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楼主: Murilo
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[南半球] 2012年12月下旬马达加斯加岛东北部热带风暴07S-Dumile

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-3 10:19 | 显示全部楼层
07S在0218Z一度发展出红外眼,0300Z红外眼消失,系统维持在强热带风暴的巅峰状态,预计07S将快速向西南西方向移动

ZCZC 747
WTIO30 FMEE 030050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20122013
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DUMILE)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 54.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 260 SW: 200 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP




THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED ON INFRA-RED IMAGERY. CENTRE POSITION HAS BEEN FIXED WITH THE
SCOPE OF NORTH RADAR OF LA REUNION. DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED WITHIN THE LAST HOURS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT MAXIMAL STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-3 18:31 | 显示全部楼层
VIS风眼可见,将从阿留旺西部海域穿过
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-4 12:13 | 显示全部楼层
西北象限眼强已经开始受到冷水的侵蚀,法国-70KT,很快就将减弱

ZCZC 461
WTIO30 FMEE 040050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20122013
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (DUMILE)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 54.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL
ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 290 SE: 410 SW: 240 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 260 SW: 200 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

MICROWAVE FROM THIS NIGHT SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL IS SEVERELY ERODED IN
ITS NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
. A RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED ON CONVENTIONNAL
IMAGERY AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ALL AT 4.5 ...THEREFORE, THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT ..BUT THE WEAKNING TREND SHOULD
START SOON
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-4 12:17 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC-70KT  将快速向东南方向移动
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-5 09:51 | 显示全部楼层
法国降格为温带低气压-55KT

ZCZC 305
WTIO30 FMEE 050013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20122013
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION  5  (DUMILE)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 56.7 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL
SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 300 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



LAST AVAILABLE INFRA-RED PICTURES AND NOAA18 MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 2306Z
SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS SWEPT EAST SOUTH-EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTRE,
UNDER GOING  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND FIELD APPEARS LESS
SYMMETRICAL WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST EXTENSIONS INTO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
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