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[南半球] 2012年11月南太热带扰动97P

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发表于 2012-11-20 14:53 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2012年11月南太热带扰动97P




世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明







报告人:Murilo
所属团队:21CMA
扰动编号:97P
编号时间:19  NOV  2012  06Z
初始强度:15KT
扰动定位:8.9S  170.6E
存在区域:瓦努阿图北部洋面
  
系统现状报告
   
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构良好;云图螺旋性明显
   
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态良好;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切中等偏弱;系统所处海表温度27℃
   
3、系统现状其他分析系统于1906Z编号,JTWC在200230Z发布TCFA;RSMC斐济气象服务中心也已经将其升格为TD-02F,并预计其将在未来的24小时内加强为热带风暴;但由于风切条件的不理想,对于系统的命名仍有变数。
   
数值预报
   
EC数值预报发展机会中等,向南偏东方向移动
  
     
   
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
  
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
  
4、世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
  
5、世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。




SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPS21 PGTW 200230
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 167.8E TO 15.6S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 167.9E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.



TCFA.gif




4 PM Tuesday 20th November 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD02F
A Tropical Depression TD 02F [1004hPa] centre was located near 10.0 South latitude and 168.2 East longitude or about 865km north of Port Vila, Vanuatu, or 1320 km north-west of Nadi at 3pm today. It is currently slow moving but expected to move towards the south in the next 24 hours, before turning and accelerating towards the southeast.
The Depression is intensifying and has a moderate probability of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. However, from Thursday, the system is expected to be moving into an area of unfavourable conditions, which will significantly reduce its chances of developing into a tropical cyclone, thus, remain as a tropical depression, as it heads into the high seas
At this stage, the TD02F is not expected to directly affect Fiji. However, from Wednesday night and into Thursday, the associated active rain bands will bring rain, heavy at times, over the country with possibly strong and gusty northwest winds and squally thunderstorms .



20121120_0430_mtsat1r_x_vis2km_97PINVEST_30kts-1000mb-97S-1679E_100pc.jpg

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发表于 2012-11-20 19:55 | 显示全部楼层
这是21CMA的第10000个主题帖!!!希望这个系统能够发展成为02P,南半球本季第二个热带气旋
 楼主| 发表于 2012-11-21 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
TXPS24 KNES 210630
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)

B.  21/0530Z

C.  13.1S

D.  165.9E

E.  FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER AS DEFINED BY CU FIELD IN VISIBLE
ANIMATION IS MOSTLY EXPOSED WEST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
. DEBRIS
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY OBSCURING CLOUD FIELD AND HINDERING
CENTER LOCATION. 2 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG SPIRAL GIVES DT=1.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2012-11-22 09:39 | 显示全部楼层
瓦努阿图:调低了对97P的期望,认为其不可能增强为热带风暴了。风切仍然不理想,强对流集中在中心东部,LLCC外露

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue throughout Vanuatu. Flooding is also expected over low lying areas and areas close to the river banks. A Strong Wind Warning for mariners is current for all coastal waters
of Vanuatu. A Severe Weather Warning is also current throughout Vanuatu. Strong inland Winds of 40 to 60 KM/HR are expected over parts of Torba, Sanma and Penama provinces later today, but will subside as the system moves further southeast and away from Vanuatu.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2012-11-22 21:48 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC取消了TCFA,风切断送了97P的前程,强对流区有扫到斐济西南部
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
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