状态较差;系统所处垂直风切较弱;系统所处海表温度29℃左右
   
3、系统现状其他分析:EC数值支持72小时后发展并沿澳洲西北海岸行进
   

   
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
  
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
  
4、世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
  
5、世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-6 10:08 | 显示全部楼层
略有加强
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-7 11:02 | 显示全部楼层
98S这是要抢在97S之前夺得08S的称号吧
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-7 20:48 | 显示全部楼层
BOM在06Z针对98S发布通报

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0647 UTC 07/01/2013
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.4S
Longitude: 120.9E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium


The environment is favourable for further development with deep moisture, upper
divergence
and vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is
expected to return to the standard rate as the system becomes more organised and
moves closer to the upper ridge axis.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-7 23:31 | 显示全部楼层
TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 071100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S 121.5E TO 13.4S 118.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 070932Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 120.9E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 081100Z.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-8 10:03 | 显示全部楼层
松巴岛以南,JTWC升格08S
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-8 10:09 | 显示全部楼层
BOM在0800Z的一报将强度提升至30KT,预计今晚或明早系统会加强为TS

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0054 UTC 08/01/2013
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 119.3E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [254 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium

Position based on 2232 UTC IR and Vis satellite image animation. Curvature of
convective bands difficult to find, though good central convection persists
slightly west of the system centre. Dvorak analysis yields 0.35 curved band,
DT=2-2.5, MET and PAT yield 2.5. FT based on PAT. Northeast vertical wind shear
may be reducing as the system becomes more organised.  

The environment is favourable for further development with deep moisture, upper
divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north
. Intensification
is expected at the standard rate as the system moves closer to the upper ridge
axis. TC formation is expected later today or early tomorrow, then ongoing
intensification as the TC moves further southwest.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-8 16:23 | 显示全部楼层
BOM命名“Narelle”


IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0617 UTC 08/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 118.4E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [276 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-8 16:45 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC#2 上看120KT,貌似中心开始组织云卷风眼
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-9 10:49 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Murilo 于 2013-1-9 10:50 编辑

08S快速加强,低层风眼已经组建完成
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