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楼主: Murilo
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[南半球] 2012年12月斐济北部旋风04P-Evan

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发表于 2012-12-17 19:36 | 显示全部楼层
20121217.1030.mtsat1r.x.wv1km.04PEVAN.115kts-937mb-179S-1773E.100pc.jpg

115KTS,巅峰过了?有没有啥实况可以看看呢~
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发表于 2012-12-17 21:31 | 显示全部楼层
捞J降110KTS~

20121217.1230.mtsat1r.x.ir1km.04PEVAN.110kts-941mb-188S-1773E.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2012-12-17 21:39 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS26 KNES 171201
TCSWSP

A.  04P (EVAN)

B.  17/1130Z

C.  18.8S

D.  177.3E

E.  ONE/MTSAT

F.  T5.0/6.0/W1.5/12HRS

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS A DT OF
5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

        NIL


...GUILLOT
 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-18 09:35 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS26 KNES 180054
TCSWSP

A.  04P (EVAN)

B.  17/2330Z

C.  20.4S

D.  177.3E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T5.0/5.0/w1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...DT OF 5.0 BASED ON 14/10 VIS BANDING EYE YIELDING A CF OF
4.5 WITH 0.5 ADDED BASED ON NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT MEETING THE CRITERIA
TO ADD FOR BANDING.  MET AND PT ARE 5.0.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

        NIL


...LIDDICK
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-18 18:27 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A30 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 18/0827 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.9S 177.6E AT 180600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
6 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
             OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT OVER LLCC PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES EAST
OF AN UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES IN A
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH B SURROUND GIVING DT OF 5.0,
MET=4.5, PT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET. CI HELD UP DUE TO INITIAL
WEAKENING, THUS YIELDS T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-18 18:30 | 显示全部楼层
04P对斐济的影响接近尾声,低层眼墙已经受损,JTWC已经降格为95KT的2级旋风,
贴一张昨天04P靠近斐济西部的雷达图
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-18 18:39 | 显示全部楼层
20121217.1030.mtsat1r.x.wv1km.04PEVAN.115kts-937mb-179S-1773E.100pc.jpg

115KTS,巅峰过了?有没有啥实况可以看看呢~
且听风铃 发表于 2012-12-17 19:36



我就找打了这个降雨的{:soso__5502536776640895251_3:}
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-19 09:30 | 显示全部楼层
强度快速减弱


TXPS26 KNES 190044
TCSWSP

A.  04P (EVAN)

B.  18/2330Z

C.  22.8S

D.  177.9E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T2.5/3.5/W2.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H.  REMARKS...EXPOSED LLCC IS LESS THAN 3/4 DEGREES AWAY FROM ACTIVE
CONVECTION
WHICH WOULD NORMALLY YIELD A DT OF 2.5 HOWEVER THE CONVECTION
DOES NOT MEET THE SIZE REQUIREMENT OF 1.5 DEGREES IN DIAMETER THUS
FINAL DT IS 2.0.  MET IS 3.0 WITH PT OF 2.5.  DT IS CLEAR CUT HOWEVER
6 HR AVERAGE DT IS 2.5 THUS NOT ALLOWING RULES TO BE BROKEN FOR FT.
FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS OF A 1.5 T-NO CHANGE IN 12 HOURS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    18/1757Z 22.3S 177.3E SSMIS
    18/2034Z 22.6S 177.6E SSMIS


...LIDDICK
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-20 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
昨晚8点(北京时间)斐济方面已经将其降格为温带低气压,等待下个月斐济出月度报告时在找一些当地的实测记录贴上


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A34 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 19/1338 UTC 2012 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 999HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.2S 178.8E AT 191200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  

DEEP CONVECTION REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS AND LIES TO SE OF
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 100NM SHEARED
DISTANCE FROM DEEP CONVECTION EDGE YIELDING DT OF 2.0, MET=2.5,
PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDS T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24HRS. CYCLONE
DE-CLASSIFIED.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN.
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