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楼主: Murilo
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[南半球] 2012年12月下旬所罗门群岛05P-Freda

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-1 10:41 | 显示全部楼层
这风切变也太给力了,直接把105KT的3级旋风切得面目全非,05P的外围云系开始影响新咯里多尼亚
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-1 10:46 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 01/0201 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 975HPA CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S  161.3E AT 010000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60
KNOTS
.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,  
             ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO
SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 28 DEGRESS CELCIUS
.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN OF DISTANCE 10NMI INTO DEEP
CONVECTION EDGE YIELDING DT=3.5. MET=3.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT,
THUS YEILDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT AND THEN SOUTHEAST
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-2 17:47 | 显示全部楼层
早在2日凌晨斐济官方就降格了05P 为温带低压并发布了最后一报,目前Freda的残留云系正在影响新咯里多尼亚
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 01/1912 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F EX-TC FREDA CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.8S 163.1E AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
8 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.


ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD
TOPS WARMING WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING PAST 6 HOURS AND BEING
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRNOMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 75 NM FROM CONVECTION YIELDING DT=2.0.
MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0 FT BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING T2.0/2.5/W2.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT AND FURTHER
WEAKENING.



THIS WILL THE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC FREDA.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-2 17:58 | 显示全部楼层
同样JTWC也是在今天早上0030Z发布了FW
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-3 09:59 | 显示全部楼层
05P这难道是要起死回生吗?
JTWC-45KT
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-3 10:02 | 显示全部楼层
斐济方面也对该系统留下后路
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 02/2307 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F EX-TC FREDA CENTRE [991HPA] LOCATED NEAR
21.0S 167.5E AT 022100 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON VIS/IR MTSAT
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD05F MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR WITH LLCC EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TD05F LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS
.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITHOUT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REDEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-4 12:05 | 显示全部楼层
斐济以南海域,05P还在和强风切做着顽强的对抗

JTWC--40KT
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