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楼主: Murilo
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[南半球] 2013年1月南印度洋09S-Emang(跨年扰动、16天修成正果)

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-12 13:27 | 显示全部楼层
1200Z
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-13 10:06 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC在121530Z针对97S再度发布TCFA,1221Z升格为09S,经受风切的重重阻挡,97S在被取消TCFA(022330Z)近10天后终于修成正果

20130113.0000.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.09SNINE.35kts-996mb-118S-804E.100pc.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-13 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC 158
WTIO30 FMEE 130015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  6
2.A POSITION 2013/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8 S / 80.4 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=2.5+
SINCE 2130Z, A 6 TO 7 TENS CURVED BAND HAS CONSOLIDATED ON METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.
NEVERTHELESS 1809Z ASCAT SWATH SUGGESTS WEAKER WINDS THAN AFOREMENTIONED MEAN DVORAK ANALYSIS (2.5
+). SYSTEM IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE AT 0000Z.
GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY EXISTS LOCALLY NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE EASTERLY ONGOING CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CLEARLY TODAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, MAINLY ON MONDAY AS A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-13 19:40 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC 642
WTIO30 FMEE 130720 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20122013
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMANG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 80.9 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=2.5+
SINCE 0000Z, GENERAL PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE EVOLVED. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SH
OW AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND. DT HAS MAINTAINED AT 2.5+ FOR THE LAST HOURS A
ND CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED EMANG BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES. MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN REVIEWED GREATER IN REGARD OF CURRENT CONFIGURATION. IT IS LIKELY THAT GALES FORCE WINDS ONLY EXISTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.

0300Z CIMSS DATA SHOW THAT EASTERLY CONSTRAINT IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY. FOR THE NEXT DAYS, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, MAINLY ON  MONDAY AS BOTH OUTFLOW CHANNELS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD.NNNN
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发表于 2013-1-18 10:44 | 显示全部楼层
系统活到了17日的下午,减弱为热带低压。虽然巅峰也就35kt,但是长气坚持还是值得一赞
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