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[南半球] 2012年12月斐济北部旋风04P-Evan

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-15 10:55 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 15/0154 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 174.5W AT 150000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
             ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
             ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRES IN NW
QUADRANT AND
                            WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS OVER LLCC. EYE DISCERNIBLE
IN VIS IMAGERY. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBD CENTRE W SURROUND YIELDING DT OF 5.5. MET = 5.5, PT = 5.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
THUS, T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR  FOR FIJI ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 10:35am on Saturday the 15th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG WITH AVERAGE SPPEDS
OF 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KM/HR FROM SUNDAY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM MONDAY
. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
FOR NORTHERN LAU, NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS AND VATU -I-RA PASSAGE
LATER TODAY. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS MAY INCREASE FURTHER TO
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH HIGH SEAS FROM SUNDAY. HEAVY SWELLS.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS FROM SUNDAY. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM SUNDAY.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-15 20:41 | 显示全部楼层
眼睛
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发表于 2012-12-16 00:09 | 显示全部楼层
20121215.1552.goes15.x.ir1km.04PEVAN.90kts-956mb-133S-1768W.80pc.jpg

变成一大块东西了
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发表于 2012-12-16 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
20121215.2352.goes15.x.vis1km_high.04PEVAN.100kts-948mb-134S-1777W.95pc.jpg

风眼再现?
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发表于 2012-12-16 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS26 KNES 160020
TCSWSP

A.  04P (EVAN)

B.  15/2330Z

C.  14.1S

D.  178.9W

E.  ONE/MTSAT

F.  T5.5/5.5/D1.0/18HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H.  REMARKS...W EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG YIELDS A DT
OF 5.5. MET = 5.0. PT = 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    15/1927Z 13.5S 178.5W SSMIS
    15/2145Z 13.7S 178.5W AMSU


...GUILLOT
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发表于 2012-12-16 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
出去前再发一帖,已经105KTS了

20121216.0222.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.04PEVAN.105kts-944mb-140S-1789W.71pc.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-16 11:02 | 显示全部楼层
0222Z   VIS 风眼不太规则,对流薄弱不一
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-16 19:44 | 显示全部楼层
低层眼调整完成
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-17 09:43 | 显示全部楼层
进一步增强-125KT,VIS风眼显现,但眼区稍显粗糙,风眼已经接触到维提岛西北部。Evan将沿着斐济维提岛西部沿海南下,斐济遭受重创


TXPS26 KNES 170007
TCSWSP

A.  04P (EVAN)

B.  16/2330Z

C.  17.2S

D.  177.7E

E.  ONE/MTSAT

F.  T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...DT=6.5 BASED ON WH SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH DG EYE
EMBEDDED BY CMG. PT=6.5. MET=6.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

        NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-17 17:48 | 显示全部楼层
擦过斐济西部,向南移动,眼墙东侧受到岛屿的影响有所减弱


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A26 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 17/0727 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 177.2E AT 170600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
             ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
             ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT.

RAGGED EYE DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGERY. EYE WELL DEFINE IN NADI RADAR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBD CENTRE W SURROUND YIELDING DT OF 5.0. MET=6.0, PT=5.5. FT BASED
ON PT. THUS YIELDS T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS. CI HELD UP DUE TO INITIAL
WEAKENING OF CYCLONE THROUGH LAND INTERACTION.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS,
WEAKENING IT AFTER 12 HOURS.
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