1412号台风“娜基莉”官方机构预报专帖

海绵宝宝

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 31 July 2014

<Analyses at 31/09 UTC>
Scale        Large
Intensity        -
Center position        N25°35'(25.6°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement        NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure        985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed        20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more        NE700km(375NM)
SW500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 31/21 UTC>
Intensity        -
Center position of probability circle        N27°40'(27.7°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement        NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure        980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed        23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle        90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 01/09 UTC>
Intensity        -
Center position of probability circle        N29°55'(29.9°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement        NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure        980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed        23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle        140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity        -
Center position of probability circle        N32°20'(32.3°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement        N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure        985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle        200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity        -
Center position of probability circle        N34°00'(34.0°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement        N Slowly
Central pressure        990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle        300km(160NM)

将臣

台風第12号 (ナクリー)
平成26年08月01日00時45分 発表

<01日00時の実況>
大きさ	大型
強さ	-
存在地域	那覇市の西南西約50km
中心位置	北緯 26度00分(26.0度)
	東経 127度20分(127.3度)
進行方向、速さ	北 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧	985hPa
最大風速	23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速	35m/s(65kt)
15m/s以上の強風域	北東側 700km(375NM)
	南西側 500km(270NM)
<02日00時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	チェジュ島の南南西約360km
予報円の中心	北緯 30度20分(30.3度)
	東経 125度30分(125.5度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧	980hPa
最大風速	23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速	35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径	140km(75NM)
<02日21時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	チェジュ島の西約210km
予報円の中心	北緯 32度55分(32.9度)
	東経 124度20分(124.3度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧	985hPa
最大風速	20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速	30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径	200km(110NM)
<03日21時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	黄海
予報円の中心	北緯 34度00分(34.0度)
	東経 123度40分(123.7度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧	990hPa
最大風速	18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速	25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径	300km(160NM)
<04日21時の予報>
存在地域	黄海
予報円の中心	北緯 34度35分(34.6度)
	東経 123度40分(123.7度)
進行方向、速さ	ほとんど停滞
予報円の半径	370km(200NM)
<05日21時の予報>
存在地域	黄海
予報円の中心	北緯 35度30分(35.5度)
	東経 124度20分(124.3度)
進行方向、速さ	北北東 ゆっくり
予報円の半径	480km(260NM)

将臣

中央气象台报文：预测巅峰台风级别。。。

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 311500 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 311500 UTC
00HR 26.5N 126.4E 986HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 330KM NORTHEAST
400KM SOUTHEAST
380KM SOUTHWEST
330KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 20KM/H
P+06HR 27.6N 126.1E 985HPA 23M/S
P+12HR 28.7N 125.8E 983HPA 25M/S
P+18HR 29.7N 125.4E 980HPA 28M/S
P+24HR 30.7N 125.0E 975HPA 30M/S
P+36HR 32.4N 124.2E 970HPA 33M/S
P+48HR 33.6N 123.7E 975HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 34.6N 123.3E 980HPA 28M/S
P+72HR 35.2N 123.2E 988HPA 20M/S
P+96HR 36.2N 123.1E 993HPA 18M/S
P+120HR 37.1N 123.1E 998HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

海绵宝宝

中央台和JTWC怎么相差这么大{:soso_e114:}
ABPW10 PGTW 312300                                          
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.3N
127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON DEPRESSION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EXTENDED PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL WINDS AT 10 TO
20 KNOTS AROUND A GROSSLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS IT GAINED
LATITUDE. HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO EVEN HIGHER VWS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND REDUCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 987 MB. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
312230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. IN VIEW OF THE DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.

将臣

台風第12号 (ナクリー)
平成26年08月01日09時50分 発表

<01日09時の実況>
大きさ	大型
強さ	-
存在地域	徳之島の西北西約180km
中心位置	北緯 28度30分(28.5度)
	東経 127度20分(127.3度)
進行方向、速さ	北 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧	980hPa
最大風速	30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速	40m/s(80kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域	東側 240km(130NM)
	西側 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域	全域 650km(350NM)
<01日21時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	東シナ海
予報円の中心	北緯 30度40分(30.7度)
	東経 126度10分(126.2度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧	980hPa
最大風速	30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速	40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径	90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域	東側 330km(180NM)
	西側 200km(110NM)
<02日09時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	チェジュ島の南西約150km
予報円の中心	北緯 32度20分(32.3度)
	東経 125度30分(125.5度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧	980hPa
最大風速	30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速	40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径	130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域	東側 370km(200NM)
	西側 240km(130NM)
<03日09時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	黄海
予報円の中心	北緯 34度20分(34.3度)
	東経 124度35分(124.6度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧	985hPa
最大風速	25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速	35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径	200km(110NM)
<04日09時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	黄海
予報円の中心	北緯 35度30分(35.5度)
	東経 124度10分(124.2度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧	990hPa
最大風速	23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速	35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径	300km(160NM)

CMFCN

中央气象台：

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 011500 CCB
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 011500 UTC
00HR 30.7N 125.5E 982HPA 25M/S
30KTS WINDS 380KM NORTHEAST
420KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
400KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 18KM/H
P+06HR 31.7N 125.0E 980HPA 28M/S
P+12HR 32.7N 124.5E 983HPA 25M/S
P+18HR 33.4N 124.4E 985HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 34.0N 124.4E 985HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 35.2N 124.4E 990HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 36.1N 124.7E 995HPA 18M/S
P+60HR 36.6N 125.5E 995HPA 16M/S
P+72HR 37.1N 126.6E 998HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

将臣

WDPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND THE CURRENT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 90 TO 110
NM BASED ON A 020159Z ASCAT IMAGE. A 021204Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM. A 020437Z AMSU CROSS-
SECTION SUPPORTS A WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND SHOWS A DEFINED WARM ANOMALY
OF +2C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT 25 TO 26C. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).   
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS NAKRI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SHARPLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE STR AND INTO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS
12W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST,
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA WITH THE REMNANTS EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA AFTER TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN