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[南半球] 2012年12月下旬澳洲西北部06S-Mitchell

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发表于 2012-12-28 13:55 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2012年12月下旬澳洲西北部热带扰动95S



世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明





报告人:Murilo
所属团队:21CMA
扰动编号:95S
编号时间:27  DEC  2012   06Z
初始强度:15KT
扰动定位:13.1S  112.7E
存在区域:澳洲西北部
  
系统现状报告
   
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构良好;云图螺旋性明显
   
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态较差;辐散状态一般;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度28℃
   
3、系统现状其他分析:SSD卫星分析T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
  
  
   
   
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
  
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
  
4、世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
  
5、世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-28 13:57 | 显示全部楼层
TXXS24 KNES 280015
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95S)

B.  27/2332Z

C.  14.7S

D.  111.4E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3 WH BAND. PT=2.0. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...SCHWARTZ
 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-28 18:29 | 显示全部楼层
美军TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 280930
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271430Z DEC 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 271430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S 111.8E TO 20.5S 109.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 280630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 111.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290930Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 163.7E
//
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-28 18:33 | 显示全部楼层
BOM也有反应

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0655 UTC 28/12/2012
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 111.7E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [189 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-29 09:34 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC95S升格为06S
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-29 09:36 | 显示全部楼层
BOM命名:

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0101 UTC 29/12/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 110.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRSPressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-30 10:04 | 显示全部楼层
短暂的生命史,已经走向衰亡
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-30 10:08 | 显示全部楼层
BOM将Mitchell判定为温带气旋:

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0156 UTC 30/12/2012
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 21.1S
Longitude: 110.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [175 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.5/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-31 09:23 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC在3006Z已经发布FW,目前已被降格为低压。未能等到07S出现后的3旋共舞局面
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