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[南半球] 2012年12月斐济北部旋风04P-Evan

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发表于 2012-12-11 09:58 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2012年12月斐济北部热带扰动91P




世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明





报告人:Murilo
所属团队:21CMA
扰动编号:91P
编号时间:09   DEC  2010  06Z
初始强度:15KT
扰动定位:14.0S  178.0E
存在区域:斐济北部海域
  
系统现状报告
   
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构良好;云图螺旋性良好
   
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态良好;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切较弱;系统所处海表温度27℃
   
3、系统现状其他分析: 经过不到两天的发展,位于斐济岛北部的低压区很快发展,并调整出明显的螺旋性,借助高层弱反气旋流场带来的良好幅散,预计系统将很快加强至旋风强度,目前其外围云系已经影响到了位于斐济岛东北方向的瓦努阿岛
   
      
   
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
  
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
  
4、世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
  
5、世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。



下面是RSMC斐济气象服务中心1004Z的官方报文,91P已经编号为04F,位于其东方的92P编号为03F

Potential Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Depression TD03F was analysed near 18.2S 158.2W at 100300 UTC. The potential for this
system to develop into a Tropical Cyclone in each of the next three days is LOW.

Another Tropical Depression TD04F was analysed near 14.4S 178.2W at 100300 UTC. The potential for
this system to develop into a Tropical Cyclone tomorrow is LOW. The potential for TD04F to form into a
Tropical Cyclone on the following two days is MODEARTE.
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组图打开中,请稍候......

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-11 19:20 | 显示全部楼层
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED //
WTPS21 PGTW 110500 COR
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S 179.7W TO 13.5S 172.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110222Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 178.8W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-12 09:56 | 显示全部楼层
回马枪袭击斐济

MEDIA RELEASE

4 PM Tuesday 11th   December 2012

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F

A Tropical Depression TD 04F [999 hPa] centre was located near 14.7 South latitude and
178.8 West longitude or about 320km north-northeast of Labasa at 4pm today. It is moving
towards the  east, away from Fiji, at 09 knots. The Depression is intensifying and has a
moderate probability of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, but high in the
next 48 hours.

At this stage,  TD 04F is anticipated to  continue tracking eastwards to Samoa as a tropical
depression, where during Thursday or Friday, turn back towards Fiji. Global numerical weather
guidance products  are  agreeing on this system re-curving as a tropical cyclone and to directly
impact Fiji from Sunday 16th  December.


Subsequently, Fiji needs to be prepared and ready, now.
At the time  this release is being prepared,  the heavy rain warning  previously in force for the
Northern Division and Northern Lau is cancelled. Fine weather should return to the country apart
from trade showers and a few afternoon or evening thunderstorms about the interior and western
parts of main islands.

track.jpg



稍早前的扫描,有半个眼墙。。

20121211_1744_f17_x_colorpct_91h_91v_1deg_04PFOUR_30kts-1000mb-145S-1767W_68pc.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-12 17:40 | 显示全部楼层
MEDIA RELEASE

4 PM Wednesday 12th December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN”

Tropical  Depression  TD  04F  was upgraded and named Tropical Cyclone  (TC)  Evan
around 2.30pm today.
TC Evan [995 hPa] Category (CAT) 1 centre was located near 14.2
South latitude  and  174.5 West longitude  or about  300 km west of Apia,  Samoa, at  3pm
today. It is moving towards the east at 20km/hr. The cyclone is intensifying and may reach
Category 2, or storm force, in the next 24 to 48 hours.

On this track, the cyclone centre is expected to make landfall over Savaii, Samoa, tonight, before
making a u-turn towards the south, over Samoa still, and head back towards the west, later on
Friday 14th December.

If Evan maintains its  projected  track  and intensity trend  after  leaving Samoa, it should move
across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and  arrive into the Fiji waters by Sunday 16th  December, at least as a CAT 2. Additionally, ahead of this cyclone, as it heads for Fiji, damaging heavy easterly swells are expected. These can cause damages to, and sea flooding of, low-lying coastal areas.

All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid
unnecessary loss of lives and/or property
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-13 09:24 | 显示全部楼层
肆虐萨摩亚,65KT--1级旋风
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-13 11:59 | 显示全部楼层
VIS眼可见,中心位于萨摩亚乌波卢岛以南近海


20121212_2152_goes15_x_vis1km_high_04PEVAN_65kts-974mb-141S-1720W_100pc.jpg

斐济强度
Time (UTC)     Intensity Category     Latitude(decimal deg.)    Longitude(decimal deg.)        Estimated PositionAccuracy (km)
0hr 00Z am December 13  2  14.0S  171.5W    55


65660.gif
 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-13 16:00 | 显示全部楼层
斐济最新的一报,协调世界时1304Z

MEDIA RELEASE

4pm Thursday 13th   December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN”
Tropical Cyclone Evan [985 hPa] Category (CAT) 2 centre was located near  14.0 South
latitude  and  172.5 West longitude  or about  40 km southeast of Apia, Samoa, or 910 km
east-northeast of Lakeba, Fiji, at 2pm today. It is still moving towards the east at 12 km/hr,
but anticipated to re-curve towards the west from later tonight. The cyclone is intensifying
and expected to attain Cat 3, hurricane force, in the next 24 hours.
At this stage, and on its projected track as well as intensity trend, TC Evan should move across
the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters by Sunday 16th  December,
as a CAT 3 severe tropical cyclone
.
If this happens,  damaging heavy easterly waves/swells will precede the cyclone. At this time,
sustained winds over Fiji are anticipated to be around or above 64 knots. Associated momentary
gusts will be a lot higher.
All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid
unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.
 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-13 20:40 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/0749 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 171.2W AT 130600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
3 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
             ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
         AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
            
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFIED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.  DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE
LG SURROUND YIELDING DT OF 4.5. MET = 4.0, PT = 4.5. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS FOR THE
NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING IT WESTWARDS.
 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-14 09:52 | 显示全部楼层
逆时针扰萨摩亚一圈,要正面袭击斐济么?
JTWC上调至100KT的3级飓风,VIS风眼较昨天模糊,低层扫描有一隐约可辨的细小风眼
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-12-14 10:02 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/1953 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 171.6W AT 131800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS
IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NE
QUADRANT                  
             AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SE QUADRANT         
   
             AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SW QUADRANT         

             AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NW QUADRANT.
            
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. SYSTEM LIES IN
A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE CMG SURROUND
YIELDING DT OF 5.0. MET = 5.0, PT = 5.0. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RECURVE THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 06
HOURS BEFORE MOVING IT WEST-SOUTHWEST.
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